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The 2026 Osun State governorship election recorded a significant increase in voter participation, while the wider margin of victory made the contest more competitive and difficult to manipulate, the Athena Election Observatory (AEO) has said in its report.
The election observer group, in its latest report comparing the 2026 election with the 2022 governorship poll, said the number of registered voters in the state increased from 1,952,387 in 2022 to 2,339,544 in 2026.
This, the group said, represents an increase of 387,157 voters, or 19.8 per cent.
It also said the number of voters accredited to participate in the election rose from 827,218 in 2022 to 1,010,684 in 2026, while total votes cast increased from 823,124 to 1,005,800.
According to the report, valid votes rose from 804,450 in 2022 to 985,079 in 2026, while rejected votes increased from 18,674 to 20,721.
Despite the increase in voter numbers, the proportion of registered voters who actually participated changed only slightly, rising from 42.37 per cent in 2022 to 43.20 per cent in 2026.
The observatory said the increased number of voters who participated in the election showed that more people took part in the 2026 contest, even though the overall participation rate remained relatively stable.
The report also showed that both the winner, Governor Ademola Adeleke, and the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Munirudeen Oyebamiji, secured more votes than the leading candidates recorded by their respective parties in 2022.
Adeleke, who contested the 2022 election on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), won with 403,371 votes.
In the 2026 election, he secured 511,067 votes, representing 51.90 per cent of the valid votes.
Oyebamiji, the APC candidate, polled 444,815 votes, representing 45.17 per cent.
In 2022, former Governor Gboyega Oyetola of the APC scored 375,027 votes, while Adeleke defeated him by 28,344 votes. In 2026, Adeleke’s margin increased to 66,252 votes.
The AEO said the wider margin, combined with the strong showing of both major candidates, reflected intense competition in the election.
It said strong competition could make it more difficult for anyone to manipulate an election because rival parties were more likely to have people monitoring voting and counting at polling stations across the state.
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The observatory said the growth in the number of voters and the ability of the major political parties to mobilise supporters across the state were important developments.
It said political parties with strong structures and people monitoring the process at polling units were better positioned to detect and challenge irregularities.
According to the group, the level of competition in Osun meant that any attempt to interfere with the election on a large scale would be more difficult to carry out without attracting attention.
The report also noted that the larger number of voters meant that attempts to influence the outcome through widespread vote buying would require greater resources.
Technology improves election records
The AEO also acknowledged improvements in the use of technology during the election, particularly the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the online publication of polling-unit results.
It said these measures were helping to create better records of what happened at polling stations and making it easier to check results after the election.
However, the organisation said there were still areas that needed improvement, including delays in uploading results, the speed and reliability of the systems, and the need to ensure that figures recorded at polling units match those eventually declared.
The observatory said its work would now move beyond monitoring the election to checking the available records from polling units against the final results declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
It said it would examine voting records, voter accreditation figures and official result sheets to determine whether the complete record of the election supports the result declared by INEC.
The AEO stressed that the exercise was not about deciding who should have won the election.
Rather, it said the purpose was to establish whether the declared result was supported by the available records.
The organisation described the INEC-declared results as final and rated its comparative findings with a high level of confidence, while promising further scrutiny of the electoral records as part of its post-election review.
