The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) saw a decline in crude oil output in May 2025, as several member nations imposed voluntary cuts to compensate for previous breaches of agreed production limits.
According to OPEC’s monthly report released by its Vienna-based secretariat, eight key members of the alliance increased their production by 154,000 barrels per day. This figure, however, fell significantly short of the headline increase of 411,000 barrels per day outlined in the group’s current agreement.
Among the countries enforcing compensatory cuts were Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia—all of which had previously exceeded their quotas. Despite these efforts, the combined output of the eight nations remained nearly 400,000 barrels per day above target, primarily due to Kazakhstan’s continued overproduction.
Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, has been driving the group to accelerate production increases as a form of market discipline. Riyadh’s strategy is aimed at pressuring countries that have exceeded their quotas by allowing lower prices to prevail, while also attempting to claw back market share lost during years of output restrictions.
While this push initially exerted downward pressure on prices, the market has recently been rattled by geopolitical tensions. A sharp escalation occurred when Israel launched a wave of attacks on Iran, an OPEC member, including strikes on domestic energy infrastructure. As a result, U.S. crude futures surged—climbing on Friday by the most in three years—and are now trading near $73 per barrel.
Despite the flare-up, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais maintained that no immediate intervention from the cartel was necessary. “We are monitoring the situation closely, but at this point, the market does not require urgent action,” he said.
The report revealed that while some members adhered to their pledged increases, others fell short or made adjustments. Saudi Arabia largely followed through on its mandated rise, boosting output by 177,000 barrels per day to an average of 9.183 million barrels per day.
Iraq and Kazakhstan, which had promised additional reductions to make up for earlier non-compliance, trimmed output in May. Kazakhstan reduced production by 21,000 barrels to 1.8 million barrels per day, while Iraq cut 49,000 barrels, bringing its total to 3.93 million barrels per day. Russia maintained flat output, in line with its compensation commitment.
Nevertheless, Kazakhstan remained significantly above its assigned quota, a persistent source of tension within the alliance. “The overproduction from Kazakhstan continues to undermine collective efforts,” an industry insider noted.
Across the broader 22-nation OPEC+ alliance, total production in May rose by 180,000 barrels per day to 41.23 million barrels per day—an increase from April’s 40.92 million barrels per day. The group, however, kept its forecasts for global oil demand and non-OPEC supply largely unchanged.
Nigeria, for its part, reported an average daily production of 1.453 million barrels in May, according to OPEC’s data.
The group is scheduled to reconvene via video conference on July 6 to review market conditions and discuss the possibility of further increasing output in August. Sources familiar with Saudi Arabia’s position said Riyadh is keen on pushing for more aggressive hikes in order to regain lost market share.
The OPEC Declaration of Cooperation (DoC)—the foundational agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers such as Russia—continues to serve as the framework for managing output and stabilizing global oil markets amid both economic and geopolitical volatility.