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•Gains may be short-lived –Experts
By Uche Usim
Global oil prices are expected to spike sharply after United States forces carried out targeted airstrikes on Iran’s major nuclear facilities, escalating tensions in one of the world’s most volatile energy-producing regions.
Early Sunday, the United States President, Donald Trump, confirmed that American forces had struck three of Iran’s critical nuclear sites, Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, drawing the United States deeper into a conflict that has simmered since Israel launched an expansive air campaign just over a week ago.
The geopolitical shockwaves from the attack are expected to reverberate through energy markets as investors brace for possible retaliation from Tehran and wider instability across the Gulf.
Analysts at energy research firm, Kpler, forecast that crude prices could surge as much as 10% in the immediate aftermath, though they caution the spike may not hold.
“Expect oil to open with a sharp 7–10% gap up as risk premiums surge. But don’t be fooled, this may not last,” Kpler posted on X.
Based on Friday’s closing price for Brent crude (Nigeria’s crude grade), a 10% rally would lift the global benchmark to nearly $85 per barrel.
Despite the likelihood of an initial price shock, some mitigating factors could temper long-term market disruption. Kpler noted that Iran’s capacity for retaliation is constrained, and a complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil flows, or major attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure are considered unlikely for now.
The firm observed: “Freight disruptions will be the story to watch. The Mideast Gulf and Red Sea face heightened threat from Houthi attacks, and middle distillates, jet in particular, poised to benefit even more in the West of Suez.”
Market watchers also point to expectations that OPEC+ producers will ramp up supply to stabilise prices, which could dampen sustained upward pressure on oil.
Even so, the risks remain significant. Deutsche Bank’s head of FX research, George Saravelos, warned in a recent note that in a worst-case scenario, a total disruption of Iranian oil exports combined with closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prices could skyrocket to over $120 per barrel.
But any move by Iran to block the vital waterway would also cripple its own economy, as more than 90% of its oil exports head to China through those very lanes.
Such an action could put the survival of the Iranian regime in jeopardy, meaning Tehran’s response may take other forms.
Meanwhile, petroleum sector analysts say the coming days will be critical in determining whether the market faces an extended period of heightened volatility or if the initial price shock fades amid diplomatic or supply-side responses.
