Obi as Tinubu’s albatross

It has not just begun. President Bola Tinubu’s dragnet has been at work since he assumed office as the President of Nigeria. The untidy manner through which he got to the presidential seat prepared him early for the battle that was to come. The tricky situation put him on early alert that he needed to spread his tentacles, and win as many converts as possible to his side. The need for him to hold tight to the office he occupies is made more imperative by the quality of his challengers. Mr. Peter Obi, the wave that the Nigerian polity is confronted with, has remained Tinubu’s nightmare since the 2023 presidential election was won and lost. Tinubu understands so well that a moment of dullness on his part could sweep him out of office because Peter Obi is ceaselessly lurking in the shadows.

Given this state of affairs, Tinubu never took anything for granted. From the very beginning, he ensured that his lackeys were positioned for leadership roles in both chambers of the National Assembly. After getting a strong foothold in the legislature, Tinubu moved over to the judiciary. It did not take long before he ensured that their Lordships were at his beck and call.

But the irony in the Tinubu disposition lies in his strident push against the opposition. Tinubu is a product of opposition politics. But having crossed to the opposite spectrum of the political divide, Tinubu no longer brooks opposition. He is intolerant of it. Instead, he believes in conquest, in annihilation and strangulation. Whereas many who occupied the presidential seat before him concentrated their energies at the centre, Tinubu discovered early enough that he needed to look beyond Abuja. He saw an absolute need in penetrating and conquering the states. That was how he began to acquire governors. He has been doing that for months on end. Before he went for Chukwuma Soludo (Anambra)and Ademola Adeleke (Osun) last week, Tinubu had 31 governors in his camp. But with the uppercut he delivered to the opposition last week by securing the support of the two extra governors, the President now has 33 out of 36 governors all to himself.

Who are the odd men out? Governors Seyi Makinde and Bala Mohammed of Oyo and Bauchi states, respectively, are chieftains of the Allied Peoples Movement. Makinde is even the presidential candidate of the party. The two governors have left no one in doubt that they are not part of the Tinubu political clan.

The other odd governor is Alex Otti of Abia State. Where does he stand? Who is he loyal to? Otti appears to be an individual, figuratively speaking. An individual in this sense symbolizes a unique character who behaves in an unusual, independent way. Otti certainly fits into this description. As governor, he has never groveled before the President. He has not said or done anything that fits into the mould of sycophancy. While not kowtowing to the President, he has also not done anything to abuse or disrespect the President or his office.

Otti’s individuality also reflects in his relationship with Peter Obi. Regardless of the cult following that Obi enjoys, Otti seems to be unaffected by it. After his initial association with Obi, which, to some degree, earned him his governorship, Otti has been charting his own course. He has not been part of Obi’s political choices and affiliations. Given this disposition, it is difficult to fathom where Otti stands. Is he for Tinubu or is he for Obi? Is he for none of them? If that is the case, where does he go with his fierce independence? These are questions that demand attention as we situate Tinubu and his politics of gubernatorial acquisition.

One fact we cannot wish away in today’s Nigeria is that we live in unusual times. In Tinubu, Nigerians have a President whose unpopularity is unparalleled in the country’s history. But it is even much more unusual that the President who the people do not want is insisting on extending his tenure against the people’s will. To get what he wants, the President is doing what nobody has ever done in Nigerian politics. It is under Tinubu that we saw governors elected on the platform of other political parties defecting recklessly to the President’s party. No real or sensible reason was put up for their actions except that that is what the President wants. Those who, ordinarily, would have resisted the President’s plot fell ultimately on the altar of filthy lucre. Yet, the fact that the governors are massed up under one political party has not changed anything. The people are insisting that they will vote out Tinubu as President.

But Tinubu is not letting up or letting go. He is single-minded in his pursuit of his second term bid. His latest action of integrating the opposition into his campaigns is a measure of that. Last week, Tinubu, again, did what no Nigerian President before him has done before. He has brought even the opposition governors who did not join his party to be part of his re-election campaign. He wants them to deliver him in their states whether they belong to his political party or not. The latest recruits into this devious plot are Soludo and Adeleke. We will not worry so much about Adeleke because his position was already well known before now. After his re-election as governor, Adeleke declared that he would support Tinubu’s re-election because he and Tinubu are of the same ethnic stock.

What about Soludo? Tinubu’s attraction to this governor derives from his anti-Obi disposition. Soludo suffers an incurable migraine whenever and wherever Obi’s name is mentioned. Soludo was, therefore, so excited to play the role Tinubu has chosen him for. The calculation from Tinubu is that Soludo would whittle down Obi’s influence in Anambra.

But there is a counterpoise to all the stratagems that Tinubu is putting in place. That neutralizing factor is the Peter Obi persona. Tinubu is working so hard to outwit his opponents principally because Obi cannot be pigeonholed. Because of Obi, Tinubu cannot afford to sleep with two eyes closed. That explains the breathlessness that attends Tinubu’s efforts at gaining a second term advantage. In fact, Tinubu’s effort at conquering the country pales into insignificance whenever the Peter Obi phenomenon comes into play. In other words, the more Tinubu tries to assert his burning desire for re-election, the more setback he faces owing to the Peter Obi mania. In 2027, Tinubu may try to bulldoze his way to victory, but he is very likely to hit the rocks because Obi, the man with a protean personality, is ahead of him.