Follow Us on Google
…Says tax revenue hits N27trn, oil production, reserves improve
The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has said that the Nigerian economy is gradually emerging from years of severe economic difficulties, with key indicators showing stronger growth, improved external balances and greater stability following a series of “painful” reforms by President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
“The Nigerian economy has moved decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing,” the NRS said in an internal report.
The revenue service attributed the improvement to what it described as Tinubu’s economic management acumen and determination to implement reforms under the Renewed Hope Agenda, despite the hardship that followed some of the early policy decisions.
According to the report, the administration inherited “four mutually reinforcing distortions”: a fiscally unsustainable fuel subsidy regime, an opaque foreign exchange system that discouraged investment, an underperforming oil sector and a tax base “far below its potential”.
The NRS said the reforms initially brought significant economic pain but that the country was now beginning to see measurable gains across major economic indicators.
It cited retreating inflation, a turnaround in the balance of payments from deficit to surplus, increased oil production, Nigeria’s emergence as a net exporter of petroleum products, higher tax collections and a stronger capital market as evidence of the recovery.
The report also noted that the minimum wage had doubled between 2023 and 2026, while government policies and incentives had contributed to a reduction in the number of out-of-school children from 20 million to 18.3 million, according to estimates by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).
A major shift, according to the NRS, has occurred in the petroleum sector.
It said the government’s naira-for-crude arrangement with Dangote Refinery and other local refineries had helped Nigeria move from decades of dependence on imported petroleum products to becoming a net exporter.
Ghana, it added, had recently decided to pursue a similar policy in its oil sector.
Oil production has also increased significantly, rising from about 1.2-1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026. The figure represents about 104 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
The NRS said improved economic stability was also reflected in the performance of the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), whose market capitalisation rose from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026.
It attributed the market rally partly to improved macroeconomic credibility, banking-sector recapitalisation and a growing pool of domestic institutional investment.
Tax revenue has recorded an even bigger increase. According to the report, collections rose from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026.
The NRS linked the increase to the “digitisation of tax systems, four new tax reform laws, the transformation of the revenue service and an executive order that closed loopholes in the system”.
External reserves have also strengthened considerably. The report said reserves rose from an unrestricted $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion by July 2026, their highest level in 17 years.
Economic growth, meanwhile, accelerated from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2026.
Other News
The country’s balance of payments also swung from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026.
Nigeria’s trade position recorded a similar turnaround, moving from a marginal surplus of about N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.
The composition of exports is also changing. Although crude oil remains dominant, exports of other petroleum products rose by 51 per cent year-on-year to N6.78 trillion in Q1 2026.
Capital inflows have improved sharply as well. Annual capital importation increased from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, while inflows reached $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
The NRS said foreign portfolio investment had been particularly strong, while foreign direct investment had also improved.
The report also highlighted the expansion of compressed natural gas (CNG) as part of the government’s effort to reduce dependence on petrol and diesel.
It said more than 100,000 vehicles had been converted to CNG by 2026, attracting over $2 billion in investment and creating more than 10,000 jobs.
According to the report, CNG can reduce running costs by 40 to 60 per cent compared with petrol. For some commercial drivers, monthly fuel expenses reportedly fell from about N50,000 to N18,000 after conversion.
Food security has also received greater attention, following the declaration of a state of emergency on food security in July 2023.
Measures included releasing strategic grain reserves, establishing a N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, distributing fertiliser and expanding agricultural mechanisation.
Federal agricultural allocation rose from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget.
The report said food prices had fallen by about 50 per cent by March 2026, citing the Ministry of Agriculture, although it acknowledged that agriculture would require several planting seasons before increased government support could translate fully into higher output.
On debt, the NRS said the headline figures could be misleading. Although public debt rose from N87.4 trillion in 2023 to N159.28 trillion in late 2025, debt relative to the size of the economy declined.
The debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and 32.3 per cent in 2026, which the report described as the first sustained decline in more than a decade.
Debt servicing as a share of revenue has also fallen from 68 per cent to an IMF-projected 53 per cent.
The NRS said the figures suggest that Nigeria is moving beyond emergency economic management towards a more stable and resilient economy, although sustaining the gains would depend on continued reforms, stronger production and improved living standards.
