The botched quest for a consensus arrangement among four Northern aspirants in the determination of a section of the North to clinch the presidential candidate position of the the PDP has shown the level of dishonesty, deception and manipulation that characterise the purported concept of consensus as envisaged by power grabbers in modern day Nigeria. We have always maintained in this column that Consensus ad idem means agreement of minds, not just bodies. It is a legal terminology which is a condition precedent for valid contracts. A contract is an agreement between parties which is legally binding. Agreement should be among equals not between equals and a superior power. It should be conducted in an atmosphere of freedom not intimidation or manipulation. Consensus simply means that everybody agreed on a particular thing or person. It should be a situation where one contestant emerges unopposed. Whenever there’s a third party that is allowed to determine the outcome of the arrangement, it is no longer consensus, it’s an election within election and when that power is a superior power to the contestants, it becomes a compulsion in consensus. 
The four contestants, Saraki, Tambuwal, Bala and Hayatudeen came together in an arrangement to bring out a single candidate to represent them in the forthcoming primary election of the PDP. At the initial stage, they appeared so happy together and appeared poised to reach amicable settlement on their choice. The outcome showed that they did everything wrong and ended with wrong results because as their bodies appeared to be in unity, their minds were mined with dangerous invectives that were scheming to undermine each other. Unfortunately for them, consensus is the agreement of minds, not bodies. Any agreement of bodies without the minds is simply hypocritical and brings out insincere results.
The first mistake was that they called the process the quest for a consensus candidate from the North, knowing full well that all prominent northern aspirants, like Atiku Abubakar, were not in tune with the arrangement. In fact, the initial hidden purpose of the consensus search was to undermine Atiku and wisely take him out of the way to make room for the younger Northern aspirants. The younger Northern aspirants remembered how Atiku outwitted them in Porthacourt in 2019 and took the presidential nomination from them and they were determined to stop him before the primary election. They were aware that the man IBB, whom they intend to subject their destiny to for the choice of a consensus candidate had elicited interest in the younger generation assuming presidential powers. Atiku, cleverly, dodged the process. This was no longer a northern agenda for a consensus candidate, another nomenclature would have been more appropriate. Attempt to rope in the North was a mere deceptive methodology meant to distort the truth.
The second mistake was that they subjected themselves to the whims and caprices of one man. Democracy is a system of government that abhors the institution of one man to decide the democratic outcome of issues, because the potential for bias will always be there. Democracy always stands on the decision of the collective. They subjected their destiny to the choice of President Ibrahim Babangida but refused to accept their fate as decided by him. They forgot also that power grabbers, like themselves, do not have the interest of the country or their section, the North, or any elder at heart, but is concerned only with their own selfish political interests and do not have the commensurate sacrificial mindset to accept any decision that do not favor any of them.
The third mistake was the wrong impression initially given that it was the Northern Elders Forum that was responsible for the decision, before the aspirants started confessing that they outsourced the choice of a consensus candidate to General IBB, who then recruited some individuals to assist him in the choice. The damage to the integrity of the process after the disassociation of some respected members of the NEF was tremendous and may leave a wound that may be difficult to heal in future.
It is revealing that the intention of their search for a consensus candidate among themselves, which was meant to counter the zoning of the PDP presidential ticket to the South-East, rather than expose the weakness of the zoning formula, consolidated it. Saraki and Bala were chosen as the consensus candidates from the North because since 1999 their zones of North-East and North-Central have not produced the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, recognising that it will amount to injustice to pick Tambuwal from the North-West which has produced President twice since 1999 in this fourth republic. Nobody talked about qualifications or the merit of each person’s capabilities, they simply based their decision on giving the different Geo-Political Zones of the North a sense of belonging. They broke into pieces, after their choice, because if they didn’t recognise that equity and justice demand that they consider how appropriate that the North should produce another President immediately after another northerner has spent eight years in office, they will not justifiably consider that it is inappropriate that Tambuwal should be eliminated because he wants to wrongly become a third President from North-West when three other Geo-Political Zones of South-East, North-Central and North-East have not produced any President at all since 1999. It’s time His Excellency, Aminu Tambuwal reconsidered his quest for the presidential ticket of the PDP in 2023, having been rejected by his own elders and pals, not because he is not qualified, but because of the justice of equity, and throw his weight behind an aspirant from the South-East of his choosing.
Also the South of Nigeria should learn from this signpost of the mindset of the northern elders. They rejected Tambuwal because North-West has had their own turn since 1999. In all fairness, the entire elders of the Southern Nigeria have concluded that it’s the turn of the South-East to produce the next President of Nigeria. Leader of Afenifere, Ayo Adebanjo, Leader of Niger Delta, Chief Edwin Clark and even the Leaders of the Middle Belt have all made it public that the next presidential candidate should come from the South-East. It is honestly very surprising that the South-West, after producing President for eight years and Vice-President for eight years should be contemplating to contest in 2023. This is insensitive and smells of the activities of power grabbers. The South-South has also been blessed by God with the position of President and Vice-President for a combination of eight years. The elders of the North should use this opportunity of being rejected by their own aspirants to join the elders of the South for a consensus on a candidate from the South-East. The politicians from all the other Zones should listen to the words of wisdom from their elders and support the South-East to produce the next President of Nigeria in the interest of equity, justice and fairness.
The consensus arrangement by some northern candidates committed the gravest mistake by choosing two contestants instead of one and asked them to consult among themselves to come out with one person. This is really very interesting. Consensus means agreeing on a particular person but this arrangement agreed on two persons. This is no longer consensus because two persons cannot emerge President. The contestants came to the elders to choose only one of them and they chose two, thereby going against their terms of reference and confusing, rather than convincing the aspirants. I was surprised to be hearing that some aspirants got ten votes while some others got lesser votes meaning that there was a kitchen election of some anonymous participants rather than a voluntary agreement of minds by the contestants. This was why the arrangement failed and was replaced with an acrimonious divorce. Moreover, who advised the elders that power grabbers can ever step down for each other sacrificially. They can only be compelled to step down by their own failure even if they pretend they are stepping down. Consensus should be carried out through negotiations, mediation and conciliation not imposition or manipulation. Experts in alternative dispute resolution understand that these methods are the methods formulated to assist the aspirants to reach a consensus among themselves on a candidate rather than receiving instructions from a superior power.
Consensus arrangement should also be initiated before the contestants obtain their forms to contest. Once the aspirants obtain their forms to contest and build their structure, it becomes more difficult to step down for each other. The four contestants acknowledged that the process took a longer time than expected. This gave some of them who had a premonition that they were not going to be chosen to initiate, belatedly, an intention for withdrawal. There was no public knowledge of the withdrawal of any contestant from the process before the announcement of two contestants as winners and this guaranteed the enjoyment of the momentum, even if it was for 24 hours, by Bala and Saraki, the two chosen contestants of the elders. Next time, there might be need to establish a time frame, within which to proclaim the contestants, and this should be before forms are obtained, and at the end of the time frame, the body incharge of the consensus arrangement will stand dissolved if they fail to reach a consensus. Democracy is a system of government that is timed and requires discipline to work according to schedule.
However, we must note that consensus, as presently practised in Nigeria is not democratic. In America, where we borrowed our presidential system of democracy, no aspirant is compelled to step down. The aspirants negotiate among themselves and as they proceed with their staggered elections, they reassess their campaign vis-a-vis their emerging strengths and weaknesses and determine whether to continue or step down for a preferred candidate and throw their weight behind such candidate. When the presidential campaign for the President of America 2020 commenced, there were almost 20 candidates in the Democratic Party. The voluntary stepping down of aspirants energise them to fall behind the winner and work in unity for the success of the party at the general election. Joe Biden won because all his fellow contestants supported his election, after voluntarily stepping down for him. He defeated an incumbent. Parties who compel their members to step down in the facade of consensus risk disunity among their aspirants and consequently risk losing the general election. Buhari won an incumbent Jonathan because he emerged from a free and fair primary election while Jonathan emerged from a rancorous primary election that witnessed the working out of some prominent members of his party. All the parties should peacefully zone their presidential ticket to South-East in the interest of peace, equity and justice, to bring down the tension in the land and ensure a peaceful and seamless 2023.