By Omoniyi Salaudeen
Ongoing discussions about new alliances formation have now become a major issue in the polity.
In this interview, Senator Ayo Arise examined the prospects of the new emerging group and the possible effect of it on the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.
You must have been following discussions about new alliance formation. What is your perspective on the emerging trend?
For now, it is difficult to predict any significant effect of the new emerging alliances on the party in power. You will notice that those who succeeded in such attempts in the past had the support of the National Assembly members to unseat the incumbent President. Right now, we have a very experienced politician who has quite a good number of things to point out as his achievements. I know there are challenges people can latch on to, but the achievements and growth he has recorded have dwarfed the downside of the economy. The most significant is the deregulation of the naira which I believe there is no better alternative to. If you look at the deregulation of the downstream sector of the oil sector also you will notice that it has increased price competitiveness. More people are now willing to build their refineries. As a result, the prices of petroleum products are gradually coming down as market forces dictate. So, you must have a strong base to be able to successfully challenge the incumbent President. For me, it can only help the government to look at those areas they have not probably performed sufficiently and improve on them. From what we have seen at this early stage, I don’t see any group that is strong enough to unseat the ruling party. The ruling party is not sleeping either. As new alliances are being formed, so is the party in power encouraging the opposition to come into the fold. And, of course, no serious politician wants to be left out of the game for a very long time.
There is this allegation of a lack of inclusiveness within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Is this real or imaginary?
It depends on who is involved. It is not everybody that can be a minister or chairman. Among party members there are businessmen. The question is: Are those the President put in power helping him to take care of other party members who have not had much from the government? Whichever way it goes, there is no way everybody can be satisfied. I believe if a party member approaches a minister for a request that is not frivolous, such a person should be obliged. Everybody cannot see the President. If he has to attend to everybody who wants to see him, he will not have time to do any other job. That is why those people who are put in positions of power should help the party and the president by ensuring that members are given a sense of belonging. I don’t know the level of marginalization or otherwise people are complaining about. But if you want to leave the party because of marginalization, I don’t think that will provide a good solution. I believe it is better to voice out and allow those people concerned to address the issues. The truth is that not everybody who has worked for the party can be a minister, board chairman or other appointees of the government. There are other ways people can benefit from the party. I don’t know the grouses of those who want to leave the party, but I believe there are ways things can be corrected than jumping ship.
Do you still believe in the notion of a monolithic North deciding the voting pattern?
The man at the helm of the affairs is a politician. A very smart one for that matter! I don’t think he will give room for such to happen. I heard the governor of Kebbi say that they would support the President in 2027. Kebbi is also among the core North. Don’t forget, we are not talking of one party. For example, if the President can convince the man in Kano to come to his party and he can secure victory for the party, how do we have a monolithic North? It doesn’t exist anymore. If the APC governors perform very well, they will still hold sway in their respective domains. I am sure that is what the President will be looking at. If there is any area he has not done much, he still has two more years to improve on his performance. If you look at places like Benue, Kwara, Kogi, and Nasarawa, APC will still retain its hold. So, there is no way you can have Kaduna mafia as it used to be in the past. It is difficult for anybody to say that the North will vote in a particular way. They can attempt it, but it will be very difficult to achieve it. During the last elections, Atiku Abubakar, a Northerner, pulled his weight. Kwankwaso also pulled his weight. Yet, the majority voted for President Tinubu. I don’t see how that will be significantly different in the coming election.
Do you see the downward trend in the prices of petroleum products and the stability of the naira against the dollar sustainable?
I believe it is sustainable. The government is not only working on the downstream of the petroleum products, they are also trying to provide alternatives. In the past, everybody relied on petrol or diesel-powered vehicles. Now, there is an opportunity for electric vehicles, there is an opportunity for gas-powered vehicles. This shows three different options you can use to power your vehicle. When people have alternative options, prices will continue to go down based on market forces. The policy of selling crude oil is also yielding positive results. Dangote has one of the largest refineries in the world and there is still room for expansion. And as you can see, the price of petrol is now inching gradually towards 50 per cent of what it used to cost. We have also witnessed in the last three or four months the relative stability of the naira which has now made it possible for people to project. This is contrary to the old regime of parallel and official markets which only enriched a few people. Many people are now taking advantage of the stability of the naira to package many products to sell abroad. Even the Customs has agreed that excise duties are beginning to go up because vessels that bring goods into the country are now going back with cargo instead of going back empty. With time, I think misinformation about the economy will begin to go down gradually.
How has the government fared in its poverty alleviation policy?
There are so many programmes the government is doing towards lifting people out of poverty, including giving cash to elderly people. As developed as the American economy is, if you are out of a job, they will pay you salaries for six months. If you make an effort in six months, you will get another job and your economic fortune will turn around.
The latest report shows that 68 million people are captured on the national social register. What is the long-term implication of disbursing money to 68 million vulnerable people as an unearned income on the national economy?
The fact that the government is giving out money to 68 million people means that the beneficiaries have some level of income they can spend. If those people go to the market to buy yam, plantain, Akara, etcetera, the money they spend will have multiplier effects on the economy. So, what defines economic prosperity is not limited to those making megabucks, but also people having more purchasing powers. If those people in the countryside can get the cash transfer, it will give them a means of livelihood and the multiplier effect of it will go round the economy. There is no particular solution that has all the answers. But it is a very good way of addressing the immediate suffering of the downtrodden.
The sudden resurgence of terrorists or bandits attacks has further raised concerns about the security challenge in the country. Is the government doing enough to end the carnage?
I have always been an advocate of state police. There is no way we can have a single federal police that can effectively man the whole country. There are some villages that do not even have police station. Even some local government can’t move quickly to attend to distress calls. From what we have been reading in the newspapers, the issues of kidnapping, banditry and other criminal attacks have declined, though not totally eradicated. And this is because we don’t have sufficient man power to manage the situation in every nook and cranny of the country. We need to quickly implement state police that will allow even local government to take control of security in the local communities. We cannot use single structure police to control every state in the country; otherwise, we will continue to harbour these bandits terrifying our citizens.