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By Chinwendu Obienyi
Nigeria’s economy is projected to expand by 4.4 per cent in 2026, up from an estimated 4.2 per cent in 2025, as government reforms begin to improve macroeconomic stability and support growth in the services sector, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The forecast is contained in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, scheduled for release on Monday at a hybrid press conference hosted by the National Bank of Belgium in Brussels.
According to the Fund, Nigeria’s growth outlook reflects the impact of policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing public finances, improving foreign-exchange market functioning and restoring investor confidence following years of economic strain marked by high inflation, currency volatility and weak oil output.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is expected to strengthen from 4.4 per cent in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, driven by easing inflationary pressures, improved fiscal discipline and structural reforms in several of the region’s largest economies.
The IMF said reform momentum in countries such as Nigeria is helping to underpin the recovery, alongside improved domestic demand and continued expansion in services, including telecommunications, financial services and trade.
At the global level, growth is expected to remain broadly steady despite a slowdown in high-technology sectors that had previously driven much of the post-pandemic expansion. The Fund projects global growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, compared with an estimated 3.3 per cent in 2025.
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The IMF revised its 2026 global growth forecast upward by 0.2 percentage point from its October 2025 projection, citing stronger-than-expected activity in parts of the United States and several emerging markets. The outlook for 2027 was left unchanged.
While high-technology industries are expected to lose some momentum, the Fund said they will continue to partially offset weaker activity in traditional manufacturing and trade-related sectors.
The IMF warned, however, that tariffs, geopolitical tensions and elevated policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on global economic activity in the near term. Although the drag from these factors is expected to diminish gradually over 2026 and 2027, risks to the outlook remain skewed to the downside.
“Resilience so far has been uneven and concentrated in a limited number of sectors,” the Fund said, noting that growth in many economies remains supported by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies that may not be sustainable over the medium term.
The global economy remains vulnerable to sector-specific disruptions as well as long-standing structural challenges, including high public debt, weak productivity growth and climate-related shocks, the IMF added.
Emerging market and developing economies are expected to continue driving global expansion, accounting for the bulk of growth over the forecast horizon as advanced economies experience slower momentum.
The WEO Update will be presented at a press briefing scheduled for 10:30 a.m. Brussels time, which will be streamed live via the IMF’s website and Press Center. Furthermore, the briefing will be led by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s Economic Counselor and Director of the Research Department, alongside Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director of the Research Department, and Deniz Igan, Division Chief in the Research Department.
