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Nigeria and other developing countries risk being left behind as global trade and investment shift rapidly towards technology-driven industries, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned.
Acting UNCTAD Secretary-General Pedro Manuel Moreno raised the concern during an official visit to China recently, where discussions focused on the future of trade, investment and industrial development.
The visit centred on a critical question: where will the industries of the future be built, who will they employ and what development opportunities will they create?
According to UNCTAD, the global investment landscape is undergoing a major transformation, with capital increasingly flowing into artificial intelligence, semiconductors, critical minerals, clean energy and other advanced technologies.
Moreno said that strategic sectors accounted for 44 per cent of global greenfield investment in 2025, compared with just 16 per cent in 2020 while adding that the value of announced projects in these sectors also rose from $109 billion to $576 billion over the period.
“However, developing economies are receiving only a small share of the new investment. Low- and lower-middle-income countries attracted about 10 per cent of investment in strategic sectors between 2020 and 2025, less than half their share in other industries. The concentration of investment has heightened concerns that countries lacking reliable infrastructure, skilled workers, affordable energy, access to finance and strong policy frameworks could miss the next phase of industrial development”, Moreno said.
For Nigeria, the shift presents both an opportunity and a warning. The country has a large consumer market, substantial natural resources and a growing technology ecosystem. It is also seeking to expand digital services, attract foreign investment and develop value chains around critical minerals and energy.
But attracting investment into future industries will require more than access to a large market or a low-cost workforce. Countries must develop the infrastructure, technical skills, domestic suppliers and regulatory systems needed to support sophisticated production.
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Moreno said developing countries could no longer compete primarily on the basis of cost because investment decisions were increasingly influenced by frontier technologies, tariffs and national investment-screening regimes.
He described the shift as “a structural rewiring of the global economy in real time”, warning that its implications extended beyond economics.
“For centuries, great-power competition was spatial, geographic. That pattern is breaking,” he said. “Today, the decisive arena is technological.”
Moreno added that a country’s position in the semiconductor value chain could shape its strategic standing as much as access to oil or control of a shipping route.
The UNCTAD delegation held meetings with senior Chinese officials, including China International Trade Representative Li Chenggang and Vice Minister of Commerce Ling Ji. It also engaged business and academic representatives on investment, innovation, trade and industrial development.
The discussions highlighted the need for developing countries to make deliberate choices about the industries they want to build, the partnerships they pursue and the technologies they seek to access.
UNCTAD said stronger international cooperation would be essential to help developing countries move beyond traditional cost-based competition, build productive capabilities, attract sustainable investment and secure a meaningful role in the industries of tomorrow.
Without urgent investment in skills, power, digital infrastructure and industrial capacity, the global technology race could deepen existing development gaps rather than narrow them in countries like Nigeria.
