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By Chinelo Obogo
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said that air passenger traffic from Africa to most major destinations saw gains in Q1, 2024 with the exception of Nigeria which declined by a negative four percent (-4 per cent).
In its global outlook for 2024 released on Tuesday, the aviation body stated that Nigeria also recorded a small decline from Q1 2023, partially due to the continuous diplomatic and immigration issues between Nigeria and UAE, as well as operational disruptions including a series of lockouts that led to flight delays and cancellations.
For Q1, 2024, Ethiopia had the highest increase in air passenger traffic at 37 per cent, followed by Egypt at 30 per cent and Morocco at 24 per cent. Algeria and Tunisia both increased at 23 per cent, while South Africa saw a growth of 20 per cent and Kenya was at 4 per cent.
Across Africa, passenger traffic rose by 16.8 per cent YoY in Africa in Q1 2024, mirroring the global growth rate of 16.9 per cent. This surge was fueled primarily by a staggering 64.4 per cent rise in traffic between Africa and Asia, a phenomenal leap from the modest 4.1 per cent YoY recorded between 2010 and 2019. The reopening of China and other Asian countries post-Covid lockdowns, coupled with new policies to attract tourists and businesses played a pivotal role in this growth. Additionally, passenger traffic on routes from Africa to the Middle East and Europe saw increases of 11.4 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively, surpassing their average Q1 growth rates during the previous decade.
Air cargo carried by African airlines grew by 16.8 per cent in Q1, outperforming the global average by over 30 points. The Africa-Asia route boosted the region’s performance, at 38 per cent YoY – more than triple the historical average growth rate for this route in Q1. E-commerce is the main contributor to this outstanding performance. Moreover, air cargo volumes between Africa and the Middle East grew by 11 per cent YoY, and between Africa and Europe by 8per cent, both significantly exceeding the historical average growth rates for these routes in Q1.
The passenger load factor of African airlines in Q1 2024 underperformed in comparison to that of airlines in other regions, at 73.1 per cent. On routes between Africa and Asia, the PLF dropped below 70 per cent, lagging the historical average of 73 per cent on the same route area.
The cargo load factor, on the other hand, was nearly double the historical average, reaching 34 per cent in Q1, and indicating a significant traffic shift toward cargo on this route. The Africa-Asia route now has the lowest
PLF but also the highest CLF compared to the other two major international routes from Africa: to the Middle East and to Europe.
African air ticket sales saw a notable YoY increase in Q1 2024, with Egypt, South Africa, and Morocco being the most buoyant markets (Chart 39). Ticket sales were particularly robust during January and February. However, Ramadan began on 10 March this year, approximately 12 days earlier than last year.
The earlier start of Ramadan directly affected March travel statistics this year, reflected in declining ticket sales in late March from key African markets such as Egypt and Morocco.
African airlines have been increasingly buying aircraft since 2022, suggesting confidence in the region’s
aviation future. Thirty aircraft are scheduled for delivery in 2024.
