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Nigeria may be drifting from state capture into a new and potentially more dangerous phase of market capture by powerful private monopolists, experts warned on Sunday during the Toyin Falola Interviews, a high-profile public-intellectual forum streamed live on multiple social-media platforms.
The session, themed “Dangote, Oil and Power in Nigeria,” brought together prominent scholars and policy thinkers including Professors Victor Oguejiofor Okafor, Mobolaji Ebenezer Aluko, Jibrin Ibrahim, Ehiedu Goodluck Iweriebor, governance specialist John Onyeukwu, and labour activist Owei Lakemfa.
It was governance expert Barrister John Onyeukwu who issued the most direct caution, warning that the consolidation of private power in Nigeria’s energy sector could mirror the worst excesses of decades of state capture.
According to him, “Nigeria stands at the threshold of a dangerous transition in which the Nigerian state may be replaced by private monopolists exercising the same extractive control. Our problem has never been the absence of resources; it is the absence of regulatory integrity.”
He added that the spirit of the Dangote refinery—while industrially significant—poses a structural test for the nation. “This new wave of private power is testing whether Nigeria can finally break free from its own resource curse. If regulators fail, we will simply migrate from public capture to private capture.”
Stressing the urgency, Onyeukwu warned: “Unless regulators develop the discipline and institutional vision required to check concentrated private power, the country may simply exchange one dominating elite for another. We must not replace state inefficiency with private hegemony.”
Professor Mobolaji Ebenezer Aluko, former Vice-Chancellor of the Federal University, Otuoke, echoed the concerns but also emphasized the need for balanced oversight.
He argued, “Energy is a strategic national asset. We must be careful not to kill the golden goose before it hatches. Regulators should avoid the temptation of using a heavy hand on a new industry that is still finding its footing.”
Aluko added that reforming Nigeria’s oil sector requires both vigilance and patience. “If the refinery succeeds, Nigeria’s refining capacity will shift dramatically. But excessive regulatory aggression can cripple what we are trying to build.”
Labour-rights leader Owei Lakemfa offered a sharp critique of the refinery’s labour practices, insisting that industrial growth must not come at the expense of workers. “I support national development,” he said, “but we cannot permit a situation where workers are treated as expendable. The Dangote Refinery has violated workers’ rights and constitutional safeguards. The mass sackings amount to collective punishment.”
He added emphatically: “Let Dangote face his business and let workers face theirs. We cannot allow workers to be enslaved in the name of national progress.”
From a political-economy standpoint, Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Democracy and Development, offered a nuanced perspective.
He confessed, “I have transitioned from being a Dangote hater to a Dangote fan because the refinery is good for our industry and must not be sabotaged.”
However, he added swiftly, “My support does not mean workers’ rights should be trampled. Industrial success and human dignity must go hand in hand.”
Providing the historical arc, Professor Ehiedu Goodluck Iweriebor situated Dangote’s industrial shift within a wider continental framework. He noted, “Dangote’s move from large-scale trading into heavy industrialisation is a major event in African economic history. It aligns with the pan-Africanist quest for self-sufficiency.”
Iweriebor further stressed the significance of the refinery’s timing: “Nigeria has been in a fuel quagmire since 1974. This intervention is helping to lift the country out of a dependency cycle that lasted half a century.”
Moderating the conversation, Professor Victor Oguejiofor Okafor explained that the documentary prompting the discussion was deliberately provocative to encourage robust debate.
According to him, “The purpose of the documentary is to unsettle assumptions. This panel provides ample room for interpretations across ideological lines.”
He also posed a critical regulatory question:“Why is the refinery acquiring crude through third parties? Why can it not purchase directly from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company? These gaps must be interrogated.”
