Nigeria already a failed state, middle class has disappeared –Duke

• Blames poverty, unemployment for kidnapping, banditry

• Warns country can’t survive another four years of economic decline

By Beifoh Osewele

Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) presidential candidate and former Cross River State governor, Donald Duke, has declared that Nigeria is already exhibiting the characteristics of a failed state, warning that worsening poverty, unemployment, insecurity and the virtual disappearance of the middle class have pushed the country towards a dangerous economic and social crisis.

Duke, who linked the growing incidence of kidnapping, banditry and other violent crimes to the failure of the economy to provide jobs and opportunities for Nigerians, said the country’s security challenges could not be sustainably resolved without addressing the economic conditions driving them.

Speaking in an interview yesterday, the former governor warned that Nigeria could not afford another four years of economic deterioration, arguing that successive governments had failed to expand the economy sufficiently to accommodate the country’s rapidly growing population.

“If we don’t address these issues squarely and fundamentally, we’re already a failed state. There’s no question about it.

“Look at what is happening — banditry, terrorism, kidnapping and all sorts of conflicts. These are symptoms of a state that is unable, not only to properly articulate its challenges, but to deal with them.”

Duke maintained that the continued existence of government institutions did not necessarily mean that a country was effectively fulfilling its obligations to citizens, particularly where insecurity prevented people from living and working without fear.

“What is the definition of a failed state? Fundamentally, it is a state that fails to meet the aspirations of its people.

“You may still have a government and institutions, but if the state cannot protect the people and provide the environment in which they can live productive lives, then it is failing them.”

He argued that victims of kidnapping and other violent crimes would find little comfort in academic arguments about whether Nigeria qualified as a failed state when their personal experiences demonstrated the inability of government to guarantee their safety.

“Talk to someone who has been kidnapped. That person does not need you to explain the definition of a failed state. His experience has already told him what failure of the state means,” Duke stated.

The PRP candidate identified the erosion of Nigeria’s middle class as another indication of the country’s economic difficulties, lamenting that many citizens previously considered financially comfortable were now living precariously and could be pushed into poverty by a single emergency.

“You have, perhaps, one per cent who are genuinely wealthy and then a huge number of people struggling around or below the poverty line.

“The so-called middle class does not really exist anymore. Many of those we call middle class are only surviving from day to day. Let there be one serious emergency and they crumble.”

He said the widening gap between the wealthy and the poor reflected an economy that was failing to generate sufficient opportunities for its expanding population.

According to him, businesses were contracting, new enterprises were not emerging at the required pace, while educational institutions continued to produce graduates for a labour market unable to absorb them.

“Businesses are contracting. New ones are not springing up the way they should. At the same time, we are turning out graduates every year and adding more people to the working population, but there is no work for them to do.”

Duke warned that tackling insecurity principally through military and law enforcement operations, without addressing poverty and unemployment, would amount to treating the symptoms of a deeper national problem.

“When it comes to banditry and kidnapping, poverty and unemployment are at the bottom of much of it.

“We keep reacting to these crises instead of asking what is producing them. We are too reactive in our governance. Governance is not just about today; it is about laying the foundation for tomorrow.”

The former governor also questioned whether Nigeria’s economic growth had kept pace with population expansion, drawing attention to the country’s crude oil production levels over the past four decades.

“In 1980, Nigeria was producing about 2.5 million barrels of oil a day.

Forty-six years later, we are producing around 1.7 million barrels, while our population has tripled.

“So you have to ask: has the economy expanded enough to carry the population? Clearly, it has not.”

He argued that Nigeria’s large population should ordinarily provide a foundation for economic expansion, increased productivity and a stronger domestic market, but warned that the potential could not be realised without sustained investment in education, employment and enterprise development.

“Our numbers ought to be an asset. But a large population is an asset only when you can educate the people, employ them and make them productive.”

Duke expressed concern that the deteriorating economic environment was encouraging Nigerians with the means to relocate abroad, while those unable to leave faced increasing pressure from unemployment, declining purchasing power and insecurity.

Explaining his decision to contest the 2027 presidential election, the former governor said he could no longer remain on the sidelines while the country’s challenges deepened.

“You get to a point in your life where you say, ‘Either I walk away or I do something.’ There is no guarantee that you will win. But I don’t want to look back and say that all these things happened and I did nothing.”

He described his presidential ambition as a response to what he called the urgency of Nigeria’s circumstances, warning that continued deterioration could make the country’s problems even more difficult to resolve.

“I talk about the urgency of now because I don’t think we can go on like this for another four years.”

Duke said his campaign would concentrate on policies and solutions rather than personal attacks on political opponents, insisting that Nigerians should use the election to demand concrete answers on economic growth, insecurity, poverty and unemployment.

“What I want to do is focus on those who aspire to lead this nation on addressing the issues that affect us and how we can resolve them. I talk about the options. I talk about the real issues. I don’t want to talk about personalities,” he said.

The former governor traced his commitment to public service to his decision to return to Nigeria after studying and working in the United States, saying he had long believed in the country’s potential.

“I had the opportunity in my twenties to remain in America. I went to school there and worked there for a while.

“But I voluntarily decided that was not where I wanted to be. I believe the Almighty put me in Nigeria for a reason. I believe in this country’s possibilities, and this is where I believe I should contribute.”

He recalled that the same conviction informed his decision to contest the Cross River State governorship election in 1999, maintaining that his experience in public office had reinforced his belief that Nigeria could achieve far more with effective leadership and sound economic management.

“I wanted to prove then that we were better than what we were putting forward. From experience, I know Nigeria can be a very successful nation,” Duke said.