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On July 24, 2026, the United States (US) government imposed a new 12.5 per cent tariff on imports from Nigeria, over the country’s alleged failure to effectively implement or enforce restrictions on imports produced with forced labour. However, Washington imposed a lesser tariff of 10 per cent on India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico and the United Kingdom (UK). The new tariff comes under a restructured Section 301 framework of the US Trade Act. The new measure will affect mostly non-oil imports from Nigeria, especially agricultural products and some manufactured goods.
Fortunately, the nation’s oil and gas products, which account for over 80 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to the US, are exempted from the tariff. On the other hand, the profits of non-oil exporters, agro-businesses and small manufacturers may be drastically reduced by the new tariff regime. The new import tariff is coming 15 months after the President Donald Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs in April 2025 on all export goods to the US and a baseline 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
Tariffs are taxes on goods and services bought from other countries. They are a percentage of a product’s value. Just as last year’s sweeping tariffs on Nigeria’s exports affected over 50 other countries, the latest one affects imports from about 60 economies. Over five African countries are among them. Washington says that Trump also intends to use the new import tariff to boost the US economy and encourage US consumers to patronise more American-made goods, increase the amount of tax raised that will lead to huge levels of investors in America. However, economic experts predict that this could adversely affect the economies of the countries affected by the new import tariff as well as reduce the world’s GDP by 7 per cent, according to estimates by the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s trade with the United States totaled N31.1 trillion between 2015 and 2024. Similarly, total imports within the period stood at N16.4 trillion, or 8.7 per cent, meaning that Nigeria is at the receiving end of Trump’s new tariff. This, to some extent, will put Nigerian economy on a tailspin. It may disrupt trade relations and potentially weaken the competitiveness of Nigerian products in the US market. Worrisome, too, is the fact that the tariff will raise prices of goods and further weaken the value of the naira. It will also worsen the biting economic hardship in the country, slow down manufacturing activities as well as hinder international trade.
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We recall that all of the products affected by the new tariff regime were previously exempted under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a US trade programme that allows eligible sub-Saharan African countries to export certain agricultural products to America, duty-free. The overall aim of AGOA is to promote economic growth and development in Africa.
We believe that, with good policy implementation, the federal government can contain the US government’s new tariff by coming up with measures to protect the nation’s oil and gas sector. We say this because oil and gas make up the vast majority of Nigeria’s export to the US. Additionally, the overall macroeconomic impact will be relatively contained by ensuring that the oil and gas sector and allied sectors are insulated from further geopolitical spats. We must heed the advice of the Director-General of WTO, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, on adding value to critical minerals before exporting them. The advice should also be extended to our non-oil exports, especially agricultural products such as cocoa, cassava, yam, cashew nuts and others.
Also, the federal government can overcome the US tariff on imports by expanding the markets for Nigeria’s non-oil exports. This can be done by leveraging on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement to sell these products. We can target other markets in Europe and Asia as well to reduce the over-reliance on the US market. Besides, the government should begin to enforce bans on imports linked to forced labour. Exporters of agricultural products such as cocoa must adopt stringent supply-chain transparency and global labour compliance standards to eliminate US regulatory pushback.
All things considered, the new tariff should serve as a wake-up call on the government to boost local value addition and enhance competitiveness by providing tax and logistical support to Nigeria’s Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to lower domestic production costs. This will help them to maintain price competitiveness. In all of this, we advise the government to engage more in bilateral diplomacy by utilising the United States Trade Representative (USTR) consultation process to renegotiate trade terms.
