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By Beifoh Osewele
The condolences are touching and the tributes glowing. Flags fly at half-mast, mourning and wailing spread through barracks and military formations, and another investigation is ordered. Nigeria has travelled this road before, far too often. Yet the losses continue.
After the October 5 crash of the Nigerian Air Force’s ATR-42, NAF 931, at Igbokoda, Ondo State, President Bola Tinubu ordered a probe. Will this one be different? At least 63 deaths in eight fatal incidents over a decade underpin observers’ demands for answers on safety, funding, rescue readiness and earlier investigations.
The NAF 931 surveillance aircraft was travelling from Benin City to Lagos on a routine flight when it fell from the sky into a swamp. Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo initially reported 25 passengers and seven crew members: 32 people. The Presidency parroted those figures. NAF subsequently listed 20 passengers and five crew members, with no survivors.
How did 32 become 25—or was 25 initially reported as 32? Who verified the departure manifest and boarding records? Officials did not immediately explain the discrepancy. Families and the public deserve an explanation.
Updating preliminary information is legitimate but leaving conflicting official accounts unexplained creates uncertainty. If authorities struggle to reconcile who boarded an aircraft, how will they earn confidence in establishing why it crashed? The probe’s credibility begins with accurate information and transparent handling of evidence.
“We heard something like a thunder strike,” eyewitness Akinbulejo Pius told the Associated Press. “We found some body parts, some clothes and shoes.” Parts of the aircraft were sinking in water as rescuers tried to reach the wreckage.
Flying Officer I.M. Adeshina had just earned his commission. Commissioned into NAF on September 26 after emerging as the best graduating cadet of Branch Commission Course 3, he died nine days later in the crash. The rank he had just earned became a painful reminder of promise cut short: from commissioning to eternity in nine days.
For Flight Lieutenant Damilola Adekunle, the loss ended a marriage 16 days old. Her husband, co-pilot Squadron Leader Ahamefule Aham Man-Ugwueje, married her in Abuja on September 19. Adekunle’s father, Wing Commander E.O. Adekunle, died in the September 2006 military aircraft crash in Benue. Twenty years later, another military aviation tragedy has taken her husband.
Weeping has hoisted its flag at full mast at military headquarters in Abuja, with flags at half-mast and black armbands at the Lagos Air Force base.
“Behind every uniform is a family. A spouse, a child, a parent, a brother or sister who expected their loved one home,” Tinubu said.
Vice President Kashim Shettima said: “Somewhere today, there is an empty chair.”
“We cannot ask the bereaved to be strong today. Grief does not obey instructions,” he added, promising support beyond the mourning period.
But the question is what brought NAF 931 down? Investigators must establish the sequence from take-off to impact through recorder evidence, maintenance records, weather information, crew actions and communications. What was its airworthiness status, and who authorised the flight?
The aircraft formed part of a $73 million contract covering two ATR-42s, training and logistics. Reports place its return from prolonged maintenance in Germany in late 2024. What work was done, what defects were recorded and what checks followed its return? Its maintenance history alone establishes no cause.
The wider question concerns lessons from earlier tragedies. Instructor pilot Group Captain Adanu Ochai died in Kaduna in August 2017. Squadron Leader Bello Mohammed Baba-Ari died after two aircraft collided during Independence Day rehearsals in Abuja in September 2018. Five helicopter crew members died near Damasak, Borno, in January 2019.
Seven personnel died in the February 2021 King Air crash near Abuja airport. That May, another King Air crash killed Chief of Army Staff Lieutenant General Ibrahim Attahiru and 10 others. Two pilots disappeared with an Alpha Jet in March 2021; two trainer pilots died in Kaduna in April 2022.
Shiroro’s August 2023 helicopter loss needs qualification. Defence Headquarters said an earlier ambush killed 25 soldiers. The evacuation helicopter carried 14 bodies, seven wounded soldiers and four aircrew. The combined toll of 36 indicates 11 additional crash deaths. Bodies already aboard must not be counted again; claims of a shoot-down were not established investigation findings.
These eight fatal incidents, including Igbokoda, fall within the October 2016 to October 2026 review period. The toll excludes the missing Alpha Jet pilots. Non-fatal losses, including the December 2025 Kainji Alpha Jet emergency, also destroyed assets.
What became of earlier investigations? The joint NAF/Accident Investigation Bureau inquiry into Attahiru’s crash submitted an interim report in September 2021 containing 27 initial findings and eight immediate safety recommendations. Further recorder analysis and examination of procedures were expected in the final report.
That announcement disclosed investigative work. But where are accessible final findings, implementation records and evidence that identified risks were corrected? Which recommendations were adopted, who supervised compliance and what remains outstanding?
Continued crashes alone do not establish a common cause.
Search and rescue poses another test. More than 24 hours after Igbokoda’s crash, much of the wreckage remained submerged. Police Commissioner Felix Ohagwu said recovery was slow because equipment had yet to arrive.
“Most of the heavy technical support needed are being awaited,” he said.
Premium Times reported canoes and machetes being used to clear access. At 2 p.m. on Tuesday, an amphibious excavator remained ashore, unable to enter the waterway.
Environment Commissioner Tob Loko said: “I saw the divers trying to see where the plane is but they were finding it extremely difficult.”
How quickly was the emergency recognised, who coordinated agencies and when did suitable equipment arrive? Were rescue arrangements prepared for creeks and mangroves? No evidence establishes that delays caused the deaths, but equipment shortages and response timelines require scrutiny.
Funding must also be traced. The African Democratic Congress demanded an audit, citing alleged releases of ₦4.5 billion against ₦34.71 billion budgeted for NAF aircraft maintenance, compared with ₦20.27 billion released against ₦20.74 billion for the Presidential Air Fleet.
“Patriotism does not replace spare parts, and condolence messages do not take the place of accountability,” the party said. These remain attributed claims, not proof of the crash’s cause.
What was appropriated, released and spent on the aircraft? Were spares and overhauls funded promptly? What did contracts deliver? The loss is colossal: lives, military assets and operational capability, compounded by emotional trauma for families.
SIPRI records military expenditure of ₦444.1 billion in 2016 and ₦3.196 trillion in 2025. These totals do not establish funding for individual fleets.
Christian Association of Nigeria president Daniel Okoh demanded a transparent probe and implementation of recommendations. “Their families also bear the weight of those sacrifices,” he said.
Aviation analyst Olumide Ohunayo urged broader cooperation: “There’s a need to rework, to rejig, and also to reassess both operational manuals and procedures and processes.”
“The NSIB stands ready to assist the Nigerian Air Force, at its request, with whatever technical support may be required,” the Nigerian Safety Investigation Bureau said.
Will civilian expertise be engaged, and will findings and corrective actions be disclosed?
Who will explain findings to grieving relatives? A timetable, named implementing authorities and independent scrutiny would show whether this inquiry produces change.
For observers demanding accountability, Tinubu’s probe must deliver public answers, clear responsibility and lasting, measurable safety changes beyond yet another official sound bite. Otherwise, to borrow Shakespeare’s words, it risks becoming “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
Osewele is deputy editor (News), Daily Sun
