International relations, by the dictionary, is the way in which two or more nations interact with and regard each other, especially in the context of political, economic, or cultural relationships. When the administration of Tinubu came into power, there were three major decisions he made within few weeks of inauguration. They include one purely domestic decision, two is a mixed foreign and domestic decision and the third is a complete international relations decision. The first was on fuel subsidy and the decision he made was to single handedly declare that “fuel subsidy is gone” on the same day of inauguration. He also declared that the dual foreign exchange rates were gone and they were replaced with single foreign exchange rate. The third is that the military junta who overthrew the civilian government in Niger Republic, our topmost northern neighbour, must step down within 7 days and restore the overthrown civilian government, or be removed by force.
The first decision was purely illegal because there was already a law that fixed the exit from fuel subsidy to be for the end of June, 2023, not May 29, 2023. The second one cannot be decreed into existence because the exchange rate is determined by the forces of demand and supply. The third international decision he made was not within his power to determine because it’s the power of the Senate to approve the deployment of Nigerian armed forces outside the country. It is unfortunate that as at the time the President made those critical decisions, he didn’t have a cabinet, so he is personally responsible for all the decisions he took. He didn’t constitute a cabinet till about 60 days after he made them when things have become almost irretrievably bad. It’s no surprise that all the decisions ended in unmitigated disaster.
For the avoidance of doubt, today there’s fuel subsidy because with the dollar rate going for N1,450.00 to a dollar, there’s no way the price of fuel per litre can remain the same when the dollar was N450.00 and when it is N1,450.00. The single exchange rate is also not working because the official exchange rate is still different from the main street exchange rate market (We must henceforth desist from using black to denote bad and evil things. In this column, we will not use black to denote evil). The international decision to threaten Niger Republic with force and the issuing of a 7-day ultimatum for the junta to step down and restore the former deposed President of Niger Republic is the most disastrous of all the decisions. This is simply a display of incompetence and inexperience on the international level.
I am a masters degree holder in International Law and Diplomacy and has been researching about international relations and laws for about 20 years that I acquired the degree. The first principle in politics is “say less and do more”, especially in international relations. This government broke this first rule by saying more and doing nothing. I didn’t say doing less, I said doing nothing. You do not begin to boast in a democracy about the powers you don’t have, because that power can be denied you. Immediately the President made the boast of 7-day ultimatum and failed, the Junta in Niger Republic even refused to grant his delegates seeking for dialogue with him audience in Niamey. In fact the delegation was not even allowed to land in Niamey. The Senate in Nigeria, refused to even consider the option of force against Niger Republic, thereby making the regime appear like a gester. The regime, in order to save face closed the borders with Niger Republic cutting off political, economic, and cultural relationships, that has existed between Niger Republic and Nigeria for centuries. Niger Republic was suspended from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The Junta called the bluff of Nigeria, ECOWAS and its Chairman, Tinubu, and expelled ECOWAS from his country. For any action by Nigeria, Niger Republic has replied with something harsher. Nigeria has been saying more and doing nothing, while Niger Republic has been saying less and doing more. So, even Niger Republic’s military junta is more experienced than the Nigerian President in International relations.
Let us state that the primary, chief, and centre piece of international policy of any government is its strategic interest. Every other thing, including religion, is secondary. The question is, what is Nigeria’s strategic interest in handling the Niger Republic military takeover the way it did? For the avoidance of doubt, let us examine the concept of strategic interest in respect to the international relations between United States of America and Saudi Arabia. The USA is the most powerful nation on earth with the largest economy, and predominantly christian in their religion. The USA is the champion of the fight for the promotion and protection of the fundamental human rights of citizens of any country worldwide. They have been known to clampdown on any country with poor human rights records with different sanctions as they impose on Iran. Saudi Arabia is a predominantly Muslim country which houses the two holiest places in Islam with terrible human rights records. The citizens detest everything American as they see America as the Great Satan who corrupts and pollutes the world. American support for Israel doesn’t help matters because Saudi Arabia was then in the forefront for the liberation of the Palestinian people. Indeed, majority of the terrorists that brought down the world trade twin towers in New York were from Saudi Arabia. Even their leader Osama Bin Laden was from Saudi Arabia.
With all these dissimilarity between these two countries, they discovered that it’s in their strategic national interest to maintain their friendly relationship. America refused to impose sanctions against Saudi Arabia because of their terrible human rights records. Even when a journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, who was also an American resident, was gruesomely murdered in the Saudi Arabian embassy in Turkey, America still refused to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia. The reason was because America had a military contract with Saudi Arabia worth $500b in addition to oil and gas deposit which America needs for its economy. On the other hand Saudi Arabia, which will not even tolerate a Christian moving about freely in certain areas of Mecca, rushed to America (The Great Satan) for safety when Sadaam Hussein of Iraq threatened to conquer and take over Saudi Arabia, having already overthrown the kingdom of Kuwait and their king. America had to land in Saudi Arabia to protect the Kingdom in operation desert shield, and even built a church there. When they settled in, they launched operation desert storm and defeated Sadaam Hussein. They eventually toppled Sadaam Hussein and executed him. When it comes to international relations, a nation’s strategic interest must be paramount even if it means embracing “The Great Satan”. Alcoholic bar has just been established even in Saudi Arabia to lubricate the interest of those diplomats and service men.
Unfortunately, the present government in Nigeria doesn’t understand this theory. Nigeria is culturally, economically and socially related with Niger Republic. The relationship is so symbiotic that Nigeria supplies Niger Republic with electricity in order to preserve river niger from being dammed by Niger. There’s free flow of trade between these two countries with Nigeria sea ports providing avenues for Niger Republic to carry on its international trade. Niger assists Nigeria in security by providing a shield that cuts off Nigeria from the terrorists of the sahel region which descended from Libya after the fall of Muammar Ghadaffi. This government had no reason to declare the use of force to effect a change of government within 7 days if it had considered all these factors especially as the military coup was welcomed by the Nigerien citizens. It has no justification to close the borders between Niger and Nigeria thereby destroying the economy of the 7 northern border states of Nigeria including Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe, and Borno. These states intermarry with their kinsmen across borders. The former President Buhari, who acknowledged that he has cousins on the other side of Niger, even boasted that he will run to Niger after his tenure to ensure he rests well. Most of all the military junta poses no threat whatsoever to the security of Nigeria. Meanwhile, the President they overthrew had changed the Constitution to grant himself power to govern for life and had manipulated election to remain in power in addition to his poor economic record and unwillingness to liberate Niger Republic from the clutches of France which takes all natural resources of Niger Republic and gives them pittance in return. Nigeriens were tired of their government and yearned for change. The coming of the military junta was seen as a saving grace to them and they did not hide their feelings to the whole world.
The correct international relations approach to the Nigerien issue was to recognise that there is a difference between the people and the government of Niger Republic. This regime would have placed sanctions only on the junta and his ruling cabal to fulfil the ECOWAS and African Union (AU) Treaty which has outlawed military coups but would have refrained from closing our borders and placing sanctions on the citizens of Niger. Having done that, it will open a channel of dialogue with the Junta on how it will gradually move towards restoring democracy back to Niger Republic. This was the strategy President Buhari deployed when military officers overthrew the Guinean dictator and threw him out of power.
It’s obvious that this government acts before it thinks. International relations is a complicated and complex web that requires methodical and wise approach to extricate. It is not something that can be achieved on impulse. It takes a lot of the application of tact and skill to deal with. This government can still make amends by using every channel to continue dialoguing to see whether ECOWAS can be salvaged in the face of the reactionary exit of the three sahel countries of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger Republic, which are all under military dictatorship. The best time to open the borders is now to end the sufferings of citizens from both sides and resume security cooperation between the two countries, even if it means using a third neutral country as a go between between the two countries.