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From John Adams, Minna
As Niger State approaches the 2027 governorship election, the political cloud appeared very thick and the conversation towards who occupy the government house in 2027 is increasingly moving toward the personalities, experience and incumbent power of the contestants.
But politics has a strange memory, and those who sometimes believe that they are masters of the political games and its arithmetic often discovered that the people have a different equation.
As the race to 2027 gathers momentum, alliances are formed, strategies are calculated, powerful interests are assembled and political outcomes are sometimes announced long before voters have spoken, but when the cloud is cleared and the dust settles down, history has a way of reminding everyone that political power ultimately belongs to the people.
However the main contenders for the number seat in the state, are the incumbent governor Umaru Mohammed Bago of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), a season banker and three term member of the house of representative, Dr. Mohammed “MK” Kpautagi, a retired senior civil servant who rose to the position of Director of Urban Development in the Federal Ministry of Works and Housing. His professional background is centred on public administration, urban development and planning.
He emerged as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) governorship candidate for Niger State after polling 67,924 votes in the ADC primary across the state’s 25 local government areas, Alhaji Muhammad Mamman Nami, former Chairman, Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) who moved from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Nami had previously sought the APC ticket to represent Niger South Senatorial District (Zone A) but was among the aspirants who rejected the outcome of the party’s primary process.
It was gathered that Nami and four other Niger South aspirants challenged the process, alleging irregularities and reserving the right to pursue other political options.
The political atmosphere in the state since the emergence of Nami as PDP governorship candidate appears to have changed the equation, and has entered a new phase ahead of the 2027 governorship election. The last in the line of the real contender is Alhaji Yahaya Mohammad Guregi who may eventually flies the ticket if the National Democratic Congress (NDC) after the internal wrangling within the party is finally resolved.
The internal dispute centred on the choice of candidate to fly the NDC flag in next year’s election between Alhaji Yahaya Mohammad Guregi and Alhaji Idris Usman Makanta. While the party’s leadership in the state have maintained sealed lips over the choice of candidate, Yahaya Guregi has been the lone candidate till after the party primaries, when supporters of Makanta who did not participate in the primaries started laying claim to the slot because, according to them, “Google recognized Makanta as Niger State NDC governorship candidate in Niger state.”
But in a dramatic turn of event, Makanta resigned from the governorship race under NDC. In a letter dated 12th of September, 2027, he wrote “I write to formally convey my decision to resign my membership of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and, consequently, to withdraw from the contest for the Governorship of Niger State under the platform of the Party.
“This decision has not been taken lightly. I joined the NDC in good faith, with the sincere conviction that the Party represented a credible platform through which the people of Niger State could be offered a genuine alternative to the prevailing political order. I was equally prepared to contribute my experience, resources and political capital towards building a united and formidable opposition capable of providing the people with purposeful, accountable and compassionate governance. However, recent developments within the Party have compelled me to reconsider my continued membership”, he added.
He however did not say where will be next political destination, it was gathered that he may be considering picking the ticket of Action Democracy Party (ADP) as it’s governorship candidate in the state.
The big question on the lips of political watchers in the state has been whether the ruling All Progressive Congress APC can utilize it incumbent power to remain in government in 2027.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) is currently in disarray as it is confronted with growing internal division among some of its heavy weight and major political stakeholders, raising concerns that can consume the party.
The undoubtedly is yet to have cohesion and required preparedness ahead of the 2027 general elections, especially after the party primaries.
The division in the ruling party started immediately after the 2023 primary elections that left behind unhealed wounds on few people following the failure of the party leadership led by Governor Mohammed Umar Bago to embark on a genuine reconciliation with the current Minister of Information and National Orientation, Alhaji Mohammed Idris Malagi and his group.
But in a recent desperate move to salvage the situation, the governor was said to have reached to the malagi group with a view inherit the political structure.
However, the recent perceived political differences between the governor and the senator representing Niger east senatorial district, senator Mohammed Sani Musa (313) in one hand and former Governor Abubakar Sani Bello, the senator representing Niger north in the other hand has not only underscores the subject of political dichotomy in the state but it is capable of affecting the party at the poll.
Even though the APC undoubtedly remains the dominant political party in the state, it apparently lacked the synergy among some of its leading figures that has raised concerns about the party’s ability to sustain a united front ahead of the 2027 general elections in the state.
Be that it may, the situation is reportedly a cumulative one not limited to the party’s major stakeholders. As there are further indication of a cat and dog relationship between the state executive and some members of the Niger State House of Assembly, in addition to the conduct of some local government chairmen allegedly instigated by some individuals which has generated further controversy within the party.
Another major challenge facing the APC in the state is in the area of leadership, and the current state working committee led by its chairman, Alhaji Musa Bobi lacks lack everything expected of a ruling party. Critical stakeholders of the party believed that the leadership lack coordination, wisdom, ability, honor, integrity, and confidence to genuinely reconcile aggrieved members of the party especially the prominent individuals involved in the internal crisis rocking the party in the state.
It could be recalled that Just recently, the party chairman who is assumed not to have control of the party, in an interview made some negative utterances against the Imams and Islamic clerics in the state, tagging them as beggars not minding the number of followers they command and the political implications.
In addition to this, he was said to have descended on the Senator representing Niger North and former governor of the state, Senator Abubakar Sani Bello with some unprintable utterances. This further decline his public acceptance and trust within the two groups which may have negative implications on the APC led administration in the state. There is no doubt that the state party chairman has lost the confidence and trust of majority of the critical stakeholders of the APC in the state.
Aside this, reports have it that the situation has also been compounded by claims that some political appointees and aides perceived to be loyalists of Senator Sani Musa and Senator Sani Bello have been relieved of their appointments, fueling the anticipated political disagreement and realignment within the APC in the state.
It is a public knowledge that senator Sani Musa played a pivotal role in the emergence of governor in 2023.
A pioneer publicity secretary of the party and former commissioner for Information Culture and Tourism, Hon. Jonathan Vatsa described the current party leadership is the one that lack what it takes to deliver the party in 2027.
“As a member of the state working committee, I knew what we went through, the sacrifices we made to make the party emerged victorious in 2015. One of the greatest challenges confronting the party is leadership and that is why there has not been any genuine efforts towards reconciling aggrieved members after the controversial primary/consensus arrangements.”
Vatsa believed that the ruling party has not learnt any lesson from the fall of PDP, stressing that “all the indices of what led to the fall of PDP in 2015 are common sight in our party today. The level of impunity in very high, there is no internal democracy and the level of corruption, injustice keep growing and Nigerians are getting disenchanted every. These are what led to the fall of PDP after 16 years in power. Each time people like us try to speak the truth, we are tagged as opposition within, but the truth is that things are not working and people are refusing to speak out because of food they will eat.”
A disunited home they say is vulnerable to all kinds of attacks, and eventual defeats. Hence the need for a quick and holistic reconciliation from the depths of the hearts of the figures. Consequently, the controversial conduct of the APC primary elections ahead of the 2027 general elections was another greatest undoing of the party with many of the aspirants forced to step down to give way to consensus arrangements, a process heavily criticized by stakeholders.
Before the party primaries, the governor had promised during an expanded stakeholders meeting that the party was embarking on consensus arrangements, but assured that where the consensus arrangement fails, there will be direct primary inline with the party guidelines.
However, this promise was immediately thrown into dust bin as the party failed to adhere strictly to the party provision leading to the current court cases, causing another groups of aggrieved within the Party members.
More importantly, the reported exchange of accusations and harsh rhetoric among some APC stakeholders has heightened concerns about the unity of the party ahead of 2027 in which political analysts warned that prolonged divisions could create opportunities for the opposition to gaining ground for anticipated victory if nothing is done urgently.
However, the emergence of former Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Mohammed Nami, as the Niger state Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate has also impacted on the political calculations ahead of the 2027 election in the state.
Some political watchers believe that if the PDP and other opposition parties succeeded in building a broad and united political coalition, the APC could face a more competitive contest than it might have anticipated.
A legal practitioner Isah Mohammed told our correspondent that the 2027 governorship contest in the state will be a child Play, stressing that the ruling needs to do a lot work to convince Nigerians in view of the hardship in the country.
“I can assured you that it won’t be an easy contest. Whoever tells you that the ruling party will have an easy ride should have a rethink because Nigerians are not happy, the hardship is real,” he said.
Although the incumbency advantage and structural strength remain crucial assets going into 2027, but the lack of internal cohesion is a dangerous set back that will consume the ruling APC in Niger state.
Moreso, the alleged plan by 15 members of the house of assembly that lost their second term ticket to defect to the opposition PDP to join Mohammed Nami will pose a serious threat to the chances of the APC.
In addition to this, Muslim- Muslim 2027 Governorship ticket by ruling party has also contributed to another division in the party as a group of Coalition of Concern Christian Stakeholders have rejected the arrangement. They are advocating for a fair and equal representation, and therefore demanding for a Christian as deputy governor. Although, they maintained that their grievances can be settle if other crucial positions like the Secretary to the state government and the Chief of Staff can be allocated to body.
Another identified threat, is the Niger Rescue Movement Political Family who were former APC members also resolved to formally align with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) ahead of the 2027 general elections in Niger State. While the ADC governorship candidate Doctor Mohammed Kpautagi Mohammed should not be under estimated by the APC having come from the same zone with the incumbent governor.
The dangerous and greatest threat is that APC may be fighting itself internally while the opposition is busy restructuring itself, most importantly with the emergence of Mohammed Nami as the PDP’s governorship candidate, makes the contest to become considerably tougher.
The APC leadership, therefore, must be able to manage their differences among its major stakeholders, rebuild trust, confidence, and prevent disagreements from degenerating into permanent factionalization. There is the urgent need for reconciliation, dialogue and respect for party structures as this will be critical if the APC goes in to the 2027 elections as a disunited political force.
