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From Femi Folaranmi, Yenogoa; Isaac Job, Uyo; Tony John, Port Harcourt; and Aniekan Aniekan, Calabar
From the bustling oil cities to remote coastal communities, political gladiators are locked in a fierce scramble for votes that is reshaping politics across the South-South geopolitical region as electioneering commences ahead of the 2027 elections.
The outcome of the August 15 governorship election in Osun State, which offered the electorate the chance to vote and ensure their votes counted, has given a glimpse of what awaits political parties that rely on old methods of rigging election results to win.
Though the major political parties in the South-South zone, namely, the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), are keeping their campaign strategies close to their chests, preliminary investigations reveal that APC and PDP are broadly aligned across the states of the South-South in delivering President Bola Tinubu the presidential election, while all four major parties are set to fight hard for National Assembly and State House of Assembly seats.
Cross River: APC consolidates as rivals battle internal strife
In Cross River State, the APC appears to hold most of the aces, owing to internal divisions rocking rival parties. Having resolved its own internal crises, the party appears the most prepared for the coming elections, with no major leadership dispute threatening its chances. Governor Bassey Otu, well respected at the national level of the party, is leaving no stone unturned to secure his own re-election and that of the President.
Part of the strategy involves massive grassroots mobilisation, with the recent unveiling of a 30-man group christened Cross River Arise for Prince Otu and Peter Odey. The committee, drawing membership from all 18 local government areas, is expected to mobilise support for the APC at the grassroots.
Director-general of the support group and Commissioner for Local Government Affairs, Chief Felix Idem, said the initiative was designed to deepen the APC’s grassroots presence and drive fresh membership recruitment across polling units, wards and workplaces. He said members were to prioritise door-to-door mobilisation over flexing political positions, insisting that titles alone do not guarantee victory at polling unit level.
“You are powerful in your polling unit. If you are powerful, win your polling unit. Win all, not some,” he said.
Cross River APC chairman, Chris Etta thanked President Tinubu for intervening in the state’s long-running oil well dispute and financial difficulties, saying the President’s support is unprecedented among past administrations. He said the level of attention Tinubu has given Cross River makes it inevitable that residents will reciprocate with massive votes. “He is the only President, from Obasanjo to Jonathan to Buhari, who has given us a listening ear on our oil wells and bankruptcy issue,” he said. Etta declared that the APC is not afraid of the opposition, insisting the party’s record of achievement will carry it through.
Governor Otu has also rallied notable elders under the Cross River State Elders Advisory Council, which includes figures such as Dr. Fidelis Ugbo, Professor Eyo Etim Nyong, former Kwara State military administrator Colonel P.A.M. Ogar (retired), and Eyo Nsa Whiley, alongside representatives from the state’s three senatorial districts. The council has endorsed President Tinubu and Governor Otu for second terms, declaring that political leadership of the state must remain the prerogative of Cross Riverians and rejecting any external imposition or interference. The endorsement came at the Council’s inaugural meeting at Channel View Hotel, Calabar.
The PDP, meanwhile, is battling a factional crisis casting doubts on its readiness, torn between a faction backed by former minister Saminu Turaki, with Tim Ekawu as caretaker chairman and Paul Udayi as governorship candidate, and a faction loyal to FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, with Venatius Ikem as chairman and Arthur Jarvis Archibong as candidate. The Turaki faction insists it is the authentic leadership, citing a recent Appeal Court judgment.
A similar split runs through the ADC, divided between a faction loyal to former governor Liyel Imoke and one led by Chief John Ogar, a crisis party watchers say is weighing down its chances alongside troubles at national level.
The NDC, positioning itself as a third force, insists it has no internal disputes and is building structures from ward level upward. State chairman Goddie Akpama said the party is growing steadily and is more prepared today than at inception.
“We are building from the wards and polling units across the three senatorial districts,” he said, describing the strategy as deliberately grassroots. He added that the Osun result offers lessons, chiefly that parties must take election day organisation and voter confidence seriously, since the INEC Result Viewing Portal makes it increasingly difficult for manipulation to go unnoticed.
Akwa Ibom: Twenty-two parties jostle for space under APC’s shadow
In Akwa Ibom, no fewer than 22 political parties are readying themselves to contest power with the APC in the 2027 general elections. They include the APC, NDC, Labour Party, Accord Party, African Action Congress (AAC), PDP, ADC, All Progressives Grand Alliance and Young Peoples Party, among others.
To set the tone for electioneering, the Resident Electoral Commissioner, Professor Anugbum Onuoha, cautioned parties during a stakeholders’ engagement to operate within the Electoral Act and INEC guidelines so the commission can deliver a free, fair and credible poll in 2027.
Addressing chairmen and secretaries of the 22 parties at his maiden meeting in Uyo, Onuoha said parties remain the primary vehicle for democratic participation, with roles spanning monitoring, mobilising citizens, fielding candidates and educating members. He said INEC in Akwa Ibom is committed to transparency under the Electoral Act 2026, insisting the commission has no preferred candidate and that every vote must count. He urged parties to avoid misinformation, shun violence and ensure their agents are properly screened and accredited, and called for calm ahead of 2027.
The chairman of the Inter Party Advisory Committee in the state, Blessing Udoh, assured INEC of the parties’ cooperation in ensuring a peaceful contest. To prepare for campaigns, the AAC has inaugurated chapter offices across the state’s 31 local government areas. State chairman Hon Utip Etiebet, speaking at the inauguration of the Ukanafun council chapter, called on residents to join his party and unseat the incumbent federal lawmaker for the constituency, Hon Unyime Idem. He argued that politics should be about the fair distribution of wealth rather than its concentration, accusing APC local government chairmen of receiving over N600 million in monthly allocations with little to show for it beyond road grading, while residents endure poverty. He said the AAC has mobilised its members and is ready to spring surprises in 2027.
The ADC’s governorship candidate, Senator John James Udoedehe, a former APC national secretary, told Daily Sun by telephone that he is ready to contest against all odds and that campaigns would be flagged off on his return to the state.
Rivers: The rainbow coalition faces rising ADC challenge
As campaigns begin to stir in Rivers State, leaders of the APC, PDP, ADC and NDC are all projecting public confidence. A formidable alliance of the PDP, APC, Labour Party and other opposition figures has coalesced into the Rainbow Coalition, led by FCT Minister Nyesom Wike. Although each party retains its own supporters, many residents view APC and PDP members as effectively one bloc.
Chairmen of all 23 local government areas, 20 from APC and three from PDP, are strong members of the coalition, and candidates for national and state assembly seats from both parties emerged from what was widely described as a consensus arrangement during the last primaries.
The fastest growing rival to the coalition is the ADC. Its Rivers State leader and the party’s Vice Presidential candidate, Chibuike Amaechi, has declared that President Tinubu is not invincible and can be defeated if the masses are properly mobilised. The state chapter has played down the coalition’s dominance, arguing that democracy thrives on competition and that every party has a constitutional right to seek a mandate.
State chairman, Dr. Chukwudi Dimkpa, said the ADC remains focused on building a strong grassroots structure and presenting credible candidates rather than fighting any particular rival.
“Nigerians are increasingly interested in competence, credibility and capacity,” he said, adding that power ultimately belongs to the people rather than parties. He said the ADC would invest in voter education, election monitoring and agent training at ward, local government and state level, and that an informed and vigilant electorate is the strongest defence against undue influence. He added that the credibility of the 2027 polls matters not just for parties but for the stability of Nigeria’s democracy.
The NDC and several smaller parties outside the coalition remain largely invisible in Rivers State for now. Overall, structure still matters in Rivers, but with the IReV portal limiting manipulation, the 2027 race looks set to be won by whichever party combines credible candidates, real issues and a ground game capable of turning out and protecting votes.
Bayelsa: APC’s easy presidential ride, tougher fight down the ballot
In Bayelsa, a combination of factors is offering a smooth ride for APC presidential candidate Bola Tinubu, while National Assembly and State Assembly hopefuls face a much tougher battle for votes. An uneasy quiet coalition exists between APC and PDP purely for the presidential contest, while the two parties remain locked in a longer battle over other seats.
On paper the APC looks most prepared, helped by Governor Douye Diri’s leading role in the campaign and by Bayelsa’s off cycle election calendar, which has freed him to focus on mobilisation. Diri has pointed to party unity as the key factor that will deliver votes, declaring it would be easier for a camel to pass through a needle than for the opposition to dethrone the APC in Bayelsa. He has also appealed for issue based campaigns and respect for opponents, describing President Tinubu as a democrat who persuades rather than fights.
Speaking at the flag off of the PBAT Door to Door Movement’s South South chapter, Diri urged supporters not to treat those who disagree with them as enemies, calling politics a game of numbers that requires patient, door to door persuasion. APC state chairman Hon Warman Ogoriba said the party would campaign strictly on the record of the Diri and Tinubu administrations, citing improved civil servant salary payment, new road access to previously isolated communities such as Oporoma and Ekeremor, and the prospect of a deep seaport at Agge.
The APC’s ground campaign is being reinforced by the PBAT Door to Door Movement, founded by former militant leader Government Ekpemupolo, known as Tompolo, and by the Presidential Amnesty Programme under Dr Dennis Otuaro. The movement, working through zonal and state coordinators, is especially effective across Ijaw territories in Bayelsa, Delta, Rivers, Edo and Akwa Ibom, drawing on thousands of former agitators and Amnesty Programme beneficiaries.
Otuaro has urged the Ijaw Youth Council to back Tinubu’s re election, pointing to scholarship placements abroad as evidence of the programme’s value.
The NDC, whose national leader Senator Henry Seriake Dickson hails from Bayelsa, is quietly building support across Bayelsa West by engaging community leaders, women and youth groups. Dickson has voiced solidarity with grassroots efforts to unseat the APC, warning that those who rig results or deploy security forces against citizens will be disappointed again, and pledging that every vote will count.
The PDP is also active, with state chairman Chief Alabh George Turnah and national leader Great Joshua Maclver insisting that grassroots Bayelsans, not boastful rhetoric, will decide the outcome. At a recent defection event in Elebele, Ogbia local government, Maclver declared that the APC cannot avoid a serious contest in the National Assembly and House of Assembly races, even if it dominates the presidential vote.
Edo: APC’s council sweep fuels confidence, but cracks persist
In Edo State, the APC is stepping into the 2027 cycle riding on a wave of confidence built on its clean sweep of the state’s local government election, in which the party won all 18 chairmanship seats and all 192 councillorship positions. State chairman Jarret Tenebe has pointed to that outcome as proof the party can deliver 2.5 million votes for President Tinubu in 2027, crediting hard work, effective grassroots mobilisation and Governor Monday Okpebholo’s leadership. He recalled that the APC kept contesting local polls even while in opposition under former governor Godwin Obaseki, despite what he described as an uneven political environment.
Former deputy governor Pius Odubu described the council election as a dress rehearsal for 2027, while a serving lawmaker in the Ovia South West area, Idahosa, pointed to newly completed community infrastructure as evidence of the administration’s grassroots commitment, and used a campaign rally to receive a group of PDP defectors into the APC.
Governor Okpebholo has been equally bullish, telling supporters during an earlier senatorial by election campaign that 2027 is already secure and predicting the APC would eventually absorb all meaningful opposition in the state. The APC has also swept its House of Representatives primaries across all nine federal constituencies, a process the party’s primary election committee chairman, Muhammed Ajana, described as transparent and free of manipulation.
Yet, the picture is not without cracks. In Okpebholo’s own Edo Central senatorial district, the ADC has recorded a wave of defections from the APC, PDP and Labour Party, with state chairman Tony Alile and stalwart Kenneth Imansuagbon receiving new members who cited insecurity and economic hardship as reasons for abandoning the established parties.
Analysts note that PDP retains meaningful grassroots support in the district despite the APC’s control of formal party structures, a legacy of the 2024 governorship contest in which PDP candidate Asue Ighodalo won three of the five local government areas there.
Within the APC itself, there is unease over the imposition of candidates for senatorial and House of Representatives candidates in Edo State, with party sources warning that voters in the three districts had rejected imposed candidates in 2011, 2015 and 2019 and could do so again. The PDP, once dominant in Edo, is described by observers as grappling with deep internal divisions as it tries to rebuild ahead of 2027.
Delta: Oborevwori’s defection reshapes once PDP stronghold
Delta State offers perhaps the most dramatic illustration of the region’s shifting alignments. Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, who won the 2023 governorship election on the PDP platform with 360,234 votes against APC’s Ovie Omo-Agege, subsequently defected to the APC alongside his predecessor Ifeanyi Okowa and the state’s entire cabinet, a move widely read as part of a coordinated federal strategy to consolidate APC control across the oil producing states of the Niger Delta.
The defection has since been formalised at the ballot box. Oborevwori emerged unopposed as the APC’s 2027 governorship candidate after 345,375 party members across all 270 wards affirmed his candidacy in a direct primary, which he praised as transparent and free of the violence that has previously marred party contests in the state. Delta Central APC stakeholders have since formally endorsed the Tinubu and Oborevwori ticket alongside Senator Ede Dafinone at a meeting in Effurun, with the chairman of the state’s Association of Local Governments of Nigeria pledging sustained grassroots mobilisation and reconciliation of aggrieved members ahead of 2027.
The opposition, however, is regrouping rather than retreating. Omo-Agege, having lost the governorship race and subsequently left the APC, has now launched a senatorial campaign in Delta Central under a new banner, urging voters across Uvwie local government to remove both Senator Dafinone and Governor Oborevwori from office through grassroots mobilisation. The state APC has hit back, accusing him of waging a campaign of calumny against the governor.
The clearest opposition threat is emerging around the NDC, which has gained momentum from the backing of Peter Obi alongside Omo-Agege and former Delta State House of Assembly speaker Victor Ochei, who retains considerable influence among grassroots stakeholders in Delta North. Omo-Agege’s own strong showing in the 2023 governorship race means he still commands a formidable structure in Delta Central.
The ADC is placing its hopes in veteran politician Great Ovedje Ogboru, a familiar name from past Delta governorship contests, while the PDP, the party Oborevwori and Okowa abandoned, is described as weakened by internal divisions and multiple factional candidates as it searches for a credible standard bearer. Despite this opposition realignment, incumbency and the machinery inherited with Oborevwori’s defection continue to make the APC the favourite heading into 2027.
