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By Adewale Sanyaolu
Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market has witnessed several storms as major stakeholders lock horns in supremacy contests.
Behind the frequent fuel price changes and market uncertainty lies a fierce battle of wits between the Dangote Refinery, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) and petroleum marketers, each taking strategic steps to protect interests in an increasingly volatile downstream market.
This has led to relentless price swings, fragmenting pricing structures and forcing operators to deploy survival strategies.
As of December 12, 2025, the Dangote Refinery had adjusted petrol prices for a record 20th time this year, a trend marketers say is pushing many businesses to the brink.
Industry players describe the frequent downward reviews as a death knell, noting that each price cut translates into billions of naira in losses. Following the most recent gantry price reduction from N828 per litre to N699, marketers estimate losses of about N40 billion, an amount they warn is still rising.
National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Mr. Chukwudi Ukadike, lamented the growing financial strain in a telephone interview with Daily Sun.
He said while the latest price cut carries both positives and negatives for Nigerians preparing for the yuletide, the impact on marketers has been devastating.
Ukadike expressed concern that marketers who purchased petrol at prices between N768 and N850 per litre before the latest reduction would be forced to absorb heavy losses. According to him, many operators who loaded products just last week at those rates, depending on their source, are now facing a serious crisis and “biting their wounds.”
He added that the downstream sector has always been prone to volatility and price shocks, but said the situation has intensified since the entry of the Dangote Refinery, whose pricing decisions now significantly shape market dynamics.
Even as the market struggles to adjust to the rapid price changes, the Dangote Refinery further unsettled operators by announcing the suspension of petrol sales in naira. The move has sparked fresh anxiety among marketers, deepening concerns over fuel pricing stability and renewed foreign exchange pressures in the sector.
The downstream sector was further unsettled among operators in the petroleum downstream value chain over the decision of the Dangote Refinery to commence direct sale of petroleum products to large users, petrol dealers, telecom firms, among others, with free delivery effective August 15.
The marketers expressed concern that Dangote’s new business model could spell doom for the downstream sector through massive job and investment losses.
To support the free delivery and ensure its smooth take-off, Dangote Refinery said it has invested in the procurement of 4,000 brand-new Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)-powered tankers.
National PRO of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Mr. Joseph Obele, had said the decision by Dangote Refinery, raised concerns about its forward integration adoption, warning that it could lead to a monopoly in disguise and pose a significant job loss threat to Nigeria.
With a production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, PETROAN argued that Dangote Refinery should be competing with global refineries and not operating as a distributor in the downstream sector.
“This massive refinery, one of the largest in sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to satisfy domestic fuel demand and export surplus products. PETROAN has previously raised alarms about Dangote’s intentions to dominate the downstream sector, citing concerns that the company may leverage its market power to fix prices, limit competition, and exploit consumers, much like it has done in other sectors.”
PETROAN further warned that Dangote’s tactics may include a pricing penetration strategy, where they plan to reduce prices to capture market share, with the ultimate goal of forcing other filling station operators to quit the market.
This, it said, could lead to a massive shutdown of filling stations across Nigeria, resulting in widespread job losses.
The association further lamented that the introduction of 4,000 brand-new Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)-powered tankers by Dangote Refinery poses a significant threat to the livelihoods of thousands of truck drivers and owners.
“While CNG trucks may offer a lower cost of transporting petroleum products,” the association posited, “this shift could lead to widespread job losses in the industry.”
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The launch of the 4,000 CNG trucks further widened the crack in the downstream sector as the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers(NUPENG) announced a nationwide strike starting Monday, September 8, 2025, in protest against alleged “modern slavery” practices at Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest petroleum refinery.
In a joint statement issued on September 7, 2025, by NUPENG President Williams Akporeha and General Secretary Afolabi Olufemi, the union accused the Dangote Group of barring drivers of its 4,000 CNG-powered trucks from joining any union, a move the union strongly opposes.
NUPENG specifically condemned the creation of the Direct Trucking Company Drivers Association (DTCDA), calling it a management-backed outfit aimed at weakening union influence.
The union insisted that DTCDA is not a legitimate union but rather a vehicle formed to restrict drivers’ rights to free association.
NUPENG labeled the development as an attempt to impose exploitative labor conditions, warning that “any worker who cannot exercise the right of association is no better than a slave.”
But the firm fired back in a statement by the spokesman of the Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina, stating that the allegations that it was undermining union activities and threatening workers’ welfare through its new deployment of CNG-powered trucks were not true.
The Dangote refinery reiterated its full support for constitutionally protected labour rights, stating that employees are free to affiliate with any recognised trade union.
But the crisis in the sector got to the height last week, when the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Mr. Farouk Ahmed, resigned following allegations and economic sabotage by the President of Dangote Industries Limited, Alhaji Aliko Dangote.
Tinubu had last Wednesday summoned Ahmed to the Presidential Villa in Abuja over allegations of economic sabotage and corruption.
Prior to the allegation by Dangote, Ahmed had earlier accused the refinery of producing substandard petrol with high content sulphur lever, a claim that didn’t go down well with Dangote. He challenged the NMDPRA to carry out an independent test on the petrol produced by the refinery and those imported to truly ascertain the veracity of the allegation by the regulator.
President of Dangote Industries Limited, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, had during a media briefing on Sunday called for an investigation and prosecution of Ahmed, accusing him of economic sabotage, which he said was undermining domestic refining in Nigeria.
Dangote accused the leadership of the NMDPRA of colluding with international traders and oil importers to frustrate local refining through the continued issuance of import licences for petroleum products.
Dangote alleged that Ahmed was living beyond his legitimate means, claiming that four of his children attend secondary schools in Switzerland at costs running into several million dollars.
He said such expenditure raised serious questions about potential conflicts of interest and the integrity of regulatory oversight in the downstream petroleum sector.
“I am not calling for his removal, but for a proper investigation. He should be required to account for his actions and demonstrate that he has not compromised his position to the detriment of Nigerians. What is happening amounts to economic sabotage,” Dangote said.
He further alleged that Farouk paid as much as five million dollars in tuition fees for his children’s secondary education in Switzerland, questioning how many Nigerians could afford such costs.
“The Code of Conduct Bureau, or any other body deemed appropriate by the government, can investigate the matter. If he denies it, I will not only publish the tuition he paid at those secondary schools, but I will also take legal steps to compel the schools to disclose the payments made by Farouk. I sent my own children to secondary schools here in Nigeria. How many Nigerians can afford to pay five million dollars for secondary school tuition, not university education? In his home state of Sokoto, many parents are struggling to pay as little as N10,000 in school fees,” Dangote said.
True to his threat, Dangote on Monday published the details of Ahmed’s children’s name, schools in Switzerland, and tuition fee payment structure in some national dailies.
He described the downstream petroleum sector as being under severe strain, alleging the presence of entrenched interests that profit from fuel imports at the expense of national development.
“There are powerful interests in the oil sector. It is troubling that African countries continue to import refined products despite long-standing calls for value addition and domestic refining. The volume of imports being allowed into the country is unethical and does a disservice to Nigeria,” he added.
Dangote stressed the need for a clear separation between regulatory oversight and commercial interests, warning that allowing traders to influence regulation would undermine the integrity of the sector.
