By Chukwudi Nweje

Nigeria’s worsening security situation dominated three different international reports recently and raised questions on how much longer the Federal Government will wait before it reins in the Boko Haram terrorist group, bandits, kidnappers, unknown gunmen and other criminal elements in the country.

In separate reports, the International Committee on Nigeria (ICON), in collaboration with the International Organization for Peace Building and Social Justice (PSJ), the Nigeria Security Tracker (NST) and the International Christian Concern, Washington, United states based human rights organisation painted a gory picture of insecurity in Nigeria, suggesting that the security situation has gone from bad to worst.

In a report titled ‘Nigeria’s Silent Slaughter: Genocide in Nigeria and the Implications for the International Community’, ICON said that “genocide is taking place in Nigeria” under various guile, warning that “an implosion in Nigeria would destabilise the surrounding countries and send millions of refugees into Europe and beyond.” The report said that Boko Haram has killed over 50,000 Nigerians in the last 10 years.

In its report, the NST, a project of the Council on Foreign Relations Africa programme, said that as many as 4,453 Nigerians either suffered violence or were killed due to kidnappings at the hands of Boko Haram, bandits, kidnappers, unknown gunmen, state and non-state actors or communal clashes in the months of May and June 2021.

NST report is compiled by John Campbell, a Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, DC. The report is collated from Nigerian and international press and documents violent incidents related to political, economic, and social grievances directed at the state or other affiliated groups or conversely, the state employing violence to respond to those incidents.

On its part, the International Christian Concern reported that an estimated 939 students were kidnapped from educational institutions across Nigeria between December 2020 and May 2021.

These reports paint a gloomy picture of insecurity in Nigeria and they raise questions on how much longer the Federal Government will wait before it makes good its promise to curb the menace.

Worsening insecurity

In 2014, when then-candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Muhammadu Buhari was campaigning to become President of Nigeria, his campaign was anchored on three pillars to fight insecurity, tackle corruption and grow the economy. In fact, the APC’s campaign programme talked about enthroning “a Nigeria in which neither yourselves, nor your parents, families or friends will have to fear for your safety, or for theirs.”

But analysts are surprised that six years on, the promise has not been fulfilled. Rather, the situation has worsened as insecurity which was then, largely localised in the North East has spread to virtually every part of the country. Many Nigerians feel that the Buhari administration has not only failed to fulfil its promise to end insecurity but that the Federal Government has not lived up to its responsibility under Section 14 (2) (b) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, which says that “the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government.”

The recent statement by an Islamic cleric, Sheik Abubakar Gumi that there are about 100,000 armed bandits in the North West alone and that kidnapping of school children will continue until there is genuine negotiation shows that the government is far from curbing insecurity in the country.

Gumi, who was speaking on an ARISE TV interview also alleged that soldiers and security agents were working with bandits to carry out criminal activities. The Chief of Defence Staff(CDS), General Lucky Irabor has since debunked the allegation, but many Nigerians are worried why insecurity in Nigeria has not been curbed six years after.

Much talk, no action

Unfortunately, despite the precarious situation in the country, the government has continued to threaten that it has the capacity to deal with the situation.

In April this year, after an attack by bandits in Zamfara State which led to the death of about 80 persons and the destruction of properties, Buhari warned the perpetrators not to push their luck too far and not to think that the Federal Government lacks the capacity to crush them.

He said through his Senior Special Adviser on Media, Garba Shehu, “The violence against poor villagers who are struggling with poverty and other severe economic challenges is not going to be tolerated by this administration. Let’s not give these criminals any opportunity to succeed by taking the war to their own camps and stop them in their tracks before they even have the time to respond under our massive firepower.”

Earlier in March, the National Security Adviser (NSA), Maj Gen Babagana Monguno boasted that the government has both the manpower and resources to contain the insecurity and ruled out any further negotiation with bandits.

He said, “The President’s view and directive is that we will not engage mercenaries when we have our own people to deal with these problems. We have the personnel and resources, and the President has given a new lease of life to the Armed Forces. While the government is not averse to talking with these entities, it also has the capacity to fully apply its weight. You can’t negotiate with people who are unreliable and who will continue to hurt society. We will apply the full weight of the government to deal with these criminals.”

However, many Nigerians and analysts have expressed the view that the Federal Government has not matched its words with action. In fact, concerned Nigerians attribute the rise in insecurity to what they called ‘the kid gloves’ with which the government treat issues relating to herdsmen.

For instance, Bulama Bukarti, an analyst at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change said that “Political pressure is mounting on President Buhari as his government claims it is doing its best and succeeding but the reality does not show it.”

Maj Gen Henry Ayoola (Rtd), former Commander (Special Task Force), Operation Safe Haven in Jos, Plateau State, currently the National Coordinator Initiative for Peoples Rebirth (IPR) and National Chairman, Restructure Actualisation Movement (RAM),

said the failure of the government to match words with action has emboldened the criminal elements.

He said, “Insecurity has spread from the North East to the entire country. Today, you have sporadic incidents all over the country with varying gravity and that is why it appears we can’t even keep a tab on all of them. What is happening is that when there is an incident in one part of the country before the security agencies can react to it, another incident will occur in another part of the country. The speed and concurrence at which they occur are frightening that it appears that insecurity has been let loose on Nigeria.”

Okechukwu Nwanguma, Executive Director of The Rule of Law and Accountability Advocacy Centre (RULAAC), said the Federal Government has failed in its responsibility to protect the citizenry.

He said, “It is no longer gainsaying that insecurity continues to grow and get worse every day under President Buhari’s government. Boko Haram terrorists, herdsmen, bandits and sundry criminal elements have seized the entire Nigerian space with the government completely incompetent and incapable of reining in the criminals. Citizens have no protection from the government. All we hear are empty assurances by the government that they are doing something; the citizens are not seeing any results.”

Nigeria at war

For many analysts, the insecurity in Nigeria presently has degenerated into a war-like situation that requires the government to act and treat the situation in like manner.

Prof Anthony Kila, Director at Centre for International Advanced and Professional Studies (CIAPS) said the Federal Government must view the activities of the criminals as an act of war if it hopes to defeat them.

He said, “Today, the country is at war, there is a war going on in different parts of the country. In the South East, the state is being contended by rebellion; there are attacks on police stations, prisons and barracks. In many parts of the South West and the North, particularly the North East, the state is being contended by bandits and terrorists; it shows that we have a problem with the credibility of the state itself there; calls for secession and dissolution, that is not a good thing.”

Time for action

Maj Gen Ayoola charged the Federal Government to match its threats with action adding that as long as the government continues to talk without acting, insecurity will persist.

He said, “It is strange that there is no visible matching response from the government and it explains why the perpetrators are having a field day; it even emboldens them and they have become more creative in the ways they launch their attacks because there is no deterrence; it is only when evildoers know that they will meet stiff resistance that they will be deterred.”

Chief Goddy Uwazuruike, a former President of Aka Ikenga also believes that insecurity remains largely the same or worse because the government has not shown action.

He said, “I believe that the frequency of the threats has made them perfunctory. No serious bandit, no Boko Haram and ISWAP fighter will take this government serious. The credibility of the person issuing the threat is key to what happens next. Remember that one of the three pillars of the Buhari presidency is security. The way out is to apply universal fairness or equality among the soldiers and upgrade the intelligence capabilities of the military. It is suicidal to send soldiers with low morale to the battlefield. Equipment and financial support and entitlement must be adhered to by the government. A soldier must not be owed his wages.”