I regret supporting subsidy removal

…Says FG’s 3% expenditure on capital projects ‘gross irresponsibility’

By Chinelo Obogo

A finance analyst, Kalu Aja, has issued an apology for supporting President Bola Tinubu’s fuel subsidy removal in 2023, accusing the administration of “gross fiscal irresponsibility” and squandering what he said should have been a opportunity for Nigeria’s development.

In a posted on his verified X handle on Wednesday, Aja said that his support for the policy was based on the assumption that resources would be invested in rebuilding infrastructure and educating millions of out-of-school children.

According to Aja’s analysis, Nigeria generated N10.92 trillion in revenues during the first half of 2025, supplemented by N6.1 trillion in borrowing, bringing total available funds to approximately N16 trillion. Despite this, the federal government allocated only N393 billion to capital projects across the country, representing less than 3% of available funds.

The financial expert noted that 2024 showed a similar pattern where the government earned N20 trillion in cash revenue and borrowed another N12 trillion, totaling N32 trillion, yet allocated only N6 trillion to capital expenditure. Aja said the current spending patterns contrasts with those of the late President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration which in 2021 raised N4.6 trillion in cash and borrowed N4.5 trillion, totaling N9.1 trillion. Of this amount, approximately N3.08 trillion, which is about 34% was released for capital expenditure.

Aja said: “I have to apologise for supporting the removal of the PMS subsidy by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The policy is right; removal of the PMS subsidy is a revenue event. My assumption and hope were that removing the PMS subsidy would free up fiscal resources to rebuild Nigeria’s infrastructure and educate the millions of children roaming the streets.

“Last year, you got N16 trillion in revenue and spent only N400b on CAPEX, yet Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Delta, and even Edo have oil billions. Again, what’s the point of the “largest party in Africa”? Where is the master strategy? Where is the subsidy money today? States have plowed it into salaries; the federal government has used it to service debt. Nigeria has wasted another opportunity again. How does the President hope to pay for his grandiose projects across Nigeria? Debt? Nigeria is currently paying 74% of her revenues to service debt in the first half of 2025.

“Nigeria has no buffers. The CBN is swimming in high-interest FPI. The NNPC has already tapped out. Consumers are not consuming. Some of you on social media still think this is a game of alphabets and tribes, that you can tweet and abuse your way out of it. If Brent crude drops to $50, boys and girls, this dance is over. Keep standing on that spending mandate; the breakfast will go round.”