ν States likely to witness more surprises on Saturday
ν Factors that will determine fate of parties
By Our Reporters
The Presidential and National Assembly elections held in penultimate Saturday threw up several electoral upsets in different parts of the country. In Lagos, Abuja, and other parts of the country where the performance of the Labour Party (LP) was high, a number of notable candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and others lost their election or re-election bids.
In the same manner, the All Progressives Congress (APC) buoyed up by the strong electoral value of its standard bearer and President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, scored high marks by grabbing some senatorial and House of Representatives seats.
With just one week left to the governorship and state assembly elections, Sunday Sun reports on the red flags that may determine the outcome of elections at the sub-national level.
LAGOS
Just like in the penultimate Saturday’s Presidential and National Assembly elections, the coming governorship and state assembly polls in Lagos State will be the most competitive election in recent times.
Hitherto, the gubernatorial contest had always been a straight fight between the ruling APC and the main opposition PDP.
But this time around, the political space has been expanded to include the Labour Party as one of the front liners. It, therefore, promises to be an interesting slugfest largely among the incumbent governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, who is the candidate of the APC and the standard bearers of the PDP and LP – Abdul-Azeez Adeniran and Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour respectively.
To be sure, 16 political parties have indicated interest to partake in the state governorship election, while 394 candidates will be jostling for 40 state constituencies, according to the INEC.
As usual, the political atmosphere is already becoming increasingly charged ahead of the polls. Presumably, three basic fundamental factors will determine where the pendulum swings. One is the Obi factor. In the penultimate Saturday’s presidential poll, the Obi-Datti Movement was the major driving force behind the large turnout of voters witnessed during the poll.
But for next Saturday election, Obi is not on the ballot. And given the contestation that has continued to trail the outcome of the presidential election, there is the likelihood that many of the enthusiastic followers of Obi, who were dissatisfied with the result may not be willing to come out to vote, which invariably may lead to voter apathy. In the event that there is voter apathy, the incumbent governor will be the ultimate beneficiary of this election.
In the last election, religion and ethnicity played a major role in determining the pattern of voting and the actual winners of the elections. The same sentiment is likely to repeat itself again on Saturday. The only dilemma for the religious bigots who were preaching religion in their places of worship against the Muslim/Muslim ticket of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is that both the candidate of the APC and that of the Labour Party are Christians. So, they will have to make a choice between the deep blue sea and the devil depending on the individual’s perception of the candidates.
Lagos as a cosmopolitan state has a fair representation of all ethnic groups in the state across all walks of life. The aggregate of people’s sentiments about who is fit for the job will determine the ultimate winner of the election. And this is where the performance of the incumbent governor will be interrogated. If the performance of the governor is perceived to be satisfactory for the benefit of the greatest number of people by the majority, his re-election will have an easy sail. If otherwise, his second-term ambition kisses the dust.
Above all, the power of incumbency cannot be wished away. Generally, owing to the fact that people tend to patronise the party in power for money and positions, a sitting governor is in better stead to mobilize more voters than those outside the government circle. This election cannot be an exception.
OGUN
Come March 11, one week from today, three parties will lock horns in contest for the Ogun State governorship seat.
While the APC is fielding incumbent Governor Dapo Abiodun, the PDP and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) will have Oladipupo Adebutu and Biyi Otegbeye, as their candidates respectively.
The ruling party in the state won the three senatorial and nine House of Representatives seats during the February 25 polls.
Before the election, members of the opposition had believed that APC could be beaten giving the impact of the severe scarcity of currency notes caused by the naira redesign policy, which unleashed untoward hardship on the people.
To them, the policy, which was greeted with protests in the state, coupled with the scarcity of fuel, were enough to put the ruling party in a bad light before Nigerians.
The campaigns of the opposition had focused on how the APC had failed the country, as they wooed the electorate with promises to turn things around, if they were given the mandate.
And with the immediate past governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, publicly throwing his weight behind Otegbeye of the ADC, many people believe that political clout of Amosun would catapult Otegbeye and the ADC.
But with the result of the presidential election favouring the APC, chances of the incumbent governor getting re-elected are now brighter.
Out of the three senatorial districts in the state, Ogun Central is the stronghold of Seantor Amosun. None of the ADC candidates won a national assembly seat.
For the PDP, expectations of springing surprises at the polls, especially in Ogun East where Oladipupo Adebutu is stronger, hit the rocks as he failed to at least deliver his Ikenne Local Government Area to his party.
Though no two elections are the same, it will be a Herculean task to unseat the ruling party on Saturday. The key reasons are that the incumbent governor has the former governor of the state and Senator-elect for Ogun East, Gbenga Daniel and the Senator-elect for Ogun West, Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, to secure mass votes in the two senatorial districts. Ado-Odo/Otal Local Government Area, which has a population density and high number of voters, is under the grip of Senator Adeola of the APC. Apart from that, the current Ogun State Deputy governor, Noimot-Salako Oyedele also hails from the local government area.
Pundits in the state say that the battleground for the March 11 poll will be the Ogun Central Senatorial District, where Seantor Amosun has large followership. Though he is still in the APC, he had declared to campaign and work for the ADC.
Amosun, who hinged his support for Otegbeye on the failure of his successor to continue with his administration’s master plan, vowed that he would work assiduously to ensure victory for the ADC and its governorship candidate.
The incumbent governor, however, has been showcasing his administration’s infrastructural and economic development of the state at his campaigns, asking the electorate to re-elect him.
With APC at the national level, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo’s factor and the incumbency factor, the governorship may swing in favour of the APC in Ogun.
OSUN
Osun State will not hold governorship election in this year. However, election to the House of Assembly will be shaped by two factors owing to the results of the National Assembly elections, where the PDP won the three senatorial and nine federal constituency seats, which showed its wide acceptance in the state.
Working from this premise, there is strong likelihood that the party will consolidate on its success, to concretely show that the people of the state voted for the party in the July 2022 governorship and last week’s general elections.
Again, the acceptability of the various candidates in their constituencies will determine the outcome for the contestants in the election. This factor has gained weight because people are now voting for candidates based on popularity and acceptance by the people of his/her community.
The victory of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu may boost the morale of the APC coupled with the judgment of the election tribunal that sacked Governor Ademola Adeleke.
ENUGU
Enugu State for the first time since 1998 might witness a departure from the usual dominance of the governorship polls by the ruling PDP.
Since the beginning of the present democratic dispensation, the PDP has been ruling the state and equally occupied all the legislative seats from federal to local government.
But the Labour Party’s Obidient wave that swept across the country, especially the Southeast and in particular Enugu State, seems will be a major factor in Saturday’s governorship election in the state. There also seems to be a general view that the state needs a change of party having been in one all the years without exceptional performance.
In terms of the personalities in the race, the four major parties, All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), All Progressives Congress (APC), Labour Party (LP) and PDP presented electable candidates, hence making the race a tough one. Hence the exceptional individual quality of the candidates will play serious role as many believe that the time of party affiliation should give way for credibility.
However, political pundits are of the opinion that Enugu North Senatorial District and non-indigenes of the state would decide who becomes the next governor of the state, particularly as Enugu North has the largest number of electorate and non-indigenes who are not bound by any zonal or clannish cleavages. All the four major candidates, Frank Nweke Jr, Uche Nnaji, Chijioke Edeoga and Peter Mbah are from Enugu East Senatorial District.
Also, the cold war between Nsukka and Nkanu will definitely play out and depending on how it is managed, it has the potentials of determining the governorship election on Saturday.
The Church is another factor that might determine the election because in the last February 25 election, one of the parties, blamed their failure on the church and called some priests with unprintable words and names, accusing them of having directed their congregations to vote against them. So, the church, a beautiful bride now, is expected to play a major role also in the election in Enugu State and it now depends on which of the candidates that would make better use it.
Also of importance in shaping the election is the performance of the incumbent government, which many say would make or mar the chances of their candidate in the election.
More importantly, the youths will shape the election as they have the largest number of voters and are anxious about whom and the political party that can deliver to them their needs as they seem also to be tired of rhetoric.
Head or tail, Enugu State governorship election will not be an easy one, but will definitely be interesting.
CROSS RIVER
The governorship race between the two leading candidates: Senator Bassey Otu of the APC from Cross River South and Prof. Sandy Onor of the PDP from Cross River Central.
A key factor is that the state’s 1.5 million registered voters are split along ethnic lines – Efiks and Atams. Senator Otu is from the Efik tribe in the South Senatorial District while Prof. Sandy Onor is from the Ejagham stock, which cuts across 10 of 18 local government areas that make up the state. Besides, the Ejaghams are also part of the Atam tribe, which is an added advantage for the PDP candidate.
Another factor that would play a key role in who wins the election is zoning. While the APC and its candidate, Sen. Otu, are agitating for power shift to the South with the back-to-South mantra, PDP and its candidate, Prof. Onor, are insisting on merit and ability to deliver quality leadership to the people.
For APC, they argue that for equity, justice and fairness as well as in line with the old tradition of zoning, it is the turn of the South. But PDP has kicked against this, arguing that since 1999, every zone had contested the governorship race.
The party further argued that every zone had produced governor and, therefore, it should be left open for the South and the Central zones to test their strengths.
Moreover, the outcome of the Presidential and National Assembly elections would influence the governorship election in the state.
Ahead of the NASS poll, PDP was riding high on opinion poll, but the pundits got it wrong as APC swept seven of the 11 NASS seats leaving three for PDP and one for LP.
Hence, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s victory has added impetus to APC, and emboldened the state chapter to go into the governorship election with confidence while leaving the opposition downcast and as an underdog.
Analysts have argued that the governorship race is a two-horse race between APC and PDP. So, whosoever that would win needs to dialogue with the Obidients as they hold the ace considering their impressive outing recorded in the presidential election in the state.
So, the PDP and APC need to re-strategise, to come with another winning formula considering the fact that the Obidient Movement in Labour Party doesn’t have a strong candidate.
Akwa Ibom
Akwa Ibom State has never been affected by the spiral effect of the presidential and National Assembly elections when it comes to deciding the governorship in the past. So, the March 11, governorship election, may not be any different.
Other things being equal, PDP would still maintain its traditional lead, which it has tenaciously held on to since 1999. This means that the PDP candidate, Pastor Umo Eno would sail through, especially as he has the unshakable support of Governor Emmanuel Udom, and with all the official structures of the government in the 31 local government areas being that of the PDP. Akwa Ibom is the only state in South-south and Southeast beside Bayelsa that secured victory for the PDP.
Another factor that would work in PDP’s favour is the near absence of opposition in the governorship race. The YPP candidate, Senator Bassey Albert Akpan, who has gained a lot of popularity since defecting from PDP to YPP, will have a lot of difficulty achieving his desire of becoming the governor of the state since at the moment he is encumbered by a 42-year-jail term slammed on him by Justice Agatha Okeke of the Federal High Court, Uyo, for corruption. Lawyers say his winning the governorship election would be a mere academic exercise, unless the Court of Appeal sets aside the judgment before the election.
The APC, which could has given PDP a good fight is still in a quandary and confusion over who the party’s candidate is between Senator Ita Enang and Mr Akan Udofia. Both are in court to justify their claims.
Though on paper it appears that PDP will have a smooth sail, there are some other factors that may knock the wind off its sail. One of these is the Akpabio factor.
Akpabio’s odyssey from the labyrinth of primaries litigation to reclaiming the Akwa Ibom Northwest (Ikot Ekpene) senatorial ticket on the platform of the APC can only be ignored by the PDP at their own peril.
With the PDP about to lose three Reps members and one senator in a single election, all in one senatorial district, it means the party is likely to also lose even more House of Assembly members to the Akpabio effect. So, Akpabio’s victory would definitely swing votes to APC candidates to the detriment of the PDP.
Lack of motivation could also cause voter apathy. Voters have complained that this is the most austere election ever conducted in the state. This is partially due to the current cashless policy which has prevented money from flowing freely into the hands of the voters through the array of mobilisers; and partially due to the fact that PDP doesn’t seem to have a credible governorship opponent.
Whichever party that does the magic and brings out raw cash would have instant voting support from the voters who are already hard up. The failure or impending failure of three of the PDP house of Reps members would also affect their supporters in Abak, Ikono and Ikot Ekpene as the trounced candidates would be too demoralised to encourage people to go out and vote for the governorship and House of Assembly candidates.
But other things being equal, PDP will still control the state at the executive and legislative level.
OYO
The road to re-election is now looking somewhat rough for Governor Seyi Makinde, the candidate of the PDP in Oyo State.
The outcomes of the presidential and National Assembly elections constituted some of the potholes and speed bumps along the way for the governor, who hitherto was favoured by opinion polls to win his re-election bid, though not with a wide margin as it was in 2019, when a coalition worked in his favour.
Though Makinde did not say it openly that he supported Asiwaju Bola Tinubu against the PDP presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, many believe he worked for the APC candidate. Eventually, Tinubu won the presidential election in Oyo State, scoring 449,884, while Atiku polled 182,977.
Now, that the Atiku did not win the presidential election, some forces may have risen against Makinde’s re-election bid. The battles he has to fight are both internal and external. It is a fact that the PDP in Oyo State is divided into two, with one supporting Atiku and the other supporting Makinde, though both sides have been saying they are one.
Political analysts have contended that the people in the party that were loyal to Atiku may work against Makinde, for purportedly contributing to the defeat of Atiku in the state. The other side are the PDP senatorial and House of Representatives candidates that lost the election. But Makinde has held meetings with all the PDP candidates.
A number of them believe that the stand of Makinde on the election made them to lose. If adequate steps are not taken by the party to persuade the candidates that lost the elections to keep hope alive, they may stay in the party and work for another party against PDP on March 11.
The victory of Tinubu in Oyo State and Nigeria at large has given a renewed hope to APC that it can oust Makinde from office through the ballot box.
Already, the APC has the states three senatorial seats in its bag and the majority of the federal constituencies for the House of Representatives.
The governorship candidate of APC, Senator Teslim Folarin and the winners of the National Assembly polls in the state on the party’s platform have started aggressive mobilisation and media campaign for APC to win the guber race.
KADUNA
With less than a week to the governorship and state assembly elections, there are strong indications that the ruling APC in Kaduna State will face an uphill task in retaining power due to some factors that cropped up recently, unless by sheer divine providence.
No thanks to the just concluded presidential and National Assembly elections where the major opposition, the PDP had a field day. It cleared the three senatorial seats in the state as against two seats hitherto controlled by the APC.
Also, the PDP grabbed 10 of the 16 federal constituency seats contested for, while APC and LP won four and two respectively.
Interestingly, political pundits have noted that with these victories, the chance of the opposition PDP to winning the governorship has brightened. The reason being that the new lawmakers-elect, among other party stakeholders, would work relentlessly.
Although, there are over 15 governorship candidates of the various political parties in Kaduna State, there are four major contenders.
The four major contenders are Senator Uba Sani of the ruling APC, Mohammed Isa Ashiru of the PDP, Suleiman Hunkuyi of New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and Jonathan Asake of the Labour Party.
None of them is leaving any stone unturned in their respective moves to win the election, just as the contest promises to be fierce and interesting.
Senator Uba Sani, who represents Kaduna Central Senatorial Zone, wears the toga of anointed candidate of outgoing Governor Nasir el-Rufai. He retained el-Rufai’s Muslim-Muslim ticket introduced in 2019 by selecting the current deputy governor of the state, Dr. Hadiza Sabuwa, as his running mate.
However, Senator Sani’s generosity and compassion for the people may work out positively for him at the polls, but the people’s anger against the ruling APC at the presidential polls may be a big minus for his election. The major opposition PDP won the presidential election convincingly in the state.
Mohammed Isa Ashiru, who is the PDP candidate, is contesting for the governorship race for the third time. A two-term former member of the state House of Assembly and later two-term member of the House of Representatives, Ashiru crossed over to the APC in 2014 and contested with El-Rufai for the governorship ticket, but lost.
As the PDP candidate in 2019, he lost again to El-Rufai. Ashiru is determined to defeat Sani in the election having garnered the goodwill of the people who are aggrieved with the APC administration in the state.
However, the traditional bloc votes of the PDP in Southern Kaduna is no longer feasible as the votes would be shared with the Labour Party which had caused political tsunami during the presidential polls, unless PDP goes into strategic realignment with the LP in quest to sack the APC.
Suleiman Hunkuyi, a former senator who represented Kaduna North Senatorial district on the platform of the APC in 2015, is also not new to the contest. He is the candidate of the NNPP.
Hunkuyi is a grassroots mobiliser, who has boasted on several occasions to be “a veteran politician.”
Jonathan Asake, candidate of the LP, is a physicist and one of the pioneer federal lawmakers in 1999 at the inception of the Fourth Republic during the presidency of Olusegun Obasanjo.
Until he joined the governorship race, he was the President of the Southern Kaduna Peoples Union (SOKAPU).
He is popular among his people in Southern Kaduna, though the area had been a stronghold of the PDP since 1999. The area was said to have produced the highest votes for the PDP in the 2019 presidential race. Political analysts believe Asake should join forces with PDP to prove wrong the allegations that he is being sponsored by the APC to divide the bloc votes in Southern Kaduna and make it return to power.
However, Asake had since dismissed the allegations as imaginary tales by moonlight by those who are threatened by his rising political status and chances of winning the governorship election.
NASARAWA
The governorship election in Nasarawa State is likely to be a closely contested race, with several factors influencing the outcome. The performance of the current administration, the sudden popularity of the Labour Party, the strength of the PDP, and local dynamics will all play roles in shaping the election.
In the Presidential and National Assembly elections, LP showed outstanding performance that led to the defeat of the former governor and present Senator, Tanko Al-Makura, of the APC, in the southern senatorial zone.
The ruling APC, which hitherto held all the federal constituency seats was only able to win three out of the eight seats. The strong position of the PDP in the state will be a decisive factor.
KWARA
The factor of bandwagon effect looks strong to influence the outcome of the governorship election in Kwara State given that the ruling party in the state has already clinched the presidency.
This is the position of Alhaji Yusuf Abdullahi, a retired civil servant and public affairs analyst, who added that the party that wins at the centre is more likely to attract the votes of the people.
Moreover, from all indications, he asserted that the opposition party, the PDP, is fragmented into groups and tendencies, which have not been able to build a united front that can effectively deploy an election-winning strategy.
“Even if they do alignment now, it is too late as voters are not ready to be pushed here and there,” Abdullahi said.
Then there is the issue of wearing of hijab by female Muslim students as some Christians are not pleased with this administration on the way it handled the matter. The governor was alleged to have taken side with the Muslim to the detriment of the Christians. Although the case is awaiting judgment at the Supreme Court, but they are not not taking the issue lightly.
On the part of Pastor Lawrence Bamidele, he noted that in the February 25 National Assembly election, the APC cleared all the three senatorial and got six of the House of Representatives seats.
“The state chapter of APC also delivered the state to its presidential candidate, who was eventually declared victorious. So, it will be very difficult for any party to win in the state as the party wants to build on the achievements it recorded in the presidential and NASS elections last election,” he said.
Bamidele advised the opposition party members to eschew selfishness and come together, if the party is to make appreciable impact on Saturday.
He recalled that during the ‘O to ge’ struggle, everyone in the then opposition party (APC), now in power, buried their ambitions to wrest power from the Olusola Saraki dynasty in the state, saying that but in this election the PDP has not shown a sign of coming together, which is important in winning elections. Politics requires give and take, he said.
When asked about the impact of the Kwara North factor, the cleric-cum-politician said that it would not have any effect as the leaders have chosen to wait for the 2027 election cycle, which will be their turn for the governorship of the state.
Bamidele said that Kwara North has been ignored in the scheme of things, but the election of the current governor opened their eyes as they have received dividends of democracy.
Notwithstanding the permutations, Mr Niyi Adekeye stated that the governorship will be different in Kwara State. He said the fact that people voted for Asiwaju Bola Tinubu in the presidential election doesn’t mean that they will also vote for the APC governorship candidate.
“Yes, people love Tinubu, that’s why the result in Kwara was like that, but this governorship will be different as the current administration only faced one senatorial district which is Kwara North for his projects. How on earth will a governor for four years could not commission a single project with lots of financial windows open to him? It will be very wrong to say people will still vote this same set of rubber-stamp House of Assembly members to continue. Things might not be 100 per cent for APC as other political parties will come on board. I am sure of that,” Adekeye said.
KANO
There is no doubt that the need to secure the home state of the standard bearer of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, was largely responsible for his overwhelming success in the state.
However, the forthcoming governorship battle might be a different game as the two leading contenders, Abba Kabiru Yusuf of the NNPP and Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna of the APC are both Kano indigenes.
No doubt, Abba Kabiru Yusuf will benefit immensely from the influence of Kwankwaso, but would also suffer deficits from his political liabilities. Abba will also get the approval of many young voters in the state, many of whom are simply emotional or are fatigued by some of the regulatory policies in the state (such as the ban on commercial tricyclists beyond 10:00 p.m).
The majority of the beneficiaries of Kwankwaso’s scholarship scheme as the governor of the state might vote for the NNPP’s candidate. They mostly feel indebted to him for sponsoring their studies abroad.
In addition, the NNPP governorship candidate still enjoys the sympathy of those who believe that he won the last elections, but was denied. This class of voters would certainly vote for him again.
One factor that may also favour him is the growing relapse and mistrust within the APC in the state. Many of their senatorial and House of Representatives candidates, who lost their districts and constituencies during the last polls may not put in their best during the governorship polls.
In fact, some of the camps within the party in the Kano Central Senatorial districts are already accusing one another of anti-party activities during the last elections.
On the side, however, are the Muslim clerics in the state, a very influential institution in election matters, who appear favourably disposed to the APC administration which had carried them along over the last eight years.
The same thing goes for the monarchy. Not to forget that they were appointed by the Abdullahi Ganduje administration upon the deposition of Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, the former Emir.
And also, there is the lingering fear that a different government in the state might reverse the policy recognising the five emirate councils in the state, hence the need to vote for continuity.
A majority of the elite, including the business class, are likely to go with the APC. Some feel that Abba is Kwankwaso’s proxy and assume, rightly or wrongly, that Kwankwaso is bidding to return to the governance of the state through the back door. Hence, they need to oppose the NNPP candidate.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) is the incumbent and would take full advantage of its incumbency, especially now that the party has won at the centre and the heads of state institutions are expected to do the needful.
No less a factor in the race for Kano Government House is the role of the PDP in the elections. Their performance in the presidential elections was poor and disappointing and has yanked them off the list of contenders. But they are still very important as any of the parties that succeed in enlisting their support and votes may win the day.
Finally, violence rewards in Kano politics. That has been established by the 2019 inconclusive elections in the state. Therefore, any of the leading parties who effectively deploys thugs in the race may score some advantages at the end.
ABIA
Prior to the penultimate Saturday’s polls, which witnessed what has become known as the “Obi-wave” in the state, the thinking was that it was going to be the PDP all the way, as it had been since 1999, when the present democratic dispensation began.
However, the February 25 election altered the electoral status quo in the state. Previously, the PDP used to sweep the polls at every election cycle since 1999. The seeming invincibility of the PDP in the state was broken when poll results were announced. The Abia PDP, which previously held two seats in the Senate and six of the eight House of Representatives seats, could only get one House seat and lost all three Senate seats.
If what happened on February 25 in terms of voting pattern should play out again on March 11, it means that the Labour Party will have its way in Abia and the magic wand will be the Peter Obi factor.
Before Obi joined the presidential race, LP was relatively unknown in the state. Nobody gave it a chance of winning even a seat in the state assembly. To people’s consternation, however, LP did the unthinkable and won one Senatorial seat and six out of the eight House of Representatives seats in the state.
The Obi factor, which greatly influenced the voting pattern on February 25, is likely to swing the pendulum in favour of LP during the governorship election.
Again, many in the state believe in what has come to be known as Abia Charter of Equity, which prescribes that power should rotate among the component political blocs of the state.
It was in line with this that former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu who is from Abia North handed over to Senator Theodore Orji from Abia Central who later handed over to the incumbent, Dr Okezie Ikpeazu.
When many believed power would move back to Abia North, some people from the Ngwa axis created a quasi-political bloc called Umunneato and insisted it will be their turn to govern the state after Ikpeazu from Ngwa bloc must have completed his tenure. PDP finally zoned the governorship seat to the area, and this did not go down well with the people, particularly those from Abia North area of the state.
With the Obi-wave and the anger being expressed by some people over the zoning policy of the PDP, the people may decide to vent their anger on PDP come March 11 and Labour Party or the Action People’s Party (APP) will benefit immensely from such action.
BENUE
The top three candidates in the battle to take over from Governor Samuel Ortom are the incumbent Speaker of the Benue State House of Assembly, Mr Titus Uba of the PDP, Rev Fr. Hyacinth Alia of the APC and Rt. Hon. Herman Hembe of the Labour Party.
The victory of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has altered the governorship race, Pastor David Ogbole argued, saying that it would certainly orchestrate alignment and realignment by stakeholders for who politics is their primary livewire.
“They can’t bear to be on the losing side or in the wilderness for the next four years. So, a lot of them have hitherto been on the fence, secretly romancing with the PDP while in APC or secretly romancing with APC while in PDP and others secretly romancing with Labour Party while in either APC or PDP.
“Now, what they romanced in the private, they will now marry in the open in terms of giving allegiance to the person that has won at the national level, believing that the power at the centre will now transcend to the state and influence the outcome at the local level.
Spokesperson of the PDP in Benue State, Mr Bemgba Iortyom, noted that issue of security challenges, which has bedevilled the state, would play significant role in deciding how the people of Benue will vote.
“We have two major political parties in Benue State. One is the PDP, which initiated the anti-open grazing law that is enforced in the state. The APC on the hand has promised that if it wins the governorship, it will review the law. So, it will be up to the people of Benue State to decide if they want to go with the law or not,” he said.
Almost on daily basis, Benue communities come under attack by gunmen suspected to be herdsmen. While over 6,000 persons have lost their lives, over two million others have been displaced from their ancestral homes. For most of them, their hope of participating in the election has been dashed.
Certainly, the Benue people will surely scrutinize the performance of the present PDP-led administration and decide whether to vote the party again or replace it with another through the ballot.
Meanwhile, the Publicity Secretary of Labour Party, Kengkeng Ati, said that the party is the only one that is talking about the issues affecting the Benue man.
“No other party is doing that. Sector by sector, we stay on the issues. While the election is a referendum on the current administration, others have used the sanctity of the church to bamboozle the people. None can deliver on the real issues affecting the Benue man other than Labour Party’s Herman Iorwase Hembe,” Ati said, adding that in voting for who will be the next governor, the people would have to make up their minds on which kind of life they want to live in the next four or eight years.
TARABA
In Taraba State, the combination of ethnicity, religion, party affiliation, outcome of the national election would play more prominent roles in determining the outcome of the election in the state, rather than political ideology and manifestos.
From 1999 to the recent time, the PDP has had a very firm grip on Taraba State politics. Not even the “APC tsunami” of 2015 and 2019 could change the narrative. However, pundits now believe that the party has entered her last days of glory as a number of factors seem to favour a paradigm shift in the political calculations of the state.
There are at least five major frontrunners for the governorship seat in the state, including the candidates of the PDP, Mr Kefas Agbu; APC, Senator Emmanuel Bwacha; SDP, Hon. Danladi Baido; NNPP, Prof Sani Yahaya; and LP, Senator Joel Ikenya, among others.
The politics of the state has become increasingly divisive along religious lines such that the only Muslim candidate may have an advantage over the other four Christian contestants.
Religion is a major issue in the state. The social media is already inundated with messages from Muslim clerics calling on all the Muslim Ummah in the state to vote for their own. The campaign in churches has also focused on ensuring that a Christian emerges the governor. In fact, the state chapter of CAN recently endorsed the PDP candidate as the sole choice of Christians for governor.
Other factors that would determine the outcome of the Taraba governorship election include ethnicity and zoning, the defeat of Governor Darius Ishaku by APC’s David Jim Kuta, who won election for the Taraba South Senatorial seat, the people’s perception of Ishaku’s performance, uncertainty over the status of the APC’s governorship candidate, Senator Emmanuel Bwacha, following the nullification of the party’s primaries by the Supreme Court which ordered a rerun held recently. Many in the party insist that APC has no valid governorship candidate.
DELTA
The upset pulled by the LP in the state during the Presidential and National Assembly elections has put the PDP and APC governorship and state assembly candidates on edge. The LP won 18 of the 25 local government areas, leaving the ruling PDP with just seven. LP also won two seats at the House of Representatives.
The main opposition party, APC won two senatorial seats and one House of Representatives while the ruling PDP won one senatorial seat and seven House of Representatives seats.
With LP now in the mix, the governorship and state House of Assembly elections promise to be an intriguing contest between the parties. In addition to the pedigree of the governorship candidates, internal crisis in the PDP and APC, as well as the victory of Tinubu will have some impact on the elections.
NIGER
Prior to the election of penultimate Saturday, the people had become disenchanted with the APC-led state government on account of its abysmal poor performance since 2015. Moreover, high level of insecurity had claimed the lives of hundreds of people, ransom worth over N100 million paid by poor farmers, who were also forced out of their ancestral homes.
The APC administration has been adjudged the worst in the state since the return to democracy in 1999. Against this background, the people are determined to throw out the APC administration. Sadly, the ruling APC may still retain the power it wrested from the PDP in 2015, on account of the bare-faced rigging it perpetrated in the Presidential and National Assembly, which was facilitated by manual collation and doctoring of the figures at the local government collation centres.
EBONYI
It will be a three-horse race between the governorship candidate of the ruling APC, Francis Nwifuru; PDP’s candidate, Ifeanyi Odii and the candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Prof Ben Odoh.
The governorship election will be shaped significantly by zoning, incumbency, party spread and dominance.
Since 1999, the governorship of Ebonyi State has been moving from one senatorial district to another until 2015 when it finally went round with the election of Governor David Umahi from Ebonyi South, who will conclude his second term on May 29, this year.
As political parties were preparing for primary elections last year, the issue of where the next governor of the state should come from was in the front-burner among the parties. Many felt that the governorship tickets of parties should be zoned to Ebonyi North where rotation started in 1999 since every district had got their turn.
However, at the end of the primaries, only the APC elected a candidate from the North. The major opposition PDP elected a candidate from Ebonyi South where the outgoing Governor Umahi hails from.
The APGA chose its governorship candidate from Ebonyi Central. Those clamouring for equity, justice and fairness will surely vote for the APC in the election.
The Presidential and National Assembly elections across the country showed that incumbency is no longer as powerful as it used to be given the way some serving governors were mercilessly beaten by opposition candidates in their bid to go to Senate.
However, in Ebonyi State, Governor Umahi was an interesting exception as he was able to win his senatorial seat, defeating a serving senator and the rampaging Labour Party candidate, Linus Okorie.
Many analysts argue that Umahi was able to escape the onslaught of LP and other opposition parties because of the power of incumbency. It’s, therefore, expected that the same incumbency factor will play very significant role in determining the swing of victory on Saturday.
The PDP had enjoyed unchallenged dominance in the politics of Ebonyi State since 1999, until the penultimate Saturday Presidential and National Assembly elections where it lost eight of the nine National Assembly seats in the state.
Surprisingly, the ruling APC showed dominance, spread and capacity by winning the three Senatorial seats and three House of Representatives seats leaving one each for Labour Party and the PDP while one Federal Constituency, Ezza North / Ishielu is declared inconclusive.
It is safe, therefore, to argue that judging by the outcome of the Presidential and National Assembly elections in the state, the ruling APC is in firm control of the state and will very likely lead other parties in the elections on March 11.
RIVERS
Rivers State is a violence-prone state, most especially when it comes to elections. Since 1999, election has been a do-or-die affair in the state.
Unlike the presidential election, the governorship and House of Assembly elections will witness voter apathy. Residents would be unwilling to demonstrate fate in INEC as they did during the presidential election, which was why they came out in large numbers to exercise their franchise.
Since INEC announced the results of the presidential election, there has been an unusual quietness, no celebration or jubilation in the state. Rivers residents still believe that there was a brazen subversion of the people’s will allegedly by the INEC and the state government.
While there is apprehension, the forthcoming elections may be bloody in the state. INEC and the state government would play key roles to determine the party that will win the governorship election.
In the forthcoming governorship and House of Assembly elections, Rivers electorate might not be interested in the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS). They believe INEC technically used it to rob them of victory.
If INEC and the state government allow the process to be free and fair, then the electorate will determine it.
KEBBI
In Kebbi State, the factors that would determine the outcome of the governorship and House of Assembly elections, include the outcome of the Presidential and National Assembly elections, influence of Senator Muhammadu Adamu Aliero and Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, the Emirates politics, and tribal game.
In Gwandu Emirate, which has the largest local government areas and densely populated by Fulanis, might support the famous governorship candidate and House of Assembly candidates who are popular among their kinsmen.
A similar scenario might play out in Argungu, Yauri, Zuru Emirates, which are densely populated with indigenous people who are agitating for better treatment and dividends of democracy in their areas.
However, the return of Senator Muhammadu Adamu Aliero as the Senator-elect from Kebbi Central and defeat of the incumbent governor, Senator Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, has sent a signal to the electorate in the state that APC has not worked for the people. For this reason, the ruling party might lose the state to the PDP, the main opposition party.
PLATEAU
It is obvious that the governorship election in Plateau State would be a keenly contest between the PDP, the APC and the Labour Party, which has shown strong visibility and strength through their performance during the Presidential and National Assembly elections.
Although the Labour Party led the state at the presidential election with 466, 272 votes against the APC with 307,195 votes and PDP 243,808 votes, but won Plateau North and South Senatorial Districts with five out of the eight seats for the House of Representatives in the state.
This shows that the governorship contest would likely be between the PDP who won the two Senatorial seats and five House of Representatives seats against the APC with three seats for the House of Representatives while Plateau Central Senatorial seat was declared inconclusive.
It is observed that ethnicity and religion are key factors that would influence the outcome of the governorship election in the state. The Muslim community who are predominantly found in parts of Jos North, Kanam and Wase local government areas would prefer to go with the APC candidate, Dr Nentawe Yilwatda and Kanke, his hometown Local Government Area, based on history.
However, the Christians in Jos South, Riyom, Barkin-Ladi, Bassa, Mangu, Pankshin, Langtang North and South, Quan’anpan and Mikang local government areas would prefer to go with the PDP candidate, Mr Caleb Mutfwang, a lawyer.
The Labour Party candidate, Dr Patrick Dakum may have a chunk of votes from Bokkos, Pankshin South, his hometown, Shendam and parts of Jos North Local Government Area as it is glaring that most citizens supported the Labour Party at the presidential election because of the desire for Peter Obi presidency.
Interestingly, Jos North Local Government Area where all ethnic nationalities in the country are found would be a battleground for each of the candidates who have enjoyed support from the area.
However, the performance of Governor Simon Lalong administration would make or mar the chances of the APC candidate, Dr Nentawe Yilwatda as that is one of the factors currently influencing the decision.
Also, the godfatherism syndrome is one of the critical factors that would influence the election in the state as the three political leaders and former governors in the state are queuing behind each of the candidates.
It was rumoured that Governor Lalong single-handedly mobilized resources and political support for the emergence of Dr Nentawe Yilwatda as the APC governorship candidate which many aspirants protested.
Yilwatda, a former INEC Resident Commissioner in Benue State, resigned to contest the governorship election.
Meanwhile, Mutfwang has the total support of former Governor Jonah David Jang whose performance during his tenure was what kept the PDP alive in the state throughout the eight years of Lalong’s administration.
Most Plateau citizens are aligning with Mutfwang because of his leadership courage and love for Plateau people, coupled with the achievements of the PDP during the Jang administration where Mutfwang served as Chairman of Mangu Local Government council.
However, Dr Patrick Dakum, Labour Party candidate, has the support of former Governor Joshua Dariye. He was commissioner for health and subsequently commissioner of information and communication under the Dariye’s administration.
All the former governors who have interest in the election are deploying their support for their preferred candidates ahead of the polls.
ADAMAWA
Ahead of the governorship election, Chairman of the LP, Adamawa State Chapter, Nicholas Christopher, has advised the party’s supporters to vote for the most competent and credible governorship candidate in the state in order to improve the fortunes of the state.
Nicholas said the party’s decision directing its members to vote for any other governorship candidate is consistent with Labour Party’s and Peter Obi’s good governance mantra as the party is committed to furthering the interest of the common man everywhere in the country.
In the same vein, he advised the party’s supporters to vote for all LP candidates running for the state House of Assembly in the state in order to strengthen the position of the party to rescue the people from the era of bad governance and misrule.
Nicholas stressed that all the assembly candidates of the party will enjoy the full backing of the party in order to have a strong presence at the state legislature.
Given that the LP governorship candidate, Umar Mustapha, endorsed Bola Ahmed Tinubu, it seems quite clear that he may also be working for the victory of the APC candidate in the governorship election.