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Challenges Atiku, Obi to public debate on subsidy restoration
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The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has warned that reintroducing fuel subsidy, irrespective of the name attached to it, could be disastrous for Nigeria’s economy, thus threatening fiscal stability, investor confidence and the country’s long-term energy reforms.
The policy group also challenged the presidential candidates of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Mr Peter Obi, to publicly explain how their proposed subsidy restoration policies would be funded and implemented without worsening the country’s fiscal challenges.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI urged the two opposition figures to provide Nigerians with clear, mathematically sound and empirically backed roadmaps for their respective proposals.
Akinsiju said political campaign promises should be anchored on sound policy logic rather than economic illusions designed for temporary electoral appeal.
He particularly questioned how any administration would compel International Oil Companies (IOCs) and private crude producers, which hold significant equity interests in Nigeria’s oil production, to sell crude to domestic refiners at government-mandated discounted prices.
According to him, such an arrangement could raise questions around existing contracts, international arbitration and investor confidence in Nigeria’s oil industry.
Akinsiju also demanded an explanation of how the Federal Government would absorb potential revenue losses from discounted crude sales, particularly given the dependence of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) on oil revenues.
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“With crude oil sales serving as the main source of foreign exchange and revenue for the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), how will your administration cover the trillions of Naira in monthly revenue shortfalls to states and local governments that a ‘crude discount’ or ‘production subsidy’ will inevitably cause?” he asked.
He further challenged the candidates to explain how their proposals would prevent subsidised crude or refined petroleum products from being diverted across Nigeria’s borders for profit.
Akinsiju said the issue was particularly important in a deregulated regional market, where significant price differences could create incentives for arbitrage and smuggling.
Beyond the economic implications, he questioned how a return to price controls or crude price differentials would be reconciled with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and its market-oriented framework for the downstream sector.
He also demanded transparency on how any subsidy arrangement would be funded. “Will the proposed support differentials be explicitly captured in the national budget passed by the National Assembly, or do you intend to revert to off-budget, unappropriated under-recovery deductions by NNPC Limited that previously depleted public finances and ballooned ‘Ways and Means’ debt?” he asked.
Akinsiju said Nigerians deserved complete policy clarity before the 2027 elections, insisting that subsidy proposals should not be presented merely as attractive campaign promises without credible financing and implementation plans.
He warned that returning to subsidy could reverse fiscal gains, weaken international credit standing and undermine efforts to achieve energy independence through domestic refining and local currency crude transactions.
“So we challenge Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Mr Peter Obi to move beyond generalised criticism and present a step-by-step, empirically-backed implementation roadmap that addresses these fundamental questions before the Nigerian public,” he said.
