Fossil fuel expansion threatens Africa’s climate goals–CAPPA

The Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) and the Africa Make Big Polluters Pay Coalition have warned that continued fossil fuel expansion, corporate influence and debt-driven climate financing could undermine Africa’s climate commitments and worsen the plight of vulnerable communities.

The organisations said African governments risked pursuing climate policies that prioritise corporate profits over environmental protection, energy access and the livelihoods of communities most affected by climate change. They raised the concerns at the launch and media presentation of reports assessing Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of five African countries, on the sidelines of the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye.

The reports, titled: Four Years On: Examining Nigeria’s Just Transition Plan and Nationally Determined Contributions in Africa: A Five-Country Analysis, examined climate commitments, policies, financing mechanisms and social protections in Nigeria, Cameroon, South Africa, Togo and Uganda.

Speaking at the event, CAPPA’s Executive Director, Akinbode Oluwafemi, said Africa, despite contributing relatively little to historical greenhouse gas emissions, continued to bear a disproportionate share of the consequences through floods, extreme heat and drought. He said Nigeria’s climate ambitions were being undermined by continued dependence on oil and gas, inadequate social protections and financing arrangements capable of deepening the country’s debt burden.

Oluwafemi said that corporate interests could exploit climate policies for profit while host communities continued to suffer environmental degradation and loss of livelihoods. “The Nigeria Energy Transition Plan and the Five-Country NDCs Reports offer an opportunity to rethink how energy policies and climate commitments serve people and communities. These reports emphasise that equity, transparency and accountability must remain central in every plan, while ensuring that affected communities have a meaningful voice in decisions that shape their future,” he said.

Presenting the findings, CAPPA’s Assistant Executive Director, Zikorah Ibeh, acknowledged progress in climate policy development and renewable energy deployment but said these had yet to fundamentally change the economic structures sustaining fossil fuel dependence.

“Our assessment recognises progress in policy development and renewable energy deployment but finds that cleaner energy is being layered onto an economy still heavily focused on oil and gas, without sufficient change in the institutions and revenue systems that sustain that dependence,” Ibeh said.

The Nigeria assessment identified a major contradiction between the country’s climate commitments and its fossil fuel production ambitions. It noted that while Nigeria had committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, it retained an official target of producing three million barrels of crude oil daily by 2030.

The reports further raised concerns about carbon markets and offsetting schemes, arguing that they could allow major polluters to evade direct emissions reductions by claiming compensation through projects elsewhere, including commercial forests and plantations. It estimated that Nigeria would require $337bn between 2026 and 2035 to meet its climate commitments, with 80 per cent expected from international funding.