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…Say FG’s interventions insufficient, want smallholder farmers prioritised
Nigeria may be heading toward a severe food crisis in 2026 as farmers across the country, particularly in the North-Central and North-West regions, warn that escalating production costs, insecurity and massive post-harvest losses are forcing many to consider abandoning agriculture altogether.
From Niger to Nasarawa, Kogi, and Kaduna states, small and medium-scale farmers told Nairametrics in separate interviews that despite recent government directives aimed at reducing food prices, soaring costs for essential inputs such as fertiliser, fuel, and labour have made farming increasingly unprofitable.
Several farmers cautioned that unless urgent measures are taken, the country could witness a mass exodus from farming, triggering severe food shortages next year.
Ibrahim Abdullahi, a rice farmer from Niger State, said the realities on the ground are far from the federal government’s promises to support farmers through various initiatives.
“The cost of fertiliser, pesticides, and fuel has tripled in the last two years. We can barely break even, and most of us are already running into debt,” Abdullahi lamented.
“If this continues into next year, many farmers will simply walk away from the farms. That’s when the real food crisis will hit.”
Similarly, Simeon Dabeng described the situation as dire, noting that many producers are already operating at a loss due to insecurity and inadequate government support.
“The cost of production in this country is very high. Farmers lack the right support, not to mention insecurity. Yet we are being asked to lower prices without subsidy or negotiation,” Dabeng said.
For Bashir, another rice farmer from Niger State, the federal government’s directive under President Bola Tinubu to reduce food prices will be unsustainable without tangible support for producers.
“This may not be sustainable if farmers are not supported to go back to the farm. The government must ensure that input costs are reduced and that rural infrastructure is improved to sustain production,” he stressed.
Patience Ayuba, a maize farmer in Nasarawa State, echoed similar frustrations, highlighting government neglect despite the sector’s critical role in national food security.
“Farmers are tired of empty promises. We cannot keep producing at a loss while everything, from seeds to diesel, keeps getting more expensive. Many of our youths are no longer interested in farming because there’s no profit and no protection,” she lamented.
Farmers across the affected regions reported suffering heavy losses during recent harvest seasons due to rising operational costs and poor market access. Several also blamed the collapse of earlier support schemes, such as the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP) introduced under former President Muhammadu Buhari, for the decline in productivity and enthusiasm among smallholder farmers.
“When the Anchor Borrowers Programme came, many of us went into full-scale farming. We left our jobs because we believed agriculture was the future,” said one maize farmer from Nasarawa State.
“But since that programme faded away and new ones haven’t reached us, many of us have abandoned our farms. We cannot keep working at a loss.”
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Insecurity has also emerged as a major deterrent to large-scale production. Banditry, kidnapping, and herder-farmer conflicts have forced many farmers to abandon their farmlands, while others now pay huge sums for private security.
Many farmers are calling on the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security and their state counterparts to prioritise smallholder farmers in 2026 budget plans.
“We want to feed the nation, but we cannot do it alone. The government must act now, not with promises, but with real action. Otherwise, next year’s harvest may be the smallest Nigeria has seen in decades,” one farmer warned.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the next lean season (June to August 2026) if timely and coordinated interventions are not implemented. This projection was contained in the October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis.
The report attributes the worsening situation to a combination of factors, including persistent conflicts in major food-producing regions, economic shocks, and the growing impact of organized crime. These challenges, the analysis notes, continue to erode resilience and deepen vulnerabilities, particularly in the North-Central states of Benue, Nasarawa, Niger, and Plateau.
Dr. Grace Alonge, an agricultural economist at the University of Abuja, said the warning signs are already visible.
“We are seeing reduced cultivation, poor yields, and a steady withdrawal of farmers from production. Unless the government introduces targeted interventions, such as subsidised inputs, improved access to credit, and rural security measures, the country may experience one of its worst food crises in recent history,” she explained.
Analysts such as Ben Okukpe from Nasarawa State University, Keffi, argue that while the government’s push to reduce food prices is well-intentioned, such directives must be backed by robust support systems.
“Input subsidies, mechanization programmes, rural road rehabilitation, and affordable credit facilities for farmers are crucial. Without them, reducing food prices could backfire, discouraging production and worsening food insecurity,” Okukpe said.
Beyond production costs and insecurity, post-harvest losses are a major factor driving farmers away from agriculture. Inadequate storage facilities, poor transport infrastructure, and high logistics costs often leave farmers unable to sell their produce at profitable prices, compounding the crisis.
“Even when we manage to harvest, much of the produce is lost before reaching the market. It’s heartbreaking to see months of hard work go to waste,” said Bashir, the Niger State rice farmer.
While the Federal Government has launched initiatives aimed at reducing food prices and improving agricultural productivity, farmers argue that the measures are insufficient. Without comprehensive input support, accessible credit, and rural security, directives to lower food prices risk being counterproductive.
Experts warn that if current trends continue, Nigeria could experience food shortages that exacerbate inflation and deepen poverty in 2026.
“We want to feed the nation, but we can’t do it alone. The government must act now — not with promises, but with real action. Otherwise, next year’s harvest may be the smallest Nigeria has seen in decades,” one farmer said.
On a positive note, there has been a decline in food inflation in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Nigeria’s headline inflation rate slowed to 18.02% in September 2025, down from 20.12% in August 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Food inflation stood at 16.87% year-on-year, representing a sharp drop from 37.77% in September 2024.
However, analysts caution that while inflation may have eased in urban centres, the looming threat of reduced production and farm abandonment in rural areas could reverse these gains if urgent interventions are not implemented.
