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There is something poignant about a week in which one king is preparing to be crowned and another kind of royalty has just left us.
Tonight, Moses Itauma will walk into The O2 in London with the heavyweight crown within touching distance. Across the Atlantic, the Queen of Country Music, Dolly Parton, has taken her final bow. She died during the week, aged 80, after a brief battle with cancer.
It is tempting to think of royalty as something bestowed by titles, belts, medals and ceremony. Dolly never needed any of that. She came from a one-room cabin in Tennessee and built an empire from a voice, a guitar, a gift for storytelling and an irrepressible belief in herself. She wrote songs that could break your heart, make you dance and, sometimes, do both in the same three minutes. She understood something champions in every field eventually discover: greatness is not merely about winning. It is about endurance. About finding a way to remain yourself while the world keeps asking you to become somebody else.
That may be why the arrival of Itauma’s moment feels strangely appropriate. The 21-year-old heavyweight has the chance tonight to become the second youngest heavyweight champion in history when he meets Filip Hrgović for the vacant IBF title. He is not there yet. Boxing has a nasty habit of punishing those who confuse promise with achievement.
But there is something unmistakably regal about the way Itauma has emerged. The speed, the confidence, the frightening composure of a young man who seems to regard the enormous business of heavyweight boxing as a problem to be solved rather than a mountain to be feared.
Dolly knew something about mountains. She climbed hers from poverty, prejudice and the assumptions people made about a blonde woman with a big voice, big hair and an even bigger personality. She was underestimated often enough to make underestimation part of her mythology. Then she kept producing songs, films, businesses, books and acts of generosity until the joke was on everybody who had failed to see what was coming. And perhaps that is the thread between Nashville and The O2 this week.
The Queen is gone. The king-in-waiting is stepping forward. Dolly leaves behind a catalogue of more than 3,000 songs, including Jolene and I Will Always Love You, and a legacy that stretched far beyond music into literacy, philanthropy, film and business. Itauma, meanwhile, has yet to write the defining chapter of his own story.
Tonight, he gets his blank page. There will be noise. There will be expectation. There will be the possibility of glory and the very real possibility that Hrgović will make him pay for every youthful assumption. But that is what a coronation fight is supposed to be. And somewhere, in the background of the weekend, there will be Dolly’s voice — forever reminding us that the biggest stars are not necessarily those who enter the room demanding that we notice them. They are the ones who leave the room having made it brighter.
So let us mourn the Queen, and let us watch the young man chase his crown. One legend has left the stage. Another may be about to claim his.
SO, WHO WINS TONIGHT?
If you have spent any time on YouTube recently, you will know the boxing gurus are divided. Those backing Moses Itauma believe he is simply too fast, too sharp and too explosive for Filip Hrgović.
Dave Allen, who actually shared a ring with Hrgović, has predicted an Itauma knockout in two or three rounds. Eddie Hearn has reached much the same conclusion, calling Hrgović a world-class heavyweight but believing Itauma will be “much too sharp” for him.
That word — sharp — keeps coming up. And for good reason. Itauma’s greatest weapon may not be his power but the speed with which he gets from thought to punch. At 21, he has fast feet, quick combinations and the confidence to attack without appearing rushed. But here is where Hrgović enters the argument. The Croatian is not coming to London to hand the young star his coronation. He is 20-1, with his only defeat coming against Daniel Dubois, and he has rebuilt his momentum with victories over Joe Joyce, David Adeleye and Allen. He is a big, strong heavyweight who knows how to impose himself physically.
That matters because Itauma has not yet been forced to answer every question a heavyweight champion must answer. What happens when the opponent survives his best work? What happens when somebody keeps walking towards him?
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Those are questions YouTube highlights cannot answer. Hrgović’s best chance is to make this an uncomfortable fight — physical, close and demanding. If he allows Itauma space to dictate the tempo, he could be playing directly into the youngster’s hands. But if he can make Itauma fight at close quarters, experience suddenly becomes important.
That is the great contradiction of this contest: Itauma has the future. Hrgović has the present.
There is also a psychological edge to Hrgović. He has already experienced the disappointment of losing a major opportunity. Itauma has not. The Croatian has questioned the quality of Itauma’s opposition, while Itauma has responded angrily. Good. Let them dislike each other. Heavyweight fights are better when there is something personal underneath the tactics.
Then comes Teddy Atlas, the former trainer of Mike Tyson, with perhaps the biggest compliment of all. Atlas has suggested that Itauma at 21 is more multidimensional than Tyson was at the same stage, pointing to his counterpunching, body work, traps and ability to fight at different ranges.
That is enormous praise — perhaps too enormous. The danger of comparing Itauma with Tyson or any other heavyweight legend is that we begin judging the young man against history before he has completed his own apprenticeship. Itauma does not need to be the next Tyson. He needs to be the first Itauma.
Which is why I do not see this simply as a coronation. I see it as an examination.
The experts can argue. The betting public can debate the knockout round. Former fighters can tell us how special Itauma looks. But when the bell rings, the ring will ask only one question:
Can he do it against a man who refuses to cooperate?
My answer is yes — just not as easily as some are suggesting. Itauma’s speed is the decisive factor for me. Hrgović’s upright stance gives the younger man targets, while Itauma’s ability to change levels and throw combinations should make the Croatian increasingly uncomfortable. Hrgović will have his moments, particularly if he can make the fight physical, but Itauma should create enough angles to avoid prolonged exchanges.
The longer the fight remains at Itauma’s preferred tempo, the more the advantage swings towards the Briton.
If Itauma wins, the question will no longer be whether he belongs among the heavyweight elite.
It will be: How far can he go?
If Hrgović wins, the story changes completely. He becomes the man who stopped the latest British heavyweight sensation before the dream became reality.
That is what makes heavyweight boxing so delicious. There is no safe prediction.
Moses Itauma — speed over experience, precision over pressure, and youth finally announcing itself as heavyweight royalty.
The gurus have spoken.
Now let the fighters settle the argument.
