Data and a different African story

By Wale Osofisan  

A  number of people have asked why I have become so unapologetically “bullish” about Africa. It is a fair question. After two decades working across international development, governance reform and institutional strengthening, one lesson has become impossible to ignore: policy choices matter, institutions matter and the narratives we allow to define us matter even more. Outcomes do not emerge from sentiment. They emerge from structure, incentives and the stories that shape how the world engages with us.

For too long, Africa’s story has been narrated through the narrow lens of crisis: conflict, corruption, fragility, instability. These labels travel easily. They seep into risk models, investor briefings, diplomatic engagements and media framing. They quietly determine how African governments are treated, how African assets are priced and how African people are valued. Some actors benefit from a narrative that keeps Africa in a perpetual state of dependency. The long-term cost to us— economically, politically, psychologically— is enormous.

But the data tells a very different story, one that rarely gets the microphone.

Five of the eight countries projected to account for more than half of global population growth between now and 2050 are African, according to UNECA. By 2030, sub-Saharan Africa’s contribution to global labour force growth will exceed that of the rest of the world combined, as the World Economic Forum notes. This is not a footnote. It is a structural shift in global human capital that will reshape supply chains, labour markets and consumption patterns for decades.

The African Development Bank’s 2024 outlook places eleven of the world’s twenty fastest growing economies in Africa — Niger, Senegal, Libya, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Benin, Djibouti and Tanzania among them. These are not isolated bright spots. They are part of a broader continental trend of economic dynamism driven by reforms, investment in infrastructure, and expanding domestic markets.

Under the AfCFTA, the World Bank estimates that 30 million Africans could be lifted out of extreme poverty and $450 billion in income generated by 2035 if implementation continues. That is not charity. That is structural transformation through market integration.

And then there is energy. Africa holds 60% of the world’s best solar resources but only 1% of installed solar PV capacity, according to the Energy Institute. That gap is either a monumental failure or the single largest infrastructure opportunity on the planet. The continent’s renewable energy potential is not just an environmental asset. It is a competitive advantage in a world shifting toward green industrialisation.

Of course, the fundamentals are not uniformly positive. Some of the same fast growing economies — Ethiopia and Niger, for example — carry real fiscal and debt fragility. The IMF has flagged overlapping monetary and external vulnerabilities across the region. Growth is happening, but it is happening alongside risks that require disciplined macroeconomic management and stronger buffers.

Being bullish does not mean being blind. It means recognising that something important is shifting.

Across the continent, quiet but consequential institutional gains are taking root. Rwanda, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, Botswana and Ghana have strengthened regulatory quality and public financial management. Digital governance reforms: E procurement, digital IDs, automated tax systems are reducing leakages and improving transparency. Tax to GDP ratios are rising. Domestic revenue mobilisation is improving in Kenya. And in Nigeria, non oil exports have surpassed oil exports for the first time in decades — a symbolic but significant marker of economic diversification. These reforms do not trend on social media. They do not dominate headlines. But they build states. They create predictability. They reduce transaction costs. They strengthen the social contract. They are the foundations on which long term prosperity is constructed.

And then there is Africa’s youth — often framed as a burden, but in reality one of the continent’s strongest sources of leverage. Young Africans are building in fintech, logistics, health, agriculture, climate innovation and the creative economy. They are not waiting for permission. They are not waiting for external validation. They are building because the alternative is stagnation, and they refuse it.

This entrepreneurial energy is not anecdotal. It is structural. It reflects a generation that is globally connected, technologically fluent, and unwilling to inherit narratives that diminish their ambition. It is one of Africa’s most powerful competitive advantages.

So, yes, I am bullish on Africa, not because of sentiment, not because of romanticism, but because the fundamentals are shifting, even with real risks attached. The continent is not a monolith. It is a mosaic of trajectories. But the direction of travel is clear: more integration, more innovation, more agency, more institutional strengthening, more demographic leverage.

Where Africa goes next will depend on how we organise ourselves — how we structure our institutions, how we manage our politics, how we negotiate our place in global markets, and how we choose to tell our story.

Narrative is not decoration. It is strategy. It shapes perception, and perception shapes opportunity.

If we do not shape the narrative, others will — and their version will not serve our interests. This is the moment to reclaim the microphone. It’s time to speak with confidence. It’s time to build with intention. To insist on a narrative that matches our ambition and move from being spoken about to speaking for ourselves. Let’s move from being defined by risk to being defined by opportunity. We shall move from dependency to agency.

Africa is not waiting to be discovered. Africa is organising, building, reforming, integrating and asserting itself. The world is shifting, and Africa’s role in that shift will be determined not by sentiment but by the choices we make and the stories we tell. I am bullish on Africa because the data demands it. The fundamentals justify it. And the next generation insists on it.

• Dr. Osofisan writes from Kenya