From Abel Leonard, Lafia
As the 2027 governorship race in Nasarawa State gradually gathers steam, the political landscape is already heating up with speculations, alignments and manoeuvres among major stakeholders. While official campaigns are yet to begin, political observers and analysts are already dissecting the strengths, weaknesses, and possibilities of various contenders across party lines — especially from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
SDP: The Uncertain Future of Senator Ahmed Wadada
Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada, the current lawmaker representing Nasarawa West under the platform of the SDP, is a major political figure with strong grassroots appeal. His performance at the National Assembly and his emergence as a third-force powerbroker after the 2023 elections earned him widespread admiration.
However, recent rumours suggest that he may be considering a return to the APC, owing to his close relationship with the state APC Chairman, Dr. Aliyu Bello, who has publicly expressed admiration for Wadada. Political observers note that if Wadada defects to the APC, it could dramatically alter the equation within the ruling party, potentially displacing other hopefuls.
Yet, stakeholders warn that a return to the APC might also damage his outsider appeal — the very perception that made him stand out in 2023. His chances largely depend on his next political move, and analysts believe his credibility remains intact, but his acceptability within APC structures may face resistance from entrenched aspirants.
APC: Crowded field, emerging favourites
The ruling APC appears to have the largest pool of potential candidates, but with no clear frontrunner — at least for now.
Dr. Faisal Shuaib, the former National Primary HealthCare Development Agency (NPHCDA) Executive Director, is widely regarded as a technocrat with impeccable credentials and humanitarian track record. His role in public health and community engagement gives him a populist edge, especially among youths and civil society.
Analysts say his major strength lies in his credibility and non-controversial record. But he does not have a deep political structure, which may hurt his chances unless he gains strong backing from influential power blocs within the APC.
Another person, who is also being talked about, is the former IGP Mohammed Adamu, a respected security expert and one-time Nigeria’s top cop. However, political observers see his ambition as largely driven by elite consensus rather than popular demand. His political relevance within the state has dwindled since his retirement, and his acceptability among the grassroots remains weak. Stakeholders believe he may play the role of a kingmaker rather than a viable frontliner.
Dr. Musa Ahmed Muhammad, the current State Accountant-General, is also nursing governorship ambition. His technocratic background is seen as a plus, just as he remains known among the broader populace. Analysts believe he has the political charisma and public engagement required for a competitive race, though his financial ties to the state’s structure could aid his ambition if backed by the incumbent.
M.S. Haruna, former Executive Vice Chairman of NASENI, is another APC hopeful. He brings with him a track record of federal service and innovation, but like other technocrats, suffers from limited grassroots political experience. Stakeholders say he could emerge as a compromise candidate if internal party factions cannot agree on a stronger aspirant.
Muhammed Abdullahi, former Minister of state for Science and Technology, has been actively consulting across the state. However, uncertainty trails his political loyalty, with speculations of his possible defection to the PDP. When pressed in a recent interview, he vaguely described himself as a man “of the people’s party,” leaving observers guessing. His political future hangs in the balance as many await his next move. His acceptability remains moderate, but questions of trust and consistency could undermine his momentum.
PDP: Ombugadu and the burden of 2023
For the PDP, the biggest name remains Dr. David Emmanuel Ombugadu, the party’s 2023 gubernatorial candidate. Though he was widely believed to have won that election before the outcome at the Appeal, and the Supreme court changed all that. Recent reports alleging that he accepted N3 billion to “sell out” his victory to the APC have stained his reputation.
Despite the allegations — which remain unsubstantiated — Ombugadu still commands a loyal support base, especially among youths and religious communities. Stakeholders within the PDP see him as a “tried and tested” option, but political analysts caution that his credibility must be rehabilitated quickly if he intends to run again. His silence amid the bribery allegations has fuelled doubts about his integrity and credibility, and his future candidacy is now viewed with mixed feelings.
According to political analysts, the 2027 governorship race in Nasarawa State will not just be a battle of political parties but a test of trust, credibility, and strategic alliances. The electorate, now more conscious and demanding, will likely favour a candidate with a strong track record, clear vision, and grassroots connectivity.
However, Adamu Umaru, a political commentator said the APC remains the party to beat due to its incumbency advantage and control of state resources, but that internal wrangling could affect its chances. He added that the PDP, while still licking its 2023 wounds, may resurge if it fields a more unifying and untainted candidate, while the SDP’s relevance hinges on whether Senator Wadada remains or defects, which could lead to a realignment of opposition forces.
As one political observer in Lafia put it: “This election will not be business as usual. The people are watching, and whoever wants to win must earn the trust of the masses — not just the backing of godfathers.”
The indigeneity debate: A growing fault line
One pressing issue that could significantly influence the choices of political parties and candidates in 2027 is the growing sentiment around indigeneity. Across Nasarawa, murmurs of ‘who really belongs’ have resurfaced, often drawing lines between original ethnic communities and settlers, especially in urban and cosmopolitan areas like Karu, Lafia, and Keffi. Some grassroots groups are demanding that only ‘true indigenes’ of the state, with ancestral lineage and community allegiance, should be considered for high offices like that of a governor. This sentiment, though contentious, is gaining traction in political discourse.
According to political observers, candidates perceived as ‘non-core indigenes’ or those with dual roots—despite their qualifications or popularity—may face resistance in certain blocs.
They are of the view that political parties will have to tread carefully in their nominations, balancing merit with local sentiment to avoid internal revolts or voter apathy.
This debate also feeds into the broader question of inclusiveness and identity politics. “Nasarawa has historically enjoyed relative ethnic harmony, the increasing politicisation of indigeneity could fracture long-standing alliances if not handled with sensitivity,” a source told Daily Sun.
The Voter’s Lens: Credibility over party loyalty
One trend that cuts across all political divides is the evolving mindset of voters in Nasarawa. Increasingly, the people are scrutinising not just party platforms, but individual antecedents, credibility, and connection to grassroots realities.
Political analyst, Dr. Musa Ibrahim, a Political Scientist with the state university, stated that “the Nasarawa electorate in 2027 will not be easily swayed by slogans or moneybags. They want leaders who can solve real issues—youth unemployment, insecurity, education, and healthcare.”
He also stated that religious and ethnic balancing will also play a role, but not to the exclusion of competence. “Candidates will need to engage across all senatorial zones, transcending regional loyalties to build a pan-Nasarawa appeal.”
Strategic alliances and game-changers
The weeks and months ahead will witness intense lobbying, horse-trading, and possible defections. If Senator Wadada rejoins the APC, it could reshape the party’s internal dynamics. If Abdullahi, the former minister of state for Science and Technology, also defects to the PDP, it may strengthen the opposition’s chances as well.
In contrast, if new entrants or coalition movements emerge, they could fragment votes in unexpected ways. Political observers believe that voter turnout, especially among youths and first-time voters, could be the game-changer.
For now, the field remains fluid, with more questions than answers. Who will get the APC ticket? Can the PDP rally around Ombugadu or find a unifying candidate? Will Wadada’s next move seal or scuttle his gubernatorial dream? It seems only time will tell.
As the political chessboard continues to shift, one thing remains certain: the 2027 governorship race in Nasarawa will not just determine the next leader—it will reflect the people’s judgment on credibility, performance, and vision.