Follow Us on Google
…Misses top 10 GDP contributors’ list for 3 years
By Chinelo Obogo, [email protected]
Nigeria’s aviation sector has been conspicuously absent from the top 10 non-oil contributors to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for three consecutive years.
Daily Sun analysed Nigeria’s GDP report from Q1 2022 to Q3 2024 as released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and it showed that the transportation sector (which includes, air, road, rail, water transport, post and courier services), has not been among the top contributors to real GDP growth since Q1 2022. This suggests that while transportation is crucial for economic activity, its direct contribution to GDP growth has been limited. Real GDP is the value of a country’s goods and services produced in a specific period, adjusted for inflation or deflation. It is an important indicator of a country’s economic health.
The contribution of the transportation sector to Nigeria’s GDP declined in Q2 2024 compared to both the previous year and the previous quarter. It contributed 1.05 percent to nominal GDP, a decrease from the 1.35 percent recorded in the corresponding period of 2023, and lower than the 1.66 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2024. While the nominal growth was not adjusted for inflation and was less negative compared to the previous year, it was still below the positive growth rate of the previous quarter.
For the real GDP, which is the focus of this analysis, the sector contributed just 0.74 percent in the same quarter (Q2 2024), lower than the 0.89 percent recorded in the preceding year and lower than 1.18 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2024. This negative growth rate indicates a decline in output adjusted for inflation. In contrast, Daily Sun’s analysis shows that information and communication, trade and real estate, has consistently been a major driver of Nigeria’s economic growth. While agriculture has maintained a significant contribution, that of the manufacturing sector has been stable.
In the first nine months of 2024, the finance and insurance sector led Nigeria’s 3.2 percent GDP growth with the industry contributing 30.3 percent, followed by water supply, waste management and remediation at 8.3 percent. The mining and quarrying sector contributed 5.7 percent, with the information and communication sector following closely at 5.2 percent, arts, entertainment and recreation, 3.8 percent, while energy supply is at 3.4 percent, accommodation, food and services, 3.3 percent, health and social services, 2.6 percent, public administration, 2.2 percent and education, 1.9 percent.
Quarter-by-quarter analysis of top GDP contributors
Q1 2023: Trade (15.97 percent), Information and Communication (17.47 percent), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (3.25 percent), Real Estate Services (5.31 percent) Construction (4.22 percent), Financial and Insurance (5.35 percent), Manufacturing (10.13), Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply (0.20 percent), Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation (0.23), Public Administration (1.63 percent).
Q2 2023: Information and Communication (19.54 percent), Trade (16.80 percent), Agriculture (23.01), Manufacturing (8.62 percent), Real Estate Services (5.29), Financial and Insurance (5.26 percent), Construction (3.23 percent), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (3.05 percent), Public Administration (2.17 percent), Other Services (2.72 percent)
Q3 2023: Services Sector (52.70 percent), mining and quarrying (5.64 percent), agriculture (29.31 percent), manufacturing (8.42 percent), electricity, gas, steam and air Conditioning supply (0.37 percent), water supply, sewage, waste management rand Remediation (0.20 percent), construction (3.36 percent) and trade (15.19 percent).
Q4 2023: Agriculture (26.11 percent), Trade (15.50 percent), Information and Communication (16.66 percent), Real Estate Services (6.06 percent), Finance and Insurance (4.95 percent), Mining and Quarrying (4.91 percent), Manufacturing (8.23 percent), Construction (3.47 percent), Public Administration (2.10 percent), Education (2.05 percent), Human Health and Social Services (0.66 percent)
Q1 2022: Agriculture (22.36 percent), Trade (16.13 percent), Information and Communication (16.20 percent), Real Estate Services (5.34 percent), Finance and Insurance (4.51 percent), Construction (4.18 percent), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (3.23 percent), Public Administration (1.63 percent), Education (1.92 percent) and other services (4.05 percent).
Q2 2022: Agriculture (23.24 percent), Information and Communication (18.44 percent),Trade (6.81 percent), real estate services (5.33 percent), finance and insurance (4.25 percent), mining and quarrying (6.51 percent), construction (3.21 percent), professional, scientific and technical services (3.04 percent), other services (2.74 percent) and public administration (2.17 percent)
Q3, 2022: Agriculture (29.67 percent), information and communication (15.35 percent), trade (15.35 percent), real estate services (5.61 percent), finance and insurance (3.49 percent), mining and quarrying (5.90 percent), Construction (3.32 percent), professional, scientific and technical services (3.23 percent), other services (2.23 percent), public administration (2.05 percent).
Q4 2022: Agriculture (26.46 percent), information and communication (16.22 percent), trade (15.82 percent), real estate services (6.18 percent), finance and insurance (3.95 percent), mining and quarrying (4.71 percent), construction (3.47 percent), professional, scientific and technical services (3.34 percent), other services (2.23 percent) and public administration (2.05 percent).
The sectoral breakdown shows that overall, finance and insurance, agriculture and information and communication have been consistent drivers of Nigeria’s GDP growth, while the aviation sector has struggled to make any meaningful impact.
Experts insist that the aviation sector holds enormous potential for rapid economic transformation if well harnessed via strategy investments and political support.
