An Abuja-based think tank, Agora Policy, has raised the alarm that climate change poses severe and multiple threats to Nigeria’s current and future development and called on the Nigerian government and other critical stakeholders to take it more seriously.
The report equally noted that climate change compounds poverty challenges, undermines achievement of SDGs in Nigeria, and puts Nigeria at the risk of becoming one of the worst-affected countries if urgent and bold actions are not taken. It also urged Nigeria to embrace opportunities offered by the green economy and pursue a low-carbon and climate-compatible development path.
According to the report produced by the MacArthur Foundation, and titled, “Climate Change and Socio-Economic Development in Nigeria,” it is evident that climate change is not a marginal or peripheral issue that the government and the people of Nigeria can take lightly.
The report acknowledges and details a plethora of climate-related initiatives, including policies, programmes and projects, and even the 2021 climate change law put in place or undertaken by successive Nigerian governments but claimed that the potentials of these initiatives and interventions were undercut by the absence of commensurate action, lack of synergy and inadequate funding.
The 84-page report noted that Nigeria, despite her relatively low emission profile, was already bearing the brunt of the effects of the changes in climatic conditions and adverse weather events, stressing that the tolls could be significantly higher if urgent and bold actions were not taken. “Climate change is compounding poverty challenges in Nigeria and impeding the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It is already increasing hunger, poverty, disease-burden, migration, conflict and insecurity in Nigeria. It is damaging infrastructure, changing Nigeria’s coastlines, fuelling desertification, producing water scarcity, facilitating erosion and resulting in the loss of revenue for states and the national government,” the report said.
The report stated that as at 2020, Nigeria was losing at least $100 billion annually to the effects of climate change, warning that the country could lose trillions of dollars in manufacturing, construction and oil and gas assets likely to become stranded as the world gravitates to a green economy.
“Nigeria risks becoming a stranded country. Climate change has the potential to further jeopardise Nigeria’s economic development and alter its geographical, social and political trajectory for decades,” the report said.
It also highlighted the different channels through which adverse effects of climate change could worsen in Nigeria and further compound the country’s developmental challenges. Some of the highlighted areas included projected 2.9- and 5.7-degree Celsius rise in temperature across different ecological zones in the country; increased occurrence of floods, droughts, erosion and rising sea levels; the likelihood that 75 percent of the Delta could be lost; and further adverse effects on agricultural yields, food security, health burdens, water and energy sufficiency, peace and security, and adequacy and longevity of critical infrastructure.
However, the report also identified opportunities for Nigeria to address climate change while supporting economic growth and resilience.
It said: “Climate change offers opportunities for economic competitiveness, energy security, and sustainable development. There are many climate-led opportunities that Nigeria can explore to enable rapid economic growth, create jobs for a rapidly growing youthful and urbanising population, and address high levels of abject poverty and inequality through a just transition.”
Urging Nigeria to consciously pursue a climate-compatible development agenda, the report recommended such strategies to Nigeria as investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency, promoting climate-smart agriculture, embracing green manufacturing, harnessing natural resources for adaptation, and enhancing disaster risk reduction systems, saying, “Leveraging climate action to pursue economic development in Nigeria is not only a viable but also an essential strategy. The global transition from a high-carbon economy to a low-carbon economy is already well underway and will produce winners and losers across the world. Whether Nigeria will swim or sink in the face of the transition will depend on its willingness to take urgent action now and re-align its national development strategies towards a low-carbon economic future. To transform climate change from a significant threat into an opportunity requires deliberate planning supported by immediate, bold and courageous action.”
Other prescriptions made by the report for Nigeria included strengthening national climate change framework; mainstreaming climate change into the country’s development process; building a climate-resilient and competitive economy; boosting adaptive capacities of communities in different ecological zones in the country; incentivising investment in low-carbon industries; increasing public awareness about climate change; advocating for a fair and just energy transition; and pursuing a collaborative approach to low-carbon development.
“It is our hope that this report will further raise the policy profile of climate change issues in Nigeria and trigger the necessary actions on what is clearly an existential issue for our country,” says Waziri Adio, the founder of Agora Policy. “Climate change did not feature as a major issue in the 2023 general election, despite the significant challenges and opportunities it presents to the country. It has also not featured as a major priority of the new administration. This needs to change, and urgently too.”