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By Chinelo Obogo
African airlines had the weakest performance in August 2023, with a 4.7 per centdecline in cargo volumes compared to August 2022, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said.
The data released by the aviation body for August 2023 for global air cargo markets, shows that year-on-year air cargo demand grew for the first time in 19 months. It also shows that this is a significant decrease in performance compared to July (+2.3%). Notably, Africa–Asia routes declined by 1.1per cent in August following an 11.2 per cent growth in July. Capacity was 3.8 per cent above August 2022 levels.
North American carriers saw their air cargo volumes decrease by 1.2 per cent. This was an improvement in performance compared to July (-5.4%). Carriers in the region benefitted from a slight improvement in growth on two major trade lanes: North America – Europe (2.9% annual contraction in August,1.2 percentage points better than in July) and Asia – North America (declined 4.2per cent in August compared to 4.4per cent decrease in July). Capacity increased 2.7per cent compared to August 2022.
European carriers saw their air cargo volumes decline by 0.2per cent in August compared to the same month in 2022. This was, however, an improvement in performance versus July (-1.0%). Volumes saw an increase due to the forementioned Europe–Asia performance and a small increase in the Middle East – Europe markets by 0.4 per cent. Capacity increased 3.6 per cent in August 2023 compared to 2022. Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 4.9 per cent in August 2023 compared to the same month in 2022.
This was a significant improvement in performance compared to July (+2.3%).
Carriers in the region benefited from growth on two major trade lanes: Europe-Asia (up from 3.1% in July to 8.8% in August) and Middle East-Asia (up from 2.7% in July to 3.5% in August).
Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 1.4% year-on-year increase in cargo volumes in August 2023. This was an improvement from the previous month’s performance (-0.1%). The demand on the Middle East–Asia market has been trending upward in the past three months, expanding its year-on-year growth from 1.8% in June to 3.5% in August. Capacity increased 15.7% compared to August 2022.
Latin American carriers had the strongest performance in August 2023, with a 6.2% increase in cargo volumes compared to August 2022. This was a significant increase in performance compared to the previous month (+0.5%). Capacity in August was up 13.7% compared to the same month in 2022.
Additionally, the within-Asia trade lane also performed better in August, with international CTKs contracting by 4.7% compared to the 9.7% annual decline in July. Available capacity for the region’s airlines increased by 28.5% compared to August 2022 as more belly capacity came online from the passenger side of the business.
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), was up 12.2% compared to August 2022 (11.8% for international operations). This was largely related to belly capacity which rose 30% year-on-year as airlines ramped-up operations to meet peak-northern summer travel season demand.
In August, both the manufacturing output Purchasing Managers Index or PMI (49.4) and new export orders PMI (47.0) saw a slight improvement to the previous month. They remained, however, below the critical threshold represented by the 50 mark, indicating a continuing, if slower, annual decline in global manufacturing production and exports.
Global cross-border trade contracted for the fourth month in a row in July, decreasing 3.2% year-over-year. This reflects the cooling demand environment and general macroeconomic conditions.
Inflation saw a mixed picture in August, with an increase in US consumer prices for the second month in a row. Meanwhile in Europe and Japan, consumer and producer prices fell. In China, which is fighting deflationary pressures, consumer prices rose.
IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, said: “Air cargo demand grew by 1.5% over the previous August. This is the first year-on-year growth in 19 months, so it is certainly welcome news. But it is off a low 2022 base and market signals are mixed. Looking ahead, while many uncertainties remain, we can take some optimism from PMI data moving towards positive territory. This is particularly significant as we head into air cargo’s traditional peak year-end season.”
