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By Chinelo Obogo
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released data for November 2023, which showed that African airlines total cargo volume increased by 3.9 per cent, a slight improvement compared to October’s +2.9 per cent growth performance. Capacity was 14.0 per cent above November 2022 levels.
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 13.8 per cent in November 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This performance was significantly above the previous month’s growth of 7.6 per cent. Available capacity for the region’s airlines increased by 29.6 per cent compared to November 2022 as more belly capacity came online with the removal of COVID-19 restrictions. While North American carriers had the weakest demand growth in November with a 1.8 per cent increase (YoY) in cargo volumes, a significant improvement in performance compared to October’s -1.8 per cent contraction, European carriers saw their air cargo volumes increase by 6.7 per cent in November compared to the same month in 2022. This was a stronger performance than in October (1.0 per cent). Capacity increased 6.5 per cent in November 2023 compared to 2022.
Middle Eastern carriers had the strongest performance in November 2023, with a 13.5 per cent year-on-year increase in cargo volumes. This was similar to the significant improvement noted in the previous month’s performance (+13.0 per cent), while Latin American carriers experienced a 4.2 per cent increase in cargo volumes compared to November 2022, very similar to the 4.0 per cent year-on-year increase recorded for October. Capacity in November was up 7.7 per cent compared to the same month in 2022.
Globally, demand for air cargo went up 8.3 per cent in November, indicating the strongest year-on-year growth in roughly two years. This is partly due to weakness in November 2022, but also reflects a fourth consecutive month of strengthening demand for air cargo. Most of the capacity growth continues to be attributable to the increase in belly capacity as international passenger markets continue their post-COVID recovery. Compared to November 2019 (pre-COVID-19), demand is down 2.5 per cent while capacity is up 4.1 per cent.
Two leading indicators of global air cargo demand; manufacturing output and new export order Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) continued to hover just below the 50-mark in November with small positive movements indicating a deceleration of the economic slowdown. Global cross-border trade recorded growth for the third consecutive month in October, reversing its previous downward trend.
Inflation in major advanced economies continued to soften in November as measured by the corresponding Consumer Price Index (CPI), centering around 3 per cent year-on-year for the United States, Japan, as well as the EU, in November. In the meantime, China exhibited negative annual growth in its CPI for the second time in a row. Air cargo yields (including surcharges) continued their significant upward trend (+8.9 per cent since October). Rising yields are in line with improving air cargo load factors over recent months. This could be tied in part to booming e-commerce deliveries from China to western markets.
IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, said: “November air cargo demand was up 8.3 per cent on 2022—the strongest year-on-year growth in almost two years. That is a doubling of October’s 3.8 per cent increase and a fourth month of positive market development. It is shaping up to be an encouraging year-end for air cargo despite the significant economic concerns that were present throughout 2023 and continue on the horizon.”
