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By Beifoh Osewele
More than 2.3 million registered voters, 332 wards, 3,763 polling units, 4,427 BVAS devices, 25,310 security personnel comprising 15,000 police officers, 10,210 NSCDC personnel, about 100 EFCC operatives and over 30,000 NYSC members being mobilised as INEC ad-hoc election personnel will be at the centre of Saturday’s Osun State governorship election as Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Najeem Salaam, battle for control of the state.
The election, coming nearly four years after Adeleke defeated the then-incumbent APC candidate, Gboyega Oyetola, has developed into a three-way contest in which incumbency, party structure, voter turnout, geographical strength and the performance of the third-force candidate could determine the outcome.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) said the final register contains 2,339,233 voters, spread across 30 local government areas, 332 Registration Areas (wards) and 3,763 polling units. The commission is deploying 3,763 BVAS devices to the polling units, with 664 additional devices kept as backups, bringing the total number of BVAS devices prepared for the election to 4,427.
The scale of the electorate, however, does not necessarily mean that the candidate with the largest popular support will win. In a closely fought election, where votes are concentrated in particular areas, the size of winning margins in strategic LGAs could matter as much as the statewide vote total.
Beyond the numbers, five factors could ultimately decide who emerges victorious on Saturday.
Adeleke’s personal machine versus APC’s structure
The biggest political question is whether Adeleke’s personal following can compensate for the loss of the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) structure under which he won the 2022 election.
Adeleke is now contesting under the Accord Party, meaning he must prove that the political coalition that produced his first victory was built around him as a candidate rather than the PDP as a party.
The governor, nevertheless, enters the election with a major advantage: incumbency. He has spent almost four years in office, has statewide visibility and has had time to build a political network around the machinery of government.
His challenge is to persuade voters who supported him under the PDP in 2022 to follow him to a new platform. Accord does not possess the organisational depth of the PDP or the APC. Much of the responsibility for mobilisation at ward and polling-unit levels will, therefore, rest on Adeleke’s personal political structure and the network of supporters he has built since 2022.
If his personal political machine has grown beyond the PDP’s structure, the party switch may have limited impact. If it has not, the absence of the PDP’s traditional grassroots machinery could become a major weakness.
For the APC, the calculation is almost the reverse. Oyebamiji has the backing of one of Nigeria’s two dominant political parties, with an established structure extending from the national level to wards and polling units.
The APC also controls the Federal Government, allowing it to present the election as a choice between an administration aligned with Abuja and one operating outside the ruling party.
But federal power alone is no guarantee of victory. The APC controlled the Federal Government when it lost Osun to Adeleke in 2022. Its challenge this time is, therefore, to convert its institutional and organisational advantages into actual votes.
Turnout and the battle for winning margins
The second decisive factor will be turnout. With 2,339,233 registered voters, the size of the register gives the three campaigns a huge pool from which to mobilise support. But registered voters do not automatically translate into votes.
Each candidate must get supporters to the polling units, ensure they are accredited and keep them engaged through the voting process.Turnout could be particularly important in areas where the leading candidates have established strongholds.
Adeleke’s route to victory depends heavily on maintaining substantial margins in Osun West, particularly around the Ede axis, while remaining competitive elsewhere.
Oyebamiji, meanwhile, needs the APC to maximise its votes in its traditional strongholds and reduce Adeleke’s margins in areas where the governor is dominant.
The critical question may, therefore, not simply be who wins an LGA, but by how much.
Adeleke could lose some LGAs and still win statewide if he produces sufficiently large margins in his strongest areas.
Conversely, Oyebamiji could overcome Adeleke’s advantage in Osun West if the APC produces big margins in Central and Eastern Osun while making meaningful gains in competitive areas.
Osun West, Central and East: The geographical arithmetic
The third factor is the geographical distribution of votes. Adeleke’s strongest structural advantage remains Osun West, particularly Ede North and Ede South.
In the 2022 governorship election, Adeleke won Ede North with 23,931 votes against Oyetola’s 9,603, while he won Ede South with 19,438 votes against 5,704.
Those margins provided a substantial foundation for his statewide victory.
He will, therefore, need to protect his advantage in the Ede axis while remaining competitive in areas such as Osogbo, Olorunda, Egbedore, Odo-Otin and Orolu.
For the APC, Osun Central offers a potentially important counterweight. Boripe, for instance, was one of Oyetola’s strongest areas in 2022, where he defeated Adeleke by 21,205 votes to 7,595.
Oyebamiji will need to replicate or improve on such margins in APC-leaning areas while making inroads into Adeleke’s strongholds.
But the most unpredictable zone could be Osun East. The 2022 results showed a divided political map, with the APC winning some areas while Adeleke carried others.
Ilesa East and Ilesa West, Ife Central and Ife East, Ife South and Ife North, Atakunmosa East and Atakunmosa West, as well as Obokun and Oriade, will therefore be closely watched.
Small shifts in voter preference in these areas could have statewide consequences.
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Salaam and the third-force vote
The fourth factor is the performance of ADC candidate Najeem Salaam.
The former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly does not have the advantages of either Adeleke or Oyebamiji.
He has no incumbency and does not command the nationwide party structure available to the APC.
But a third-force candidate does not necessarily have to win many LGAs to influence the outcome.
If Salaam attracts a significant share of voters in closely contested areas, he could deny either Adeleke or Oyebamiji the votes needed to produce a decisive margin.
His strongest opportunity lies among voters dissatisfied with the incumbent but unwilling to support the APC, as well as voters opposed to the APC who may not be comfortable following Adeleke’s move to Accord.
The size, and more importantly, the geographical distribution of Salaam’s vote will determine whether the ADC candidate merely finishes third or becomes the candidate who effectively determines who finishes first.
If the election is close, a few thousand votes transferred to Salaam in strategic LGAs could change the final arithmetic.
Security, BVAS and election-day logistics
The fifth, and perhaps most immediate, factor is the conduct of the election itself.
INEC has identified security flashpoints and difficult terrains across the state, while thousands of security personnel are being deployed for the exercise.
The election will take place across 3,763 polling units in 332 wards, making logistics a major undertaking.
Technology will also play a central role. INEC has prepared 4,427 BVAS devices — 3,763 for deployment at polling units and 664 as backups. The devices will be used for voter accreditation and the electronic capture and upload of polling-unit results.
The effectiveness of the BVAS deployment could, therefore, have a direct impact on turnout, particularly in areas where voters are already concerned about security or where the contest is expected to be close.
Any significant delay, malfunction or logistical failure could discourage voters and trigger disputes.
But the security challenge goes beyond preventing violence. Security agencies must ensure that voters are not intimidated, political parties are allowed to mobilise peacefully and election materials reach polling units on time.
The heavy security presence must also be handled carefully so that it reassures voters rather than creates an atmosphere of siege.
The battlegrounds to watch
Several LGAs deserve particular attention because of their potential to influence the final result.
Ede North and Ede South remain central to Adeleke’s strategy because of the margins he enjoys there.
Boripe is important to the APC’s effort to maximise its Osun Central advantage.
Osogbo could be another decisive battleground because of its size, political importance and the intense competition among the three camps.
In Osun East, Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Ife Central, Ife East, Ife South, Ife North, Atakunmosa East, Atakunmosa West, Obokun and Oriade will be closely watched.
The outcome in these areas may not necessarily be determined by a dramatic shift in overall voter preference. A small change in the size of the winning margin could be enough to alter the statewide calculation.
The final equation
The Osun election is, therefore, more than a contest between three candidates.
For Adeleke, it is a test of whether incumbency and personal political popularity can overcome the organisational disadvantage of leaving the PDP for Accord.
For Oyebamiji, it is a test of whether the APC’s extensive political structure and control of the Federal Government can finally translate into victory in a state where the party lost in 2022.
For Salaam, it is an opportunity to demonstrate whether a third force can break the dominance of the two major camps and potentially determine the outcome.
But ultimately, five things will decide the poll: the strength of Adeleke’s personal political machine, the APC’s organisational capacity, voter turnout and geographical margins, the size of Salaam’s third-party vote, and the credibility and efficiency of election-day security and logistics.
With 2,339,233 registered voters, 30 LGAs, 332 wards, 3,763 polling units and 4,427 BVAS devices, Saturday’s election will be decided not merely by who has the biggest crowd at rallies, but by who can most efficiently convert political support into accredited votes and secure the strongest margins in the areas that matter most.
