ADC and politics of choosing presidential candidate

By Chidiebere Onyemaizu

Barely a year to the next general elections, opposition political coalition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), currently the rave of the moment for opposition politicians, appears to be in a dilemma as to how to weld together disparate interests within its fold and navigate a safe and rancour-free pre and post presidential primary election.

Standing as a lone credible opposition party, a flurry of opposition politicking aimed at throwing the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) out of power is understandably gravitating around the ADC. Observers say the rapid rise of the opposition coalition as the rallying platform for politicians opposed to the APC and by extension President Bola Tinubu’s return in 2027 was conditioned by Nigeria’s erstwhile ruling party, the People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) current acute paralysis. With PDP’s near collapse state, the ADC to many of its (PDP) members and some disgruntled APC members eyeing elective offices in 2027, presents an alternative, viable platform to actualise their ambitions.

However, behind the facade of ADC’s behemoth posturing lies deep worry by its chieftains and leaders that the choice of the party’s presidential candidate for the 2027 presidential election could prove fatal to its survival and success in the election.

For now, the three known presidential aspirants in the ADC are former Anambra State governor and the Labour Party presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi, former Vice President and the PDP presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential election, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and the immediate past Minister for Transport and former Rivers State governor, Chibuike Amechi.

The three leaders have at different fora declared their irrevocable resolve to grab the ADC ticket. In fact, speaking recently at the OBIDIENT Conference and official declaration for the ADC by LP, APC and PDP supporters in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Obi emphatically declared he would contest next year’s presidential election on the ADC platform. Reaffirming his resolve, Obi assured his supporters: “I want to assure you that I will contest the coming election even if it is held in their bedroom, and if they don’t want to transmit the results, we will transmit them for them.”

For Obi’s supporters under the aegis of the “Obidient movement”, it is the ADC presidential ticket for their principal or nothing. They have consistently made it clear that if he is not on the ballot as the presidential candidate of the ADC, they will not participate in the 2027 election.

On his part, Atiku has repeatedly brushed aside suggestions that he stands down from the race for the ADC presidential ticket in favour of a younger person. Atiku’s insistence on grabbing the party’s presidential ticket and contesting the 2027 presidential election even at 79 and after several failed presidential bids, many say, gives fillip to the speculations that rather than a broad opposition platform, the ADC coalition is after all the former Vice President’s personal brainchild and a platform he cobbled together as a vehicle to achieve his long- standing presidential ambition, having lost the struggle for PDP’s soul.

Through his spokespersons, Atiku has been consistent in expressing optimism that he would emerge the ADC candidate and subsequently goes ahead to win the presidential election.

Amechi, on his part is insisting that, in the spirit of the unwritten North-South rotational principle, the ADC should zone its presidential ticket to the South to complete the term of a sitting Southern President, Tinubu. The Obidient movement also holds this view, thereby fuelling fears  about the possibility of the emergence of a pan- Southern bloc within the party for the purpose of torpedoing Atiku’s chances.

However, credible sources within the ADC have informed Daily Sun that the former Rivers State governor premised his call for the zoning of the party’s presidential ticket to the South on the believe that if the contest is narrowed down to him and Obi, he (Amaechi) with the help of external support, will emerge victorious.

Another source privy to the highwire politicking unfolding in the ADC swore that Atiku camp will insist on open, competitive primary, especially with the new electoral act restricting the mode of selection of candidates by parties for elections to direct primaries and consensus arrangement.

According to the new Electoral Act, signed into law last week by President Tinubu, all registered party members now have full voting power in a direct primary election to choose party candidates as opposed to vesting such  power on select party delegates.

A commentator on topical national issues, Dr. Abraham Amanga believes that the new selection process will be weaponised and monetised by unscrupulous and desperate politicians to achieve their political goals: “There will be vote bazaar at that level. A politician with the deepest pocket will simply out spend his opponents by gathering eligible party members and buying off their votes” Dr Amanga told Daily Sun.

Meanwhile, an ADC insider has emphatically told Daily Sun that Atiku camp will never agree to zoning or consensus arrangement as that could endanger his chances. “Direct primary election is the joker here. They know that Obi, though possessing the financial wherewithal to buy up ADC members who will be voting, will never do so hence the field will be wide open for the party’s members to be financially induced and influenced by other aspirants with heavy war chest”, he said

Having at every fora vociferously declared it is their principal or nothing, watchers of the race for the ADC presidential ticket predict that Obi’s failure to clinch the ticket may dampen the morale and enthusiasm of his supporters and force them to boycott the election as they have repeatedly threatened, thus robbing whoever emerged as the party’s presidential flag bearer significant votes and support at the polls.

In the same vein, political pundits argue that since a good percentage of the core Muslim North appears disenchanted with the APC- led federal government and desirous of return of power to the region, it is believed that Atiku is the reason for the appreciable foothold and presence the ADC enjoys there. Also, many in that part of the country equally believe that the ADC presidential ticket will be clinched by the former vice president effortlessly.

However, in the event that he was eventually pressured into standing down for Obi or if the ADC zones the ticket to the South, the North, according to political analysts, will likely look away from the ADC and, for religious considerations, re-switch support to President Tinubu, especially if he again runs on a Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Dr. Amanga summarises ADC’s situation thus: “I don’t know if the leaders of the ADC are not seeing it: Their party will be facing a big dilemma in terms of choice of a presidential candidate; it will be a make-or-break situation and requires wisdom and tact to handle.”

Daily Sun has however learnt that an alleged external forces’ vested interest in who emerges the ADC presidential candidate, could prove a deciding factor in the 2027 presidential election. It is being alleged that external forces sympathetic to the ruling party and infiltrators into the ADC are strenuously working behind the scene to ensure that Obi and Atiku are not in the ADC ticket either as a candidate or running mate.

“There are external elements sympathetic to the APC who regard Obi’s ADC presidential candidacy or Atiku as the flag bearer and Obi as his running mate as a huge threat to the re-election of President Tinubu next year and are working concertedly to thwart such scenario. They are instead scheming for the emergence of a weak candidate as ADC’s presidential candidate victory to ensure an easy sail for APC’s return to Aso Rock next year”, a source familiar with the alleged plot told Daily Sun.

Meanwhile, an avalanche of diaspora Nigerians favourably disposed to the ADC coming to power in 2027 have reportedly indicated willingness to fund the opposition coalition presidential campaign provided Obi is on the ballot either as presidential candidate or as a running mate.

One of the sources close to the group told Daily Sun that “Obi either as number one or number two in an ADC government is an assurance of credibility, good governance and respect for democratic institutions the western governments seek in a post-Tinubu government and this is why we are backing the coalition and ready to commit resources to ensuring it wins the 2027 presidential election. “