ADC and options for 2027

This is part of the countdown to 2027 general elections. The atmosphere is already heating up even though the citizens, whose main business it is to make a choice of those they give power in trust for another four years, appear not to have adequate grasp of the matters playing out. The political class so far has made it their affair which is to say the least unfortunate.

Ordinarily the people should set the tone, after all it has been said they are the sovereignty, power to hire and fire rests with them. Last week the desire of the citizens to have further improvement on the electoral system through real time electronic transmission of results from the polling units direct into the electoral body’s central server, a move geared towards making the electoral process more credible almost was almost dashed by the members of the National Assembly, who in approving the people’s demand added a caveat that that a recourse to manual recording be made where internet facilities are not available.

The fear is that the penchant to take advantage of loopholes which the proviso represents could be pervasive. The fear isn’t a misplaced one, after all we agree that “experience” is one of the best teachers. President Bola Tinubu who signed the new law with speed asked citizens to have trust but national experience so far shows our political class is not only treacherous, the politicians are experts in double speaking, saying one thing for public consumption and in time of real action acting out their hearts’ desires. 

Even the president who is appealing for understanding and trust in our system is on record to have said politics and elections is not fun, it is akin to war: “You fight, grab, snatch and run with it.” This is the challenge. It must be said that this is a malaise the members of the African Democratic Congress ( ADC) committed themselves to solving. They were in the forefront of the forces demanding for making “real time electronic transmission of results” not only a law but part of the evidence in the event of post-election litigations but the curious law which was pulled through and assented to by the President has left them as losers and made the country apprehensive. 

The signs don’t look good. All that happened to this point was predictable. A perceptive group of political players especially in our kind of environment knowing the antecedents of the president ought to have been worried when a chunk of its group chose to cross party lines to work with the president from an opposing political party. In our situation the experience confirmed it doesn’t produce any good rather it would serve as a strong tool for instability and decapitation.

The former governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, is rambunctious, they know the damage this could bring yet they allowed him to stay in peace in an alliance that would definitely turn to become adversarial. What would they have done? Simple: they should have told him to come out immediately or be expelled. Rather than this happening they watched as he managed to stir up acts that sent them packing from their former bases. 

They ran to take over the ADC but the truth which we said last week is that even there the foundation still looks very shaky. If things were properly done perhaps they would have had control of their old platforms and then started the move for electoral reforms from the very point the Supreme Court finished with its verdict on the presidential election of 2023. What held them back was partly lack of clarity on individual ambition or  vision and national good. Key players were at a loss what to do next, this cloudy season wouldn’t have been if the priority was positive national development. 

Narrow objectives still plagued proper search for an alternative platform when it became inevitable. Who would run became the basis for how they found a party. There is a truth critical analysts have avoided this far from saying and that is the fact that as currently constituted ADC is the party of Atiku Abukakar. He thought about and worked with his men to give reality to the thought. Forget those others masquerading on the platform and making boasts, they are all “strangers”. 

When Atiku and his group say “our party doesn’t have zoning as a rule”, they know what point they are making and the power behind the positioning. They control all the levers of the party. When the same group insist on direct open primaries they know they have all the advantages, leave out the influence of money now. The thinking is “let’s get the presidential ticket first and we will work to fill in the gaps.” The average politician in our country is ever bubbling with over enthusiasm. He has this belief he can do and undo. This is often the foundation of a terrible fall.

This is exactly at the root of what has robbed ADC of shine, impetus and widespread acceptance. The philosophy of keeping vital decisions under wraps perhaps until when it is too late. The same leaning would destroy it before the polls. 

 Three candidates currently standout as possible to square up against the incumbent President Bola Tinubu. They are Peter Obi, Atiku Abukakar and Rotimi Amaechi. Of the three only Peter Obi can galvanise the kind of strength that can make ADC competitive. Of course, one must add that if backed by the rest and the other party members with full commitment. Whether the ticket can produce a win is a different matter.

Let’s make no mistake about this vital point: this is not playing down Atiku, he is a nationalist, consummate political figure, one of the best political actors to emerge from the country since independence. He is liberal with friendship that cuts across religion and tribe. It is true he has contested severally and lost but he always posted great runs. His support base has remained solid. His challenge has been timing. Many times he would have waited, he got blinded by his towering presence in national politics and this always proved costly.

The same scenario is on now. Nigerians agree it is the  “turn” of a Southerner. Southeners agree on this; we will expand on this point next week. In a nutshell it will amount to grievous political misdirection for Atiku to run now the pressure of age not withstanding. Rotimi Amaechi is good but for now his scope remains very limited. 

Peter Obi remains ADC best bet for 2027. Yes it is not so much about zoning but given where we are it would make great sense to fight from that angle and this would offer the party a great foothold. There is a reason APC, the president’s party wants all governors in Southeast to decamp and join the party. We will explain that next week. 

Obi is intelligent, relatively young and smart and has so much appeal among the highly educated and exposed young people of our country. His message resonates well with them. A lot of northerners despite what grievances may not go with Atiku, the reasons we leave for next week. 

Those who wish to see democracy entrenched in the country are happy to see our politicians display political sagacity to try to throw up the ADC. They must be in their best wits to ensure the solid foundation for the party across the country. The concern over one party is there and the truth is for a huge country such as ours one party state would be a recipe for big instability. No one who knows the place of our country in the upliftment of the Black Race should desire disorder in any form in the country.

This is why the creators of the new party should be alive to the task they took on themselves on behalf of the country and ensure they take it to far greater height. Malcolm X said, “good doesn’t just come easy.” He has a valid point.