Ahead the 2027 elections, President Bola Tinubu is not leaving anyone in doubt on his desire for re-election. In fact, he is consumed in the ambition, so to say, and not taking any chance on it. The urge is even verging on desperation. Apart from cajoling and coercing state governors and other elected officials to defect from their political parties to the All Progressives Congress (APC), to boost his chances of re-election, Tinubu is taking the drive to non-politicians. Everything is being put in the mix.
If you were shocked at the President inaugurating a 30-kilometre portion of the 750-kilometre Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and several others to mark his second year in office, it is in line with the urge to keep the project aflame. The same spirit of animation manifests in the President throwing the doors to his office and home open to all manner of visitors lately. He is visibly on heat, literally speaking. It is the nature of Nigerian politicians seeking election or re-election to go to any length for their quest but when they succeed, every promise, every initiative, no matter how lofty, is kept in breach. William Shakespeare mirrored them in his great work, Julius Caesar; “lowliness is young ambition’s ladder, whereto the climber upward turns his face; But when he once attains the upmost round, he then unto the ladder turns his back, looks in the clouds, scorning the base degrees by which he did ascend”. That is precisely what Tinubu is doing.
To be sure, the President is allowed by the Constitution to go for another term, if he desires and is returned by the voters. That is democracy. There is nothing untoward about it. But there is a caveat, even if not expressly stated. Re-election is a referendum on the performance scorecard of an office holder. It is an occasion for voters to look at the work profile of the person seeking to be returned and ask if his mandate deserves renewal.
The basic consideration here is a determination on how the electorate have fared under the office holder. In our peculiar instance, it is about security, standard of living, fairness in programmes and policies and general wellbeing of the country. If these are to serve as standards for assessing Tinubu for another term, he does not stand enough chance. And he knows it. Under him, Nigerians have literally passed through hell fire. With rising incidences of insecurity in virtually all parts of the country, acute hunger among the citizens and undisguised inclination towards his South West region of birth in policies and programmes, Tinubu has left the country more divided than he inherited it in 2023.
With the glaring indices of failure in almost all aspects of governance, it is not surprising that the President is deploying strategies, including the unconventional, to remain relevant in 2027. In fact, if he has his way, there won’t be any other candidate on the ballot for the election. That can explain the unconscionable agenda by the presidency in planting spoilers in leading opposition political parties so as to keep them perpetually in disarray before the contest. That is the ignoble role the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike is playing in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). In Labour Party (LP), former national chairman, Julius Abure, and Lamidi Apapa are doing the odd job. The proxies are unrelenting and seem to be having their ways, hence, neither the PDP nor the LP as things are, can effectively stand for the 2027 polls.
That is why the coalition by the opposition political leaders must not fail. None of the parties in opposition can stand alone for the race and emerge victorious. Pooling their resources and support bases will be the clincher, especially as the arrowheads of the movement are of means and networks. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, coming from the PDP, has enormous experience in politics and relevant contacts. In his days as President Olusegun Obasanjo’s deputy, it was obvious that Atiku was the stabilising voice in the administration. His foibles are there, no doubt, his shortcomings, obvious. But he has a towering influence that cannot be dismissed in any part of the country. Since his forceful emergence on the national scene in the 1993 Social Democratic Party (SDP) convention in Jos, Plateau State, where he came third to MKO Abiola and Babagana Kingibe, Atiku has remained a force to reckon with in the nation’s politics. In the 2023 election, he was able to prove that he still had some fire to spit.
Peter Obi of LP has similar clout, if not more, especially among the youths and vulnerable Nigerians itching for change. His entry into the last presidential election changed the narrative and trajectory in political campaigns. For the first time in the contemporary dispensation, Nigerians were presented with issue-based campaigns, devoid of name calling and inuendoes.
Apart from serving as Kaduna State governor and FCT Minister, Nasir el-Rufai had largely operated in the background or as audacious foot soldier. Some accuse him of fleeting loyalty and self-centredness. But one thing that cannot be taken away from him is courage in going for a chosen cause. He can also be maverick and unconventional. Tinubu, in fact, owes it to El-Rufai for galvanizing the support of northern governors to his support in 2023. Former Transport Minister, Rotimi Amaechi, has similar record of boldness and capacity for engagements.
Congregation of these men at forums and discussing 2027, is already sending shivers down the president’s spine. Forget about the bold face by the presidency and the APC in dismissing them as displaced politicians, the fact remains that Tinubu is substantially rattled. In a free and fair election today, it is doubtful if he can record winning even in his South West region. It is that bad! That accounts for the relentless efforts in courting and coercing the governors and other elected officials to cross over to the APC. Another strategy is mobilisation of public opinion against key figures in the coalition to dismiss them as men lacking in scruples. Of course, none among them is a saint, same as Tinubu. They have all failed in many instances. But at the degree of their individual and collateral harm on the country, all of them put together, do not come close to the stress and pains caused Nigerians in the two years of the Tinubu presidency. Allowing the suffering and uncertainties to continue after 2027, will be too hard for the nation.