The economy of the South-East region has reportedly been in a tailspin since the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) commenced the enforcement of its Monday sit-at-home order four years ago. A new report by SBM Intelligence has revealed that the region lost N7.6trillion from 2021-2025 as a result of the weekly sit-at-home order by the self-determination group. In the report titled, “Four Years of Economic Disruption,” SBM Intelligence stated how what started as a non-violent and symbolic protest to demand the freedom of IPOB leader, Nnamdi Kanu, later became a protracted economic, security and humanitarian crisis, with devastating consequences.
A breakdown of the N7.6trillion loss in revenue within the period under review showed that about N4.6trillion was incurred annually by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) that form the economic backbone of the region. Transport companies reportedly lost between N10billion and N13billion every Monday, while total economic activities were either disrupted or completely shutdown. The amount lost by transport companies represents N800billion annually, and over N3.6trillion over the last four years.
These losses, according to the report, stemmed mainly from widespread market closures that disrupted business supply chains, and the ability of business owners to operate effectively in the region. The disruption of business activities every Monday sit-at-home is very evident in both rural and urban areas, especially in commercial hubs such as Onitsha, Nnewi, Aba, among others, resulting in massive failed transactions and financial strains for traders and consumers alike.
No fewer than 776 people reportedly died within the four-year period. About 332 violent attacks that led to the destruction of property and infrastructure were recorded. Despite measures put in place by the federal government and South-East governors to bring normalcy to the region, the weekly sit-at-home order is still enforced by groups sympathetic to the self-determination cause. Even when IPOB leadership had paused the order, some elements within its fold or splinter groups still enforce it with utter vehemence and violence.
There is no doubt that the enforcement of the weekly holiday has adversely affected the South-East economy and made the zone unattractive to local and foreign investors. Beyond the SMB Intelligence report, other reports have predicted the looming collapse of the South-East economy if urgent steps are not taken to halt the drift. Prior to the Monday sit-at-home order, the South-East was known for its vibrant and active economy. Its agriculture, manufacturing and other sectors contribute significantly to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The zone used to record the largest diaspora remittance in the country.
A recent survey sponsored by the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR) revealed that between August 2021 and December 2022, South-East economy lost N5.32trillion. The amount could be higher when all the direct and indirect costs of the sit-at-home order are included. Also, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that within the past four years, the South-East has emerged as one of the least in Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), recording all-time IGR of N53billion in 2021. According to the statistics, none of the South-East states met its projected revenue target within the period. For instance, Anambra State that used to post the highest IGR only realised N12.77billion, a paltry 27 per cent of projected revenue.
Others achieved less than 15 per cent. Abia realised N7.5billion, Enugu (N14billion), Imo (N9.9billion), and Ebonyi(N7.7billion). NBS data also showed that out of the $456.7billion that Nigeria recorded as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from 2020-2023, the South-East attracted only 6 per cent as a result of the sit-at-home crisis. Within the period, investment profile for the region totaled $263.8 million, while capital importation inflow stood at all-time high of $20.29billion. Many businesses in the zone have relocated to other parts of the country. This has reflected in the latest Value Added Tax (VAT) generated from the zone.
Between July 2023 and 2024, Anambra State was ranked the “headquarters of ransom payments for kidnapping”, after victims of kidnappers reportedly paid N350million as ransom. This is far more than that of Rivers State with ransom payments of N67million. Prior to the sit-at-home order, South-East was ranked the “best-performing” zone in the country in the West African Examination Council (WAEC) and the National Examination Council (NECO) examination results.
Unfortunately, the sit-at-home order has disrupted the region’s school calendar due to the enforced holidays. The South-East governors should dialogue with President Bola Tinubu on how to bring normalcy to the troubled region. Of paramount importance is the immediate release of Nnamdi Kanu. His apparent perpetual incarceration and trial will ruin the South-East economy.