2027: Why coalition against Tinubu will fail –Osita Okechukwu, APC chieftain

•It’s wrong for president not to campaign in all states •I don’t believe Obi will renege on his one-term pledge if he becomes president

A former Director-General of The Voice of Nigeria (VON) and top chieftain of the All Progressives Congress, Mr. Osita Okechukwu has declared that the coalition being put together by some members of the opposition political parties to challenge President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general elections will fail.

Okechukwu told TUNDE THOMAS that lack of unity, personal ambitions ,and greed by some powerful members of the  group will lead to the collapse of  the coalition.

He also spoke on other national issues

Some political parties and groups are floating the idea of fielding one candidate to challenge President Tinubu in the 2027 general elections. What’s your reaction to that?

To be honest with you it is a patriotic move, by all intentions and purposes, though one would like my great party All Progressives Congress (APC) to triumph. Patriotic in the sense that the zenith of all successful liberal democracies is a scenario where under multiparty system two political parties prevail. Two parties prevail in such a manner that at each cycle of election, party A and in other election, party B wins. This scenario gives room for popular participation, free and fair election and most importantly reinforces the confidence of the electorate that they are the determinants of results of every election. This confidence enabler is consolidated by two strong parties in multiparty system.

To institute this zenith of democracy in our dear country was what motivated us to shed our names, manifesto, logo, slogan and personal ambition to form the merger of all opposition political parties, which in July 2013 birthed All Progressives Congress. If you remember immediately APC was registered the political atmosphere was electrified and confidence was restored in the electorate that were intimidated by the mantra of members of our sister political party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), that they will rule uninterrupted for 60 years. That’s why months before the 2015 presidential election Nigerians on both sides of PDP and APC divide were confident of victory.

As a member of the Merger Committee, how did you achieve this rare feat?

To be sincere, we owe much thanks to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the current president. We owe him for subordinating or better strategically deferring his personal ambition to be president in 2015. He strategically surveyed the environment and recognised Buhari’s 12 million Vote-Bank in three successive elections and postponed his bid. I remember when we converged at Chief Tom Ikimi’s house at Maitama Abuja and our delegation, the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) announced that we came here to deal with the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) led by Tinubu. In the evening, he (Tinubu) came and had meeting with Buhari and assured him that he was not running and that he would support him to the end. He further pointed out that he would not only supplement his Vote-Bank, but that he will give it national spread. This is what we call sacrifice and  this is what the opposition is lacking today. They have a big elephant in the room, who is preoccupied only with personal ambition to become president.

Why do you prefer two dominant political parties?

It is an antidote to dictatorship and unintended kingship, for presidential power is enormous compared to a parliamentary system. Therefore, under a multiparty system, there must be two dominant parties for the fine tenets of democracy to thrive well. A lot of people up to date still hold the view that America has only two political parties – Democrats and Republicans, capital no. They have up to nine political parties, but Democrats and Republicans prevail.

One of the greatest achievements of our great party, the APC, was the ten years we rode on the crest of the uncommon zenith of democracy, where PDP and APC prevailed, a glorious stage where Nigeria was between 2013-2023, celebrating that democracy had arrived.

So what has happened between then and now?

Regrettably, the PDP, which could have remained strong, vibrant, or even defeated us in the 2023 general elections, was atrophied by unpatriotic elements who breached the zoning convention, and unfortunately, the same elements are at it again.

From my feelers, they are frustrating the G100 led by my friend Malam Salihu Lukman. The G100 had good intentions to do us all proud, but for the power-mongering appetite of elements who resisted the unity of the opposition parties, they may stumble. Some of us strongly hold the view that the G100 convened by Malam Salihu Mohammed Lukman, with 99 other notables like Professor Pat Utomi, is the most appropriate platform for harmonious opposition parties, but their ego-prone presidential aspirants will frustrate the group because of their personal ambitions.

Are you saying that the coalition will not work?

They have already stumbled, and what happened to PDP in 2023 may happen to them. Therefore, I am not only doubtful, but I will also bet my cards that they may fail. They are not united.  Some of them can’t forgo personal interests for national interests. As the popular saying goes, the morning forecasts the weather of the day; signs of cracks are already manifesting within their ranks. My cursory analysis shows that they seem to be glossing over the guardrails of the 4th Republic and may end up rewarding my great party, APC. The opposition consists of some unpatriotic elements that destabilised our sister political party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

How would you react to the claims by some apologists of  President Tinubu and the present administration that the present economic hardship facing  Nigerians, and some other problems like the festering insecurity, were as a result of bad leadership by the previous administrations, especially the Buhari administration?

Permit me to state that Mr President didn’t mention Buhari in his Kaduna speech or at any other time as being responsible for the economic challenges facing Nigeria. He has always maintained that he inherited the plus and minus from him. However, broadly speaking, President Muhammadu Buhari, of blessed memory, was among President Tinubu’s ardent supporters. Nigerians should ignore the so-called apologists of the present administration trying to portray Buhari in a bad light. The historical fact that they cannot erase is that even as military Head of State, Buhari understood the good sides of the neoliberal economic policy and also the toxic side.

That’s why he opposed the removal of the fuel subsidy, the floating of the Naira, and he vigorously embarked on the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP) and Social Investment Programme. Nobody can deny the fact that the billions he pumped into ABP had measurable results. Throughout his administration, the issue of rice importation was scarce and not as huge as it is today, and the ABP cannot be rated as a neoliberal economic policy. He abhors the aspect of nebulous economic policy that expressly states that government has no business in business. He knew that we have no strong private sector to shoulder the weight that neoliberal economic policy entrusted to a more or less non-existent private sector in Nigeria.

Yes, Buhari has his errors; however, he was a democratic convert who observed the fundamental objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy, which state that the primary purpose of government is to provide security and welfare.

But he removed the fuel subsidy in the budget before his exit in May 2023?

This argument is puerile, though I have heard such a lame excuse, as if a new president has no right to present a supplementary budget. What I am saying is that the economic hardship was a seed sowed 40 years ago, to be exact, in 1986, when General Babaginda introduced the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP).

The history of neoliberal economic policy has exhibited more of its toxic side than the good side in the Third World. The policy is mostly trumpeted by Bretton Woods institutions, and these are the IMF and the World Bank.  This policy failed in most Third World countries like Nigeria, Zambia, and Argentina, to name but a few. In fact, some scholars classify it as neo-imperialism. To be frank, President Tinubu, like other presidents, means well, but good intentions sometimes do not germinate good outcomes without basic positive economic indicators. Just like you cannot renew hope when the economic indicators that propel the dividends of democracy and good governance are hopeless.

Some Nigerians are saying that APC and President Bola Tinubu have not only failed Nigerians but that, under President Tinubu and the APC, Nigeria has become the poverty capital of the world, and therefore that President Tinubu doesn’t deserve a second term in office. What’s your take on this?

President Tinubu means well for Nigeria. In a recent address he delivered at the Nigeria Economic Summit, he said, and I quote him, “Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, we came to rewrite the story of a nation that has performed below its potential for far too long.

“But there is no shortcut to economic growth. This is why we began with a difficult reset. For us, rescuing the economy means rescuing livelihoods and transforming the fortunes of young job seekers, farmers, manufacturers, entrepreneurs and innovators.

“We cannot harness the immense opportunities offered by our growing population without first stabilising the economy. We must also create the conditions for the public and private sectors to invest, expand and generate productive employment. “These reforms are restoring confidence, strengthening our economic foundations and laying the groundwork for sustainable growth.”

I pray that in his second term he rejigs the neoliberal economic policy to accommodate the poor. For no matter how sterling the macroeconomic indicators are, they mean nothing if the microeconomic indicators are not favourable to the greatest number of Nigerians. That’s why I am more or less amused when His Excellency Atiku Abubakar broadcasts his return of fuel subsidy mantra, in the absence of hard facts on where the money is coming from. It is a campaign stunt meant to hoodwink the masses, who float with spin doctors. Otherwise is he is not aware that we share the oil proceeds with the International Oil Companies (IOC); a scenario where we do not earn more than 60 per cent in onshore platforms and less than 30 per cent in offshore platforms.

As a known Buharist, and somebody who was a vital part of Buhari’s government, what’s your candid assessment of Buhari’s government?

As I said earlier, Buhari was Mai Gasikiya, man of the people, as exemplified by his resistance to the removal of the fuel subsidy, floatation of the Naira, and the patriotic zeal to embark on ABP, 2nd Niger Bridge, and Standard Gauge Railways. He had his pluses and minuses like us all. He had two major impediments: poor oil prices when he came on board. In fact, a barrel was below $40 in 2015. Secondly, illness distracted him and more or less gave undue room for some elements in our fold to run amok.

Many Nigerians are expressing fear of abuse of the State Police by some state governors. What’s your view on that?

I’m one of those who had such fears because of the attitude of some of our  governors who behave like Emperors. However necessity, as the sage says, is the mother of invention. Therefore in view of the incessant and palpable insecurity in all the nooks and crannies of our dear country, let the State Police be. Let’s all pray that it will serve as new vista in curbing insecurity and returning peace. Imagine the havoc we go through when farmers in the food basket zones of our dear country do not go to farm. To compound the matter is that some who go to farm had to pay fines to bandits, thus cultivating culture of bandit economy.

Some Nigerians have expressed reservations that the president might not be campaigning in all the states. What’s your take on this?

I totally disagree with Mr President. For this is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR’s campaign. It is first and foremost his campaign before our own as APC members. What one frown at is the insinuation that he may have taken that decision that maybe he is sick .But there is a saying in my place that on the eve of Harmattan season some elders will be pointing at old dry trees and forecasting that such trees may not survive the harmattan. But it may turn out that the trees which will fall maybe younger trees. Our live belongs to Almighty Allah, not to speculation.

How would you rate the chance of the two leading presidential candidates, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Mr Peter Obi against President Tinubu in the 2027 general elections?

My careful analysis makes me predict that Nigeria may witness the first presidential election run-off in the annals of our dear country. What one cannot predict is the two that will make the run-off list. Many members of my great party, the APC may not be happy with my prediction but I wish that we win fairly and seamlessly at first ballot.

Can you share with us the factors that made you predict of run-off?

Very nice and germane question. One ethnicity, two ethnicity and three ethnicity. Atiku’s disobedience to zoning convention wittingly or unwittingly has reversed the gains made by zoning convention. Take for instance in 1999 when Chiefs Olusegun Obasanjo and Olu Falae, in 2007 Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Muhammadu Buhari, and in 2019 Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar, were contesting, ethno-religious card was not on the table. In 2027 the main factor will be ethno-religious card, especially when Atiku’s minders are ignobly marketing him as northern presidential candidate. If it was only two candidates from the south, as envisaged by presidential power rotation, then campaign of issues could have topped the agenda.

What’s your view of the announcement by Mr. Peter Obi that he would serve only one term if elected into office?

Methinks Obi knows the import of unity, justice and fairness in our polarised nation. It is the only option left for a believer in the urgent need and imperative of cultivating sense of belonging and inclusiveness. On those who do not believe him, I laugh because if the north today decides to vote for him on this premise and he reneges when he gets to power, will he not want to be voted for in 2031? I don’t think he will renege; those who know him well will vouch for his piety. For my people, who are afraid he will reduce their turn, maybe they don’t know Obi’s motive to showcase that Nigeria is possible. A possible Nigeria can be demonstrated in four years, plus a capable Vice President; I don’t have any doubts about that.

Why do you think the presidency has eluded the South East since 1999, and how do you think the South-East geopolitical zone can have it?

I believe that God’s time is the best; if it is God’s will, Obi is in the race today. For instance, in 1999, we had every opportunity when Dr Ogbonnaya Onu won the defunct All Peoples Party (APP)’s presidential ticket at Kaduna, and Dr Alex Ekwueme was on the verge of clinching the PDP ticket at Jos, when General Abdulsalam dispatched his men to plead with them to forego their bid on the premise of the rotation convention, which they wanted to start from the South-West consequent upon the June 12 annulment of Chief MKO Abiola’s victory. I was a witness when the delegation visited Ekwueme at Railway Guest House, Jos, headquarters of his campaign team. Opinion was divided among his supporters, and Ekwueme agreed with Abdulsalam, saying that the democracy he fought hard for cannot be scuttled because of his personal ambition to be president.

What’s your advice to INEC, political parties, security agencies and other stakeholders on the  2027 general elections?

My candid advice is that democracy is a time bomb; all of us should handle it with utmost care. For INEC, the lives and future of over 200 million Nigerians are in their hands. My appeal to them is that they should be very careful. They should remain an impartial arbiter.