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Religion and ethnicity, rather than the economy or other campaign issues, may prove the decisive forces in determining who wins the 2027 presidential election, the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng has projected.
The group, an analytical unit led by the publisher of Politico.ng, Lai Omotola, said economic conditions and other campaign issues would play lesser roles in determining the winner of the presidential contest.
Presenting its October electoral map, PIG said the projection was based on prevailing political realities and should not be interpreted as the final outcome of the 2027 election.
It explained that its monthly electoral map was designed to enable political parties to identify areas of strength and weakness, adding that the projection represented what the outcome could be if the election were held in the month under review.
The group said its September projection had generated intense debate among political actors and observers, stressing that its latest assessment took into account major political developments recorded across the country in September.
According to PIG, the denial of entry into Benue State to former Anambra State governor and National Democratic Congress presidential candidate, Peter Obi; the controversy over President Bola Tinubu’s working vacation and allegations of presidential absenteeism, as well as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s renewed campaign on fuel subsidy, were among the developments that shaped the October projection.
It also cited the increasing mobilisation by political parties through rallies and other campaign activities.
“APC seems to be mobilising more, followed by NDC, but the NDC hasn’t been able to form a Presidential Campaign Council, while ADC has formed a Presidential Campaign Council, but major campaigns are yet to be seen from the party,” the group said. PIG further identified the emerging confrontation between the All Progressives Congress (APC) governors and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, as another political development that could have implications for the 2027 contest.
