2027 presidential polls: Beyond referendum on Tinubu administration

By Chekwube Nzomiwu

Campaigns for the 2027 general elections in Nigeria will soon commence, starting with the Presidential and National Assembly campaigns. The ruling party, the All Progressive Congress (APC) will be campaigning for the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term in office.

The 1999 Constitution of Nigeria (as amended) allows an incumbent serving a four year tenure, to contest for a second term. In total, the constitution permits a maximum tenure of eight years for the President.

Besides Tinubu, 18 other candidates are in the 2027 presidential race. Notable among them are Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Governor of Oyo State, Seyi Makinde of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) and Donald Duke of Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).

Although political analysts generally view the forthcoming presidential election as a referendum on Tinubu’s government, I think it is going to be a referendum on the opposition as well. For the sake of those who are not familiar with the term “referendum,” it is simply a direct vote by the electorate on a proposal, law or political issue.

Two outcomes are expected from the January 16, 2027 presidential polls. It is either eligible voters in Nigeria vote for Tinubu to continue in office for another four years or they elect one of the other 18 presidential candidates to take over the mantle of leadership from him on May 29, 2027. That is if Nigerians are availed of a free and fair atmosphere to exercise their franchise.

The election is seen as a referendum on Tinubu’s government because “ceteris paribus” (all other things being equal), the peoples opinion about the government will decide the fate of the President. If they think the government has done well, they will surely vote for him to continue. If they think otherwise, they will elect a new President.

In deciding Tinubu’s fate, Nigerians will no doubt look at his achievements in office and place them side by side with the promises he made while campaigning for the presidency. Tinubu campaigned in 2023 with the mantra of “Renewed Hope Agenda,” described as a strategic policy framework for 2023-2027.

This policy according to the President and his party, was designed to reform Nigeria’s economy, enhance security and improve living standard through eight core pillars. The priority areas include economic reforms, national security, food security, natural resource development, infrastructure expansion, human capital development, innovation (including digital economy growth), industrialisation and good governance.

In spite of all the odds against Tinubu during the 2023 presidential election, such as significant concern over his health, APC’s poor security and economic scorecard under the Muhammadu Buhari administration, gaffes during the campaign and the controversy surrounding his same-faith (Muslim-Muslim) ticket , the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared him as the winner, amid the dust raised by his main opponents over the glitches that marred the upload of the results of the election to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IREV). The rest is history.

Today, President Tinubu thinks that his government has done so well, contrary to the opinion of his critics, such as the Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria, who in a recent meeting with him, expressed serious concern over worsening economic hardship, rising insecurity, and democratic challenges. His appointees and other members of APC never hesitate to pounce on every opportunity in the media to highlight the achievements of the current administration across various sectors, especially the economy, infrastructure, education and security.

Often highlighted achievements of the current government include the removal of fuel subsidy, unification of the exchange rate, tighter fiscal policies and establishment of new tax architecture. Others are the attraction of billions in fresh foreign investment, the growth of the stock market, security/ military upgrades, and ongoing construction of Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road and Sokoto Badagry Highway.

Equally listed among the government’s achievements are the establishment of the National Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) and creation of regional development commissions. While NELFUND was established to provide zero-interest loans for higher education, the regional commissions were created to fast-track local infrastructure and economic growth.

All these touted achievements notwithstanding, the general feeling outside the government circle and ruling party, is that the Tinubu government failed in its primary duty of ensuring the security and welfare of the citizens. Since the government came to power, poverty and hardship have increased significantly in the country.

Millions of Nigerians face high food inflation and severe hunger. For the first time in the history of Nigeria, a hunger protest rocked different parts of the country a few weeks after the one year anniversary of the current administration. International partners, such as the World Bank see the “painful economic reforms” as bold and necessary for economic stability and national growth, but equally note that the reforms have severely strained everyday citizens, with an estimated 139 million of them living in poverty.

The announcement of the removal of fuel subsidy by President Tinubu on the day of his inauguration on May 29, 2023, caused transportation and food prices to skyrocket. While the federal government maintains that the removal of subsidy has increased the revenue of the states and local governments, the standard of living of Nigerians continue to worsen.

Similarly, the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market weakened the Naira, making imported goods much more expensive. Since Nigerians rely mainly on imports, the high costs crushed their purchasing power severely.

As a result of the severe currency devaluation, several prominent multi-national companies and foreign investments, either scaled down or left Nigeria, citing harsh economic conditions, including foreign exchange shortages and high operating costs. For instance, Procter and Gamble (P&G) and GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Nigeria (GSK closed manufacturing operations in Nigeria in December 2023. GSK also closed its commercial operations and transitioned instead to a third party distribution model for its consumer brands and medicine.

The exit of these companies and many others caused an astronomical increase in the cost of drugs. Persons living with chronic diseases like diabetes, cancer and arthritis were the most hit. Because of the exodus of companies from Nigeria, countless number of jobs were lost, thus escalating the already terribly bad unemployment situation in the country. It appeared that the government deliberately allowed the average Nigerian on the street to bear the burden of the reforms, rather than provide a buffer, especially for the vulnerable among them.

In spite of assurances by President Tinubu that the pains of the reforms were temporal, more than three years after he came to power, Nigerians have not seen any serious indication that their pains will abate soon.Insecurity remains a severe and complex national challenge marked by persistent kidnappings, banditry and violent attacks. Violent attacks continue to go on, especially in rural communities. The attacks force farmers to abandon their farms, thus heightening fears of further escalation of food insecurity.

Nigerians now avoid travelling on highways, out of fear of being kidnapped, thus hampering the movement of goods and services. Many rural communities, especially in northern Nigeria, have been deserted as a result of violent attacks. The fleeing residents of these communities are now living in camps for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). According to the International Organisation on Migration (IOM), over 104 IDP camps exist across Nigeria.

Those residing in the urban areas are not spared. They are faced by rising cost of energy, healthcare, education, electricity, rents, transportation, food, cooking gas and other basic necessities of life. Insecurity is also endemic in many urban centres in Nigeria.

Although the government point at its successful achievement of macroeconomic stability, many families feel that the administration has not eased the heavy financial pressure on households and low-income earners. Even as the government defends its aggressive reforms as necessary for long-term economic growth, President Tinubu has faced public criticism for failing to meet the economic expectations of Nigeria.

Less than five months to the general election, the public sentiments appear to be heavily titled against the Tinubu administration. Many analysts have said that his government failed in its primary duty of ensuring security and welfare of the citizens.

However, the opposition should not assume that the coast is clear for them because all attention will be focused on the incumbent during the election. Opposition parties themselves are widely assessed by political observers of falling short of public expectations ahead of the 2027 general elections. Civil society organisations in Nigeria accuse the opposition of not being robust or organised enough to effectively challenge the ruling party.

Many of the opposition parties are either fragmented or bogged down by persistent leadership tussles and factional disputes. Many of them have failed to maintain a clear singular leadership structure. If they cannot manage their affairs, how can they conduct the affairs of large heterogeneous country like Nigeria?

Needless to say that the ruling party cannot be totally exonerated from the crises in the ranks of the opposition parties. Recently, the Igbo Leaders of Thought, a prominent assembly of Southeastern Nigerian intellectual, traditional rulers and stakeholders, expressed concern over the role played by state institutions, including INEC and the courts in the crises in the opposition parties.

The opposition parties cannot also exonerate themselves from the crises within their ranks. Many of them, in conducting their affairs, subvert the party constitution. They have also not been able to rein in moles among them, who are working, either overtly or covertly for the ruling party. These moles are the persons often used to instigate division within the opposition parties.

Individual ambitions and competing personal interests often outweigh the drive for a unified national movement in the opposition through a broad alliance of opposition figures, such as the botched ADC coalition. The only time the opposition came together in this Fourth Republic, they ousted the ruling party. That was in 2015 when Muhammadu Buhari of the APC, then a merger of some existing opposition parties, defeated the sitting President, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of PDP. Till date, PDP has not recovered from that defeat.

In 2023, the Labour Party (LP) emerged as a Third Force, but it turned out ‘a flash in the pan.” The success of LP has since been diminished by prolonged intra-party crisis, which factionalised the party and kept party leaders in and out of courts, including the Supreme Court, Nigeria’s apex court.

In conclusion, I posit that the 2027 election is not a referendum on Tinubu alone. In my opinion, it is a referendum on the opposition also. I do not intend to preempt the outcome of the election. The decision is for Nigerians to make. I can only appeal to Nigerian authorities to grant the electorate a free and fair atmosphere to choose our next President, using their votes.

• Dr Nzomiwu (MNIPR) is a media and communication scholar, journalist and public affairs analyst. He writes via [email protected]