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• Zamfara, Borno, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Plateau emerge as flashpoints
From Fred Itua, Abuja
The National Peace Accord signed by presidential candidates and political party leaders ahead of the 2027 general elections is facing an early test, with fresh data showing that 2,510 election-related security incidents were recorded across the country in just 14 months.
The figures, disclosed barely a day after the accord was signed in Abuja, have heightened concerns over whether political pledges alone can guarantee peaceful elections in states already grappling with banditry, terrorism, kidnapping and communal violence.
The accord, signed on Tuesday at the International Conference Centre, Abuja, under the auspices of the National Peace Committee (NPC) and The Kukah Centre, commits political parties and candidates to peaceful, issue-based campaigns ahead of the 2027 elections.
The presidential and National Assembly elections are scheduled for January 16, 2027, while governorship and state assembly elections are slated for February 6.
But data presented at the ceremony painted a more troubling picture of the security environment in which the campaigns will unfold.
Project Manager of the National Peace Committee at The Kukah Centre, Asabe Ndaye, said the committee’s Election Security Information Hub recorded 2,510 security incidents linked to elections between June 2025 and August 2026.
The incidents were recorded across at least 70 off-cycle elections, bye-elections and reruns monitored since 2023.
Ndaye identified Zamfara, Borno, Kaduna, Niger, Benue and Plateau among states worst affected, with banditry, kidnapping and terrorism posing continuing threats to electoral activities.
The figures suggest that insecurity is not merely a potential threat to the 2027 elections but an existing challenge that could undermine campaigns, voter mobilisation and the conduct of polls in vulnerable communities.
Peace pledge meets hard security reality
The accord seeks to curb election violence by committing candidates and parties to renounce hate speech, personal attacks, incitement and other inflammatory conduct.
However, security concerns in several parts of the country extend beyond the control of political actors who signed the document.
In communities affected by banditry, insurgency and communal conflicts, voters face threats from armed groups that are not bound by the commitments contained in the accord.
The concern is reinforced by the experience of the 2023 general elections, which were also preceded by a peace accord but were nevertheless followed by more than 100 election-related deaths, according to some estimates.
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There were also widespread reports of voter intimidation in states including Lagos, Rivers, Kano, Kaduna and Akwa Ibom.
In Etim Ekpo, Akwa Ibom State, thugs armed with axes and bottles reportedly attacked election officials and voters during a keenly contested senatorial election. Despite arrests at the time, the case has not resulted in prosecution, according to the report.
The unresolved case highlights concerns about weak accountability for election-related violence, which analysts say could embolden perpetrators ahead of the 2027 polls.
Absence of Atiku, Tinubu raises questions
The credibility of the accord has also come under scrutiny following the absence of some major political figures from Tuesday’s ceremony.
President Bola Tinubu did not attend personally and was represented by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and his African Democratic Congress (ADC) also stayed away from the event.
The absence of two prominent political figures from a ceremony designed to establish the tone for the 2027 campaign has raised questions about the extent to which the commitments can secure universal political buy-in.
Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Joash Amupitan, said the timing of the accord was deliberate, coming a day before the official commencement of campaigns.
He said it was intended to establish ethical boundaries for political actors before nationwide campaigns commenced.
But legal practitioner Victor Giwa said the effectiveness of the accord would ultimately depend on developments in the states identified as security flashpoints.
“Unless the enthusiasm behind Tuesday’s ceremony is matched by a visible and sustained security response in the states already flagged as high risk, the accord risks being remembered less as a turning point for peaceful elections and more as a symbolic gesture overtaken, within days, by the very insecurity it was signed to guard against,” he said.
“For voters in Zamfara, Borno, Kaduna, Niger, Benue and Plateau in particular, what happens on the ground between now and February 2027 will matter far more than what was signed in Abuja this week.”
Security analysts have similarly argued that peace accords address only one dimension of electoral violence — the conduct and rhetoric of political actors — while leaving deeper security challenges largely unresolved.
They said the success of the 2027 electoral process would require sustained deployment of security personnel, improved intelligence gathering and firm prosecution of individuals who commit or sponsor election-related violence.
With 2,510 security incidents already recorded in 14 months, the challenge for political parties, security agencies and electoral authorities is now to ensure that the Peace Accord does not remain a declaration on paper while insecurity determines who can campaign, vote and participate in the 2027 elections.
