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Political analyst Mahmud Jega has criticised the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and opposition parties over what he described as poor preparation for the 2027 general elections, warning that campaign activities are unfolding far later than in previous election cycles.
Jega made the assessment during an interview on Arise News on Monday, noting that parties were yet to organise major rallies despite being less than three months away from the polls.
He said even the APC, which controls the Federal Government, had only recently inaugurated its presidential campaign council and was still preparing to begin major campaign activities.
“This year’s campaign is late, It is unfolding much later than all previous presidential campaigns that we have had in fact, in the last 40 to 50 years.
We are now less than three months to the election, and the parties are still struggling. Even the APC, it’s only last week that they inaugurated their council, and also it will be another 10 days after that before they hold. And then there are all kinds of problems,” Jega said.
He also questioned the party’s campaign timetable, which he said indicated that President Bola Tinubu would not appear at campaign events in 24 of the country’s 36 states.
“The opposition parties, whether they were waiting to see what the ruling party will do, but they’re taking quite, quite late. They have not inaugurated their campaign councils, not to talk of to start the most visible campaign issues, which is the rallies,” he added.
Jega said the ruling party and its opponents were falling behind schedule, raising concerns about their readiness for the election.
“And from all indications, all the parties, the ruling and the opposition, they are way behind schedule. Really, there is a serious lack of preparedness in this year’s election cycle,” he said.
The analyst also examined the APC’s decision to begin its presidential campaign in Katsina State, suggesting that the choice was linked to the party’s political challenges in northern Nigeria.
He said the removal of petrol subsidy and the floating of the naira had contributed to inflation and worsened living conditions, while insecurity, banditry, insurgency and kidnapping remained major concerns across parts of the North.
Jega also pointed to complaints about the distribution of federal projects and political appointments, saying the APC leadership was aware of the challenges and appeared to be seeking ways to rebuild support in the region.
“This time, because of many things the government did as well as the things it didn’t do the things it did include the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira, which has led to a lot of inflation and has seriously, adversely affected people’s living conditions and in the case of the north, there is also the special security problem, the insurgency, and the banditry, and the kidnapping. And the added political one that people are saying that there is disproportionate allocation of projects and appointments and all that,” he said.
“The APC leaders are aware of that. If you choose Katsina, which is the traditional political capital of the North to launch your campaign. So they said to start the rallies in Katsina and end in Lagos, yes, it sounds quite strategic, but probably the main reason is how do we now overcome this northern problem that APC seems to have now.”
On the factors likely to determine the presidential election, Jega said parties should pay attention not only to states they win but also to those where they finish second or third, arguing that these positions could prove important when the final votes are tallied.
“Winning the election overall is not directly a factor of how many states you won outright,” he said.
“As I once argued, it is very important not only the states that you win outright, but the states where you came second and third. It’s very important because in the end, we are going to put it together. So, it’s important not only saying you win outright, but also where you come second, it’s important.”
Jega also discussed the implications of a court ruling against overseas chapters of political parties, saying the decision could affect the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), particularly because of the diaspora support associated with the political movement behind Peter Obi.
He said Nigerians living abroad had played an important role in fundraising and mobilisation, adding that contributions from supporters overseas could provide significant financial support to political campaigns.
“NDC looks like it would be the party most affected by that decision. Why? Because the Obi movement, even back from 2022-2023, was largely had huge backing by diaspora Nigerians.
And that was important, especially probably for fundraising purposes, because Nigerians living abroad, there are so many, and in some cases, fairly quite well-to-do, and if they make donations in foreign currency, it will help a lot,” he said.
However, Jega maintained that the ruling would not prevent Nigerians abroad from supporting political candidates, even without formally recognised party chapters in their countries of residence.
“No, it will not stop them, because they have a stake and a deep interest in what happens inside Nigeria. Some of them plan to come back, some may not come back, but they will always be interested in what happens in Nigeria.
And as I said, practically speaking, the fact that you don’t have a legally recognized party chapter in the UK or in the US does not stop your supporters from doing many things. They can be supporters without being chapters,” he said.
