Since May 29, 2023 when he handed the reins of power in Kaduna state to Senator Uba Sani, and after he was dropped, by the Senate of the Federal Republic, from list of nominees confirmed for appointment as ministers by President Bola Tinubu, Mallam Nasiru el-Rufai has remained out of public glare except for some time in December 2023 he travelled to Ogun state to be crowned as the Baba Gboniyi of Ijebuland by the Awujale of Ijebu, Oba Sikiru Adetona. That event took place precisely on December 16, 2023.
Before that on June 7, while addressing a group of Muslim clerics in Kaduna after his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), was declared the winner of the governorship election, the former governor had made comments that were seen as pitching the two dominant faiths in the state against each other. In essence, the comment, considered controversial, was one in which he explained his preference for the Muslim-Muslim ticket in the governance of Kaduna state against the tradition of pairing members of both faiths in the leadership of the state. He openly stated that “what we wanted to prove to people, and thank God in the last four years, we’ve vindicated ourselves and proved that a government that has a Muslim as governor, a Muslim as deputy governor, a Muslim as SSG (secretary of state government), a Muslim as chief of staff, a Muslim as finance commissioner, we’ll not cheat Christians in Kaduna State. And everywhere we go we tell them. Yes, that’s it; the top government hierarchy in Kaduna State is Muslim but can any Christian in Kaduna prove that we’ve oppressed them?”
Many people attribute the backlash and public opprobrium the comment generated as part of many reasons he was refused a ministerial appointment by President Tinubu despite insinuations that he was promised to lead the President’s effort at energy transformation in Nigeria. However, residents of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), where El-Rufai shone his skills as an administrator and an enforcer as a minister, woke to see posters in several parts of the city presenting the former governor in negatives as working against the administration of President Tinubu. The posters were signed by ‘Asiwaju Support Group’. They bore such inscriptions as: “El-Rufai by the grace of God Tinubu s president and there is nothing you can do about it”, “El-Rufai stop your subversive activities against the Bola Tinubu administration”, “DSS invite El-Rufai for interrogation over his foreign activities targeted at the Bola Tinubu administration”, and “El-Rufai is a security threat”.
Seeing those posters was troubling especially when they accused El-Rufai of involvement in “subversive activities’ against the President. It made one ask if the centre is no longer holding firm for El-Rufai and his associates in the APC. Is the Asiwaju camp ready to break the umbilical cord binding the President and El-Rufai? What could be El-Rufai’s ‘sins’ to attract such negative posters and even a call on the DSS to investigate him? Whose toes did he step on, or, is stepping on? Who is El-Rufai ‘fighting’ and who is tackling him?
The posters provoke a lot of other questions and indeed, insinuations. Like a commentator who read the posters at Berger Junction said “it is either he is pursuing something or something is pursuing him”.
There is no ruling out treachery with Nigeria’s brand of politics and for this reason; there are suggestions that those who have held public offices and eventually lost out of the power grip should be able to fix their gaze on other endeavours. No doubt, aspiring political office seekers see hurdles more.
And, it is their business to collapse such hurdles so as to succeed. Having been governor of Kaduna state there is no suggesting that El-Rufai would fix his gaze on the state. He probably could be thinking of the presidency as his next game. And, that is where the concerns are, or, may be.
Therefore, if the posters against El-Rufai are coming from the Villa, it could be because 2027 is already being put in focus. This is especially with the current hardship which has been blamed on Tinubu’s policies. However, as the former governor of Kaduna state, there is no doubting the fact that there are individuals or groups who may want to oppose or criticize El-Rufai, on grounds of political differences and his economic policies.
So many would disagree with his human rights records and his policies on education and land reforms for which they may want to cut a pound of flesh and limit his access to the presidency.
Some politicians disagree with El-Rufai’s political ideology and may view his governance style as authoritarian or divisive. Some people argue that his economic policies favour only a select group over others, which if indeed true, would lead to social inequality and economic segregation. This is also the concern in certain quarters about his handling of communal and ethno-religious conflicts over land ownership and resource allocation. His opponents had argued that his approach to resolving these conflicts was biased and rather created more tensions in the state.
Also, El-Rufai’s policies on education reforms as governor of Kaduna State, which led to the sack of teachers deemed unqualified, are now being cited as discriminative against some communities and did not address underlying questions negatively impacting the education system.
There is also the argument that El-Rufai is an advocate of free-market capitalism, privatisation, and neoliberal economic policies which prioritise profit over social welfarism favoured by the incumbent administration.
This may have pitched him against some forces in the administration as 2027 gets into focus. These reasons represent a range of perspectives as different individuals or groups may have their specific concerns or criticisms of El-Rufai’s political ideology, policies, or actions which may be a trigger for the campaign against him using those posters signed by ‘Asiwaju Support Group’.
The days ahead promise to be more interesting as the relationship between the Asiwaju Support Group, believed to be Villa Aficionados, and El-Rufai unfolds. This will, to a large extent, define the politics of 2027 and the real actors that will be on the chessboard. For now, Nigerians will prefer to focus more on solutions to the economic hardship and hyperinflation ravaging their lives.