In a research paper he published 18 years ago, Jesper Strömbäck (2005, p. 333) identified five benchmarks for determining whether a country should be regarded as a democracy. These involve checking to see whether: “(1) political decision-makers are elected by the people in free, fair and frequent elections, (2) there is freedom of expression, of the press and of information, (3) citizenship is inclusive, (4) everyone has the right to form and join organisations of their own choosing, and (5) society is law-governed.”
In each of these considerations or parameters, you can see why Nigeria does not qualify to be identified as a genuine democracy. Consider these. Nigeria has just demonstrated to the international community that it is seriously challenged by lack of capacity to conduct free, fair, peaceful, and trustworthy elections. Countries that are less economically endowed than Nigeria regularly teach us a lesson about how to organise lawful and peaceful elections. Political processes that other countries observe legally and openly are violated, conducted in darkness, and marred by chaos and outright illegalities in Nigeria.
Nigerian politicians deploy corrupt, devious, crude, and fraudulent methods to achieve victory in elections while other countries use lawful and transparent processes to attain valid and unimpeachable election outcomes. When people refer to Nigeria as a failed state, they point to criminal activities that undermine elections.
The widespread disappointment that followed the February 25, 2023, presidential election in which the rules were widely violated has prompted the question: Is there any value in Nigeria holding further elections to select political leaders? The answer must be an emphatic no, particularly when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and other crooked individuals devise sinister methods of producing pre-determined results that do not reflect the votes cast by citizens. Surely, there is no need for elections in which voters will be disenfranchised, in which many people will be deprived opportunities to participate in the political process, and in which electoral processes are contaminated.
Our political representatives are not elected in free, fair, transparent, and credible elections. This was demonstrated clearly by what happened during last month’s presidential and National Assembly elections.
Nigeria has become unstable, insecure, and unpredictable. Everything has fallen apart. We face major challenges that pose serious threats to the unity of the country. Some ethnic groups are threatening members of other ethnic groups, harassing them to vote for a particular political party. I have always believed that elections are about free choice. Every voter has a right to vote according to their conscience. No ethnic group has the right to threaten members of other ethnic groups to vote in a certain way.
To threaten members of one ethnic group to vote for a particular political party or candidate is the best way to sow the seeds of inter-ethnic strife that could inflame emotions and endanger social cohesion.
These are testing times. Cool heads are needed in Nigeria’s political environment but, unfortunately, mature politicians are in short supply. The future of Nigeria looks dim and ambiguous. How that future evolves will depend on how quickly and amicably politicians resolve the tension in the land.
Citizenship is far from inclusive in Nigeria, a broken and polarised country in which people feel they are alienated by political leaders who believe that only their kinsmen and members of the ruling political party are entitled to break the law. The idea that only people who hold certain political ideology or religious beliefs are more patriotic than other people is a recipe for disaster.
Far from being law-governed, there is general breakdown of law and order in Nigeria. Impunity by top government officials is rife. The integrity of the judiciary has become an issue. Above all, bandits, kidnappers, and terrorists are given space to dialogue with the government while marginalised groups in other parts of the country who are seeking autonomy for their region and their people are hunted and killed like animals. One country, two different approaches.
During the presidential and National Assembly elections, everything that ought not to go wrong went horribly wrong. All the elements associated with flawed elections in a failed state occurred before, during, and after the elections. Voting for political candidates was done in an environment that was not fair, free, peaceful, transparent, and credible. The uprightness of the elections was compromised and seriously damaged.
Over the years, elections in Nigeria have not offered a level playing field to all political candidates. The successful candidates are often second-rate but they possess the financial strength and the support of thugs who are paid to disrupt the process. In many cases, the candidates who are qualified, popular, and preferred by voters never get to scale the hurdle.
Prior to the 2023 presidential election, Nigerians had had a gutful of economic, political, social, healthcare, and infrastructural problems.
Against the background of eight years of living below the poverty line, it was a huge surprise for people to hear the chairperson of INEC, Mahmood Yakubu, announce that Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC had won the presidential election with more than eight million votes.
That announcement stung so many people. There was no way eight million Nigerians would have voted massively to remain in bondage, to continue to suffer economic hardships, poor governance, poor leadership, lack of direction, and to be governed by an ageing man who has serious health issues.
Nigerians wanted positive political change. And they came out in large numbers on election day to vote for that change. Sadly, the result announced by Yakubu flew in the face of reality. The results did not match people’s aspirations for political change, for a fresh start, and for a younger, more honest, and more vibrant candidate to emerge president.
Many people had hoped that a change would end all their suffering. INEC officials and other merchants of electoral misconduct had other ideas. Nigerians were saddened because they were scammed.
Compare the sombre national mood after the announcement that Tinubu had won the election with the happiness that swept across the country when Buhari was declared the winner of the 2015 presidential election. In 2015, people rejoiced openly and chanted songs to eulogise Buhari but they did not realise that worse times awaited them. The 2015 presidential election was deemed historic on the ground that an opposition candidate had ousted an incumbent president. Never in the history of military and democratic rule in Nigeria and in various parts of Africa had an election produced such a landmark and inconceivable outcome.
In 2023, Nigerians were primed for political change that would lead to improvements in their socioeconomic conditions. Before the election, many people looked dejected, hopeless, apprehensive, and fatigued. There was misery everywhere. For many years, people hankered for a political redeemer who would pull the nation out of despair. For many years, Nigerians asked for bread but they were given gravels to chew. For many years, Nigerians craved the emergence of a genuine political leader who has people’s welfare in their heart.
The February 2023 presidential election gave everyone an opportunity to make an important statement about their level of dissatisfaction with the prevailing situation in Nigeria. Sadly, that opportunity was blocked. People’s wishes for a better Nigeria were hijacked, obstructed, and shredded.
The message from that ignoble announcement made by Yakubu was that the people of Nigeria preferred to swim and drown with the APC. How possibly true could that be? It was weird to see Yakubu announce results of a presidential election that looked in every sense false, contrived, pre-determined, and something that dropped from the outer space.