By Omoniyi Salaudeen
Legitimately or otherwise, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has set the stage for another intense struggle for power far ahead of the release of the timetable for the next general elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Its implicit initiation of a fresh electioneering process followed the recent endorsement of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term at the National Summit held in Abuja, ignoring the electorate’s response to the administration’s shortcomings.
The two-year old administration is marked by a tale of unfulfilled promises and disappointing expectations. But the party leadership passed a vote of confidence in President Tinubu for his sterling performance, sparking criticisms from the opposition parties.
By beating the gun, APC has raised political temperature in the country. This is happening because the country does not have political culture that focuses on performance.
Often times, the political class beat the gun before the electoral umpire blows the whistle. Though APC’s endorsement of Tinubu is not an isolated case, but it came too soon.
And it has reawakened the opposition political parties to begin their power struggle with several implications for the polity and governance.
One, the current desperation for power by the state gladiators has shown that the country’s political culture only prioritizes short-term gains and personal interests over long-term development and the welfare of its citizens.
Secondly, the focus on securing a second term may likely lead to hasty decision-making and scheming to maintain power.
Hasty decision-making can in turn lead to policy instability, undermining long-term development and progress. Focusing on short-term gains can also hinder long-term development and progress, perpetuating challenges like insecurity, poverty, inequality, and infrastructure deficits.
For Nigeria to move forward, therefore, there is a need to break the cycle of hasty scheming for a second term while governance is put on hold. But the question is: Who will bell the cat?
It is particularly intriguing to note that prominent leaders like Atiku Abubakar, Nasir el-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi, who are championing the formation of a new coalition to wrest power from the incumbent, have also not demonstrated genuine concerns for the socio-economic development of the country. Instead, they prioritise their interests over the needs of the country and its citizens. When politicians prioritize personal interests over public welfare, it erodes trust in government and institutions.
For the people’s desire for a change of the old order, Nigeria is currently at the crossroads. The country is in dire need of a new set of leaders who can lead the country out of the woods.
However, none of the leading opposition figures can be said to have a clean break from the past. They are same of the same. There are no discernible differences between the so-called coalition forces and those of the status quo.
Other than rhetoric, abuse, emotion and mudslinging, Atiku, el-Rufai, and Amaechi have not brought any new idea to the table to boast public confidence in their alliance talks. Before Amaechi lately joined the fray, leveraging his 60th birthday anniversary in Abuja, Atiku and el-Rufai had been campaigning against the Tinubu administration with malicious gusto. But their efforts to achieve a consensus have been stalled largely by Atiku’s ambition to be president. His reputation as a perennial contender, his antecedent as the most inconsistent and most obstinate political actor, make him a difficult candidate to present.
Over the past three decades of his power struggles, he has traversed virtually all political parties. The current wave of defections that has hit the PDP has been blamed on his obsession with power. Cut from the same cloth also, el-Rufai too is bellyaching because of his exclusion from ministerial appointment. By leading the campaign for a coalition, he intends to take his pound of the flesh.
Though their reasons for the proposal for the formation of a new alliance resonates, not much has been said about alternative ideas that can bail the country out of it numerous challenges, including insecurity, rising debt profile, inflation, power crisis and economic hardship, among others.
These underscore the need for a change. However, a change that doesn’t address the underlying issues or provide meaningful solutions to societal problems is undesirable. When changes fail to deliver expected benefits, it leads to disillusionment among citizens, eroding trust in institutions and leaders.
Former President Muhammadu Buhari rode on the crest of a change slogan in 2015. After his eight years in office, he left on his trail a tale of insecurity, anguish, mismanaged economy, corruption and a rent-seeking culture.
Relief is not in sight with Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda either. This implies that it is only by evaluating changes based on their potential to address societal problems and improve lives that those seeking to govern can work with the people to create more effective and desirable transformations.
As far as people’s desire for socio-economic transformation is concerned, Nigeria is currently off the track.
Rather than the hasty endorsement of President Tinubu for a second term, the current APC-led administration should admit responsibility for all its failing.
Chief Chekwas Okorie, while sharing his perspective of the unfolding political scenario with Sunday Sun, described the purported endorsement as premature, panicky and childish.
He said: “Quite frankly, I find the endorsement the President received from the APC and members of the party in the National Assembly on the occasion of his second year in office very funny. That endorsement smacks of panic because the time for endorsement of candidates is not due yet.
“In fact, some of the statements they made indicated that they were ready to proceed from there to mobilizing Nigerians for the 2027 general elections, which is almost like starting up campaign well ahead of the time the law stipulated for the commencement of political activities. I expected them to stop at passing a vote of confidence in the President for what they consider to be his laudable performance in the first two years. A vote of confidence would have been enough and nobody will quarrel with that.
“To say that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock is to take Nigerians for fools who cannot decide for themselves what they want. If Tinubu is not able to win the next election, he won’t be the first person to lose an election after the first tenure. A recent example is former President Goodluck Jonathan. The people in APC acted childishly. They were very naïve in the way they endorsed the President for a second term two years before another election.
“Now that they have flagged off campaign, the so-called coalition forces have taken a cue from them. So, campaign for 2027 has begun in earnest. The implication is that governance will be the victim. And Nigerians will suffer more because attention will be taken away from their needs to the issue of power.”
Juxtaposing the current political reality with the APC’s endorsement, Chief Okorie gave a dicey prognosis of Tinubu’s success in the 2027 presidential election.
He said: “There will likely be a three-way battle. Peter Obi has made it clear that he is running again for the presidency. Atiku has never rescinded his ambition to vie again. And here we have the President seeking for re-election. From the PDP’s angle, they seem to be saying that they will zone presidency to the South. Whosoever they come up with, it will further divide the Southern votes, while the North may likely present one candidate. So, it will be a tall order for the North not to decide the outcome of the election.”
Okorie expressed doubt in the possibility of the Tinubu administration achieving any significant change in the fortune of the economy in the remaining two years before the next general elections.
He added: “By the end of this month, Atiku’s platform would have become more pronounced. And it is likely to be ADC. For all I know, ADC has already transferred its leadership to the new benefactors or those who have purchased their party. Peter Obi says he is still in the Labour Party, but INEC is not in a hurry to recognize Obi’s leadership in the party. For every intent and purpose, Peter Obi is using Obidient Movement to set up structures which he didn’t have before. Before, he underplayed the importance of structure, but now, he knows. He has gained some experience and it is very likely that he lands in another party at the nick of time. He may decide to go for the Zenith Labour Party which has some similarities with LP in name. Already, the Governor of Abia State, Alex Otti, has used that party (Zenith Labour Party) to deliver the local government elected officers following the problem he had in the Labour Party.
“So, I won’t be surprised if he has an understanding with the leadership of Zenith Labour Party to do what ADC leadership has done. At the end of the day, whatever the Obidient family decides to do, one thing is obvious; Peter Obi is flying the presidential ticket. Atiku too is flying a presidential flag. ADC may decide to fly Amaechi/El-Rufai ticket. So, the Southern presidential candidates are going to dissipate the votes in the South, while all of Buhari’s men, including Malami and 12 other former ministers, are moving together to ally with Atiku. So, it is not going to be easy for the incumbent President whose foot soldiers are misleading him by saying that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock. Things are not looking good for him at all. He inherited a very bad economy. I don’t see any magic he will do in the remaining two years to change the fortune of the economy when campaign has almost started.”
A former Chairman of the PDP in Lagos State, Tunji Shelle, also recounted many woes Nigeria has experienced under the Tinubu administration.
In a telephone interview with Sunday Sun, he said: “It is only the people in APC that can endorse the president for a second term. It’s like the people in this government don’t know the reality on ground. They believe their man has done well, that is why they have endorsed him. But everybody knows that the country is sick. There is high inflation, electricity tariff is high, communication tariff is high, cost of transportation is high, and food is not easy to come by. An average person doesn’t have food to eat. People are hungry; people are dying because they cannot afford their drugs.
“They are piling up debt instead of reducing it. We cannot feel the gains of subsidy removal. No doubt, more money is going to the states, but the Federal Government is controlling 52 per cent federal allocation, the rest 48 per cent is divided between the states and the local government.
“There is heightened insecurity across the states, from Benue to Plateau, Borno to Zamfara. The Coastal road being paraded is a scam. They didn’t do up to 30 kilometres of the 700-kilometre Highway and they are celebrating it. How do we reconcile all these? Nigerians should wake up for the 2027 election and troop out to vote against this devilish government.”
While acknowledging doubt in the capacity of the characters currently leading the alliance formation, he assured that people of integrity would join forces together to rescue the country from the ruling APC.
“I share the sentiment that the set of people leading the coalition have question marks in their assessment. That is why the movement is slow. By the time it picks up, the right people will come out. Some people have come out with their shadow cabinet. Those people mean well. These calibre of people who have good intension are still at the background. When the time comes, possibly before the end of this year or middle of next year, we shall see a good alliance formation. By then, people with integrity, people with dignity will then come together to form the alliance.
“Even APC people will join because they know they have failed. Those people who are talking of endorsement and those running to APC are shady characters who want to continue to oppress the average Nigerians. Nigerian people will be fed up between now and 2027. And they know what is good for them,” he posited.
However, a chieftain of the APC in Ekiti State, Senator Anthony Adeniyi, insisted that President Tinubu has done well enough to deserve a second term.
“He has performed well enough to deserve a second term. He has worked well to the admiration of Nigerians. That is why our party is presenting him as our sole candidate for the next election.
“No doubt, security is still very challenging. It had been in existence before Tinubu came and he is tackling it. The government is trying hard to make the country safe. Just recently, 51 terrorists were liquidated in Niger State, he said.
Reacting to the proposal for alliance formation, he challenged those leading the charge to come out to test their popularity in the next general elections.
“There is nothing like a coalition. It is Atiku that is trying to be president. We are not discouraging anybody from forming a coalition. Let them try it. Is it El-Rufai who presided over the affairs of Kaduna State and the southern people were being killed everyday that you want to talk about? What did he do then? Nothing. I am not pre-empting them, but they can’t do anything. Anybody can aspire to be President. Let them tell us what they can do that we didn’t do. Let them continue to make noise. We are not bothered at all. Whosoever has an ambition to be president, let him try it,” he declared.