The title of today›s essay is the more realistic picture I see of the presidential race in 2023, if all things were to be equal. But can things ever be equal? That’s a difficult one there! So, surprises can spring out especially when one is dealing with politics of our kind where good conscience has no value.
This discourse is about the presidential election, scheduled to hold in February 2023. The laws have been fine-tuned and the political parties as would be expected are in the process of picking their flag-bearers. We are seeing the expected frenzy and it is interesting. What is not are new conversations being raised, not downplaying the attitude of trying very hard to change the goal posts at a time the game is on. One plank for aspiring to this high office was supposed to be a gentleman’s agreement that power or better still the presidential seat will rotate between the northern and southern parts of the country.
For those short on remembrance, it is vital we make this recollection: our country has had several discussion sessions all geared toward finding means for harmonious cohabitation among the different tribes that make up our entity. At each point in time in the affairs of the country, management of presidential power had always been an issue and that is because our kind of presidency has been described as the most powerful in the world today. We subscribe to federalism but have been coerced into a unitary system where nearly everything revolves around the administration at the centre.
This arrangement has thrown up convulsions at every point including deep concerns about who wields power and for how long. It was for this reason that political players began to moot the idea of power rotation as panacea for potent threats of disintegration. Before many could comprehend what the real arguments and altercations were all about, the imports for national wellbeing, the suggestion to rotate presidential power between North and South had been proposed and it gained acceptance. It was an idea whose time had indeed come. It is of interest to know the coinage “north and south” came from the northern side of the divide. South wanted six geopolitical zones arrangement that would be captured in the law. The North also stoutly opposed the zonal proposition and the desire to make it a legal matter. It was left to goodwill. Now we see the limit of relying on goodwill.
The truth we must tell ourselves especially at the point we are, would have to be the fact we have a very negative political culture. There is deficit of integrity, trust and commitment to greater ideals. Political players change in minutes; the citizens hail and call it good politics. A man hurts himself and begins to cheer; only a demon possessed does that.
We are in bad shape now, never in the history of our country have we been this divided. Never! Frictions and attendant massive killings have become the new normal. In one day over 50 citizens are killed and it is as if nothing significant happened. The root cause is buried in ethnic and religious politics, and of course, unrepentant sense of entitlement. Still some northerners want rotation to stop. The argument is that zoning is archaic and anachronistic;
Those pushing for its abrogation propagate merit allied to competence. Good intentions, but we know that noble intentions standing alone may not produce the desired results. For noble intentions to be useful they must align with time. Change not well planned could undo the foundation. Zoning is not the best but it is not a bad idea either. It is suitable for a particular time in the life of a backward society especially one that earnestly desires to move from country to nationhood. Inclusivity has always been a great tool for moulding nation-states, which the developed nations hold out as examples. President Barack Obama, a Black man didn›t just happen on American psychology; his emergence as president was the outcome of deliberately cultivated acts spanning decades. Canada has a small percentage of French population but today they do not only have autonomy under a true federal system, the French language is one of the two official languages.
If our leaders allow the system to run, citizens would pick quality leaders. They know the good men but hindered from throwing them up by the terrible political culture in place. What is more, it is pure deceit to want merit when it relates to power at the topmost commanding height and not propagate immediate abrogation of quota system, federal character and the likes. We have challenges of buy-in into the Nigerian project by component, reason all current aspirants for the office of president to begin with a pledge to unify the country. The right thing to do when a problem is identified is to solve it. South East deserves a look in.
Now to the vision I see for the 2023 presidential race: I hold on to Bola Tinubu for the All Progressives Congress (APC). He is the one that is on the throttle now. It would appear APC is going South West when South East should be the right place. This may have its throwups: Igbo vs Yoruba resentment may grow. Igbo may feel short changed. Would that be right? It will definitely be subject of debates. If APC runs along that line, then Tinubu may clinch it for obvious reasons. He has a structure that is still potent despite taking quite some beatings recently through restructuring of the Party by the conservative faction led by President Buhari. His contributions to the party are huge. Excerpt Buhari throws up a surprise Tinubu is it.
For the PDP the entry of Pius Anyim and Peter Obi offers them a lifeline. Both are loaded and would deliver if given the chance. Like South West has done to APC, undivided support of South East saved the party from APC onslaught. Denying them the candidacy will have deep repercussions. Decision of northerners to run is obvious threat to national unity.
Between Anyim and or Peter Obi and Tinubu, who will Nigerians trust the most to push the case for greater New Nigeria? This will be the question from May.