…As presidential, NASS elections hold on Saturday
By Daniel Kanu
The much talked about 2023 general election in the country is just a matter of six days away.
Nigeria appears to be at a critical juncture – preparing to ascend another transition of power, a rigorous hurdle that requires meticulous preparation and political calculation.
Like every other election season, the stakes are high; tension abounds and uncertainty is also in abundance. It is this uncertainty that has now given rise to deep concerns and worries whether this presidential election will be conducted smoothly, despite assurances from the electoral umpire, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
But unlike other elections in the past, the political consciousness ignited is so high with a general verdict that the 2023 election may likely be a defining moment in the history of the corporate existence of Nigeria.
This is the seventh consecutive general election since the country returned to democratic rule in 1999, and expectedly, there are key issues that are expected to shape the outcome of the election going by Sunday Sun engagement with political observers and critical stakeholders.
The much-awaited election will coincide with 24 years of uninterrupted democracy, the longest in the country’s history.
For now, looking at critical stakeholders, from the political parties, the electoral umpire – INEC – security agencies, voters and observers, not much can guarantee on how the election will go except through permutation.
Sunday Sun findings revealed that issues of ethnicity, religion, money influence, violence, unity through hunger, insecurity, abuse of electoral processes by INEC staff, political intimidation and the challenges of logistics, remain some of the factors that will shape the 2023 elections.
To many, who spoke with Sunday Sun, these are the critical issues that may make or mar Nigeria’s 2023 presidential race.
Given past experiences and trajectories, it is not certain if Nigeria’s election can overcome those potential obstacles – laying in-wait for the votes to count.
Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, a socio-political think-tank, Dr Sam Amadi, explained that many factors would shape the 2023 presidential election.
Amadi said that critical issues, including ethnicity, religion, economy, insecurity, and demographic changes will shape the election.
According to him, “many issues will affect the 2023 presidential election. One of them is the collapsed economic and social life of Nigerians. The failure of the APC government has raised the importance of good leadership. The #EndSARS movement has mutated into a political movement and will impact on the outcome of the election. We do not know the extent of the impact.
“Another factor is religion. The Muslim-Muslim ticket debate will affect voting. In South and Central Nigeria, many Christians will reject the APC ticket because of its lack of religious diversity. The unknown is how much it can mobilise votes of Muslims for the ticket in the North. Ethnicity may not be such a strong factor. The Southwest seems poised to share votes between the old and the new; between the status quo and the future. Ethnicity may improve voter enthusiasm in Southeast where the candidate of the Labour Party hails from. But it may be displaced by religion and social and economic issues.”
The renowned academic and political commentator explained that “demographic changes will affect the result. We will see rural-urban divide. It is expected that whereas the rural electorate may remain attached to the status quo parties, we will see significant urban shifts. The winner of the election will be the person who takes much of those urban voters who have in the past not been keen to participate in presidential election.
“Beyond these permutations of what would shape the 2023 presidential race and other significant changes that may occur in the polls, it is almost certain that the tension and apprehension will grow by the day as the election draws nearer. The fear of politicians wanting to undermine the election is high, according local peculiarities. In the Southeast and Lagos State, for example, there are fears that party leaders in APC and PDP may want to suppress Peter Obi’s votes in those locations, seen as his strong hold.
“The issues and threats of Boko Haram terrorists, banditry and kidnapping in the Northwest, Northeast in places like Borno, Adamawa, Niger, Kaduna, and Plateau states are critical as well.
“Still, there is the concern of INEC officials, top ranking personnel and staff; security agencies and their personnel compromising the electoral process.
“In all, the stakes are high: the economy is on a free-fall; the Naira is gyrating, poverty has continued to climb restlessly, life has become brutish and joblessness has fiercely increased more devil advocates so much that, the 2023 presidential election comes with great risks depending how it is conducted.
“Worst still, the current socio-economic crisis and the prevailing dystopia should compel concrete steps that will ensure credible and rancour-free presidential race in its outcome.
“If history is our guide, the pathway to a saner 2023 presidential election may be tortuous, nebulous and daunting; but the onus to make the polls credible rests with Nigerian democratic institutions – INEC, parties, voters and state agencies. It is a fight between vested interests and the people; urban and rural; tribal gangs and patriots. It is a ritual that all the stakes are staked for political power.
“Will the voters triumph or will power mongers have a field day? Time will tell”.
In view of the concerns thus far, the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), a West African think-tank in a report highlighted the possible hurdles that may jeopardise the 2023 presidential election.
CDD Director, Idayat Hassan, stressed that the prevailing challenges at hand could upturn Nigeria’s chances of conducting smooth and credible polls, in a nation, still struggling to consolidate democratic governance.
Hassan explained that the issues that will shape the 2023 presidential election are enormous and varies, describing the most visible as, “an unprecedented epidemic of insecurity.”
In the CDD report, code-named, ‘2023 Elections: SWOT Analysis,’ the body noted the other critical issues that may likely shape the 2023 presidential race.
It contended that there are worries about covering the 176,846 polling units, which would compel the recruitment and training of close to 1.5 million poll and security officials. This is about four times the size of the Nigerian military.
Beyond these concerns, there are fears that logistics challenges may be deliberately orchestrated for purposes of voters suppression and undermining voters’ democratic rights to elect a president in 2023.
CDD is also worried that “at the same time, the secessionist agitations in the Southeast could reduce turnout, which may not favour either the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Mr Peter Obi or Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar.”
The CDD report also stressed that “money will continue to play a huge role in determining who emerges the winner if the presidential primaries and recent gubernatorial elections offer any lesson.”
On how sentiments would influence the presidential poll, CDD added that “religion, ethnicity, and money politics would shape the people’s choice among the three major candidates – Atiku of the PDP, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Labour Party’s Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).”
Also, concurring with some of the views expressed by respondents who spoke with Sunday Sun, President, Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) Joe Ajaero told Sunday Sun that issues of tribe, religion, economy, INEC conduct, insecurity, money, as well as credibility of candidates would be key determinants.
“Of course, we do not need a ghost to show to us issues that would shape this election, but to how extent is what you cannot guess correctly.
“Looking at our developmental trajectory so far, issues of ethnicity, religion, money, security challenge, economy, and the latest revolution from the youths will all go a long way to shape the outcome of this 2023 election”.
Former Finance Commissioner in Abia State, Dr Phillip Nto told Sunday Sun that critical issues would shape the election, negatively and positively.
He listed ethnicity, religion, economy, insecurity, naira redesign, among others as some key issues that would determine the outcome of the election.
“Let me first approach it from the positive point of view. First of all, the various persons that are contesting for the various offices of the land have really expressed themselves, showing their capacities and inadequacies to manage the nation, so it is now left for the electorate to take their decision in choosing the candidate that meets up with their expectation,” he noted.
Nto, a former World Bank consultant, said: “However, the issue of Naira redesign and the shape of events today is not satisfactory. The Naira redesign ought to check the election positively, but the way it is now being politicised makes some of us to worry.
“A situation where some people are now playing politics with it is not a good thing considering the election that is around the corner. Instead of people to campaign for the CBN to print more new notes and make it available, most people are now campaigning that both the old and new notes should be used together. It is not done this way. “Enough period was given for people to deposit the old currency into their accounts, but some still left their money in their houses, so that they will use it during the election period. They are the ones campaigning that both currencies should be used together, which is wrong.
“They want to use it to buy votes from the electorate. Some of the politicians are also hoarding the new notes. When you hoard the new notes it will increase the level of hunger and this may affect the outcome of the election.
“It means that any amount you now give to these electorate that are hungry they will accept and vote for you. “Remember that most of them are not educated as to refuse the money or collect it and still will not vote for you since they know you can’t deliver.”
Nto, who is also Provost, Abia State College of Education Technical Arochukwu (ASCETA), also noted that “INEC should make it a duty that nobody should enter the polling unit with a phone. People that may want to collect money should collect their money, but vote according to their conscience.
“Also, insecurity is another problem. For you to have free, fair and credible election, it must be in an atmosphere of good security, there should not be any security threat, people should not be intimidated or be made to vote in fear. See, what is happening in some campaign venues where they are attacking opponents.
“See what happened in Lagos recently when Peter Obi came for his last mega campaign, where the opposition party is hiring thugs. You can see how some LP supporters were attacked.
“It happened in some other states too where they have resorted to using thugs. The situation poses danger and it is left for the different security agencies now to rise to the challenge.
“The development can make some people not to come out on the day of election for fear of being attacked. It is not a good thing for our election and our democracy.
“Every voter is entitled to vote according to their perception and conviction for those they want to vote for. Nobody should be intimidated. Our security agencies should ensure there is adequate security.
“Of course, in our clime here religion also plays its role. Ordinarily, Nigeria is divided into two major religious divide. Democracy is all about inclusiveness, it’s about choices.
“I am a Christian, ordinarily; I should believe that since the current president who is leaving office soon is a Muslim the next president should come from the other (Christian) group.
“But it ought not to be like this if we emphasize capacity and competence and if all sections are carried along, included. If you have a leader that is not bias, a leader that treats everybody fairly without discrimination, religion ought not to have a role, just like ethnicity.
“When a leader is fair to all in his policies people will play down on religion and ethnicity, but you can see that in the Nigerian context, the leader tries very hard to favour a particular group, religion among other issues.
“This is bad because the economy of Nigeria is just one. The economy will not affect the Muslims positively, differently and the Christians negatively. The way it is hitting the Igbo is the way it will also be biting the Yoruba, Hausa and the Fulani and other ethnic groups. It is the same thing with religion. So, we should dwell more on competence, capacity to deliver dividends of democracy to all Nigerians”.
Umma Getso, bold political activist and the vice presidential candidate of the Young Progressives Party (YPP) in the 2019 presidential elections told Sunday Sun that she was worried that some of the issues shaping the nation’s elections have been sentimental issues such as religion, ethnic background, and candidates’ financial muscles, among others.
For me, it’s time we focused on “the capacity, competence, credibility, past records or antecedents of candidates. We should go for candidates that have a vision, compassion, humane, bridge builders, nation builders, economy builders, unifiers, those that have shown exemplary leadership and not people that divide us with religion or using ethnic sentiment for their selfish interest”.
Senatorial candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Abia South, Hon. Blessing Nwagba, told Sunday Sun that it’s time Nigerians jettisoned the issues of religion, ethnicity and money politics and give priority attention to “capacity, competence, character, credibility, antecedents and vision of the candidate”.
She urged Nigerians to “look out and vote for candidates that have compassion, competence, contented, not driven by greed, honest, knowledgeable, and with the ability to deliver their promise of democracy dividends”.
She said that gender should not be a disadvantage, but insisted that “there is the need to accommodate more women, competent and credible women with track records in Nigeria’s political space”.
Also, Martin Onovo, an egineer, activist, social commentator and 2015 presidential candidate of the National Conscience Party (NCP) told Sunday Sun that “politicians especially this APC government has deeply divided this country to ethnic and religious cleavages. They have destroyed Nigeria, sowing evil seeds of hatred.
“They know, I mean the APC leadership knows that they have failed Nigerians, so they are applying all sorts of divisive tendencies like ethnicity and religion. I have never seen a country destroyed this way. The APC government is wicked and evil.
“They know that Nigerians will vote them out, so they are using religion and ethnic sentiments more than ever before and they have hijacked all the money for vote buying.
“Of course, issues of religion and ethnicity will shape the election which is not supposed to be so. We should be emphasizing character, competence, antecedents, capacity and all that. But it does not seem that all is lost looking at the consciousness and political zeal among the youths to make a statement with their votes. They may change the political tide because this election will be a watershed, a breaking point, and if we don’t get it right, Nigeria is finished”.
Although all critical stakeholders have assured that everything is set for the election, the political climate in the land looks doubtful with anxieties and fears that all is well, especially with all the uncertainties trailing the Naira swap, fuel scarcity, among others, which have resulted to riots and demonstrations in some parts of the country.
It is this uncertainty that has now given rise to concerns and worries about whether the 2023 presidential election will be conducted smoothly.