The real reason for postponing any election would never be given by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The terse press statement from Uncle Nick Dazang- spokesman of the commission- would always present a few paragraphs of dense explanations. Top officials of the agency, seasoned civil servants that they are, would merely silently comply and leave town- all deeply aware of the underlining grim reason for the postponement.
For the non-initiate, you have to look deeper to decipher the mystery behind drastic, inexplicable shift in polling dates. Normally, the shifts start as rumours only for them to become a reality like a nightmare. The ‘impartial” umpire would then always adduce some very plausible reasons: security, lack of proper preparations, petitions from stakeholders, holidays, and in short just about any excuse they could find. But then, even a child knows that the reason for any shift is to buy time for a losing side during an election. It is as simple as that. My first experience with a postponement of polls was in 2011. I was in my ward feverishly working for our victory when news came that the election might be moved. I was pained by that and wondered how callous INEC could be to just move the exercise to a more “convenient day”. While I whined, my big brother and seasoned power broker, Dr. Mark Useni (who later became Speaker of the Taraba State House of Assembly) just smiled at me almost compassionately. Pulling me to the side, he said “Emma, when would you learn politics? This postponement might be a blessing in disguise. Don’t complain yet.” For the real practitioners, nothing is negative in politics as all things worketh for good. Dr.Useni was right. The shift became our saving grace. Our side deftly capitalised on it to do more campaigns, raise more funds, convince undecided voters and generally altered the direction of the election. The opposition was caught off guards by the shift. A longer weekend meant more campaign expenses from their side. It also meant that their supporters are going to be weary. By the end of the postponements, their fears were confirmed. The ruling party had dug in and wiped out their lead in the polls. They were better prepared now for the polls and, with a thick cloud of discouragement in the opposition’s camp, victory was certain. We won quite convincingly. The other experience was in 2015 when the presidential polls were suddenly moved from February to March. This time, the ruling party was up against a movement that couldn’t have been stopped by any kind of delays or postponements. The current nation’s leader was at his best in ratings and acceptance, especially among younger internet savvy voters. The postponement said to be occasioned by the security situation in the North East was received with scepticism. Unlike the first example I gave, this 2015 postponement proved to be a killer punch to the ruling party. A new movement suddenly emerged from it. From the Febuhari hashtags, the shift led to a new one tagged March for Buhari. Clearly, the ploy had backfired with the opposition getting more emboldened. There was a certain sense of mission with various groups believing that their rights were being toyed with. The result? The opposition widen its lead; undecided voters easily sided with the underdog; more people vowed to be part of the change train. In the end, the ruling party merely postponed the evil day. That which they greatly feared fell on them in a terrible way. The opposition won the general polls almost with a landslide. In the post mortem that followed, the postponement was cited as one of the reasons the ruling party failed last year.
Fast forward to September, 2016. Benin city, Edo State to be precise. What started as a rumour eventually happened: an election that was slated for a particular date was moved in rather cloudy circumstances. It followed the well-known pattern: first is the rumour about an imminent shift which is then effectively carried out. In dramatic twist, the police wanted a shift, with INEC pretending to be annoyed about it. INEC eventually accepted the proposal. At first, I didn’t believe what I was hearing, putting it down as the mischief of the opposition in the state. I said to myself that the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) won’t stoop so low as to be scared of the opposition. Besides, this is a party that saw how a postponement aided its ascendancy last year and so would not want to be caught using the same tricks. What’s more, I believed that in any election in that state, the APC should win, especially with the vigorous way it has campaigned.
A day to the adjournment, many governors and even the nation’s maximum leader was at a grand finale of a party rally. The pomp and pageantry was palpable: the party was set to win. At the rally, the president had declared that a vote for the party’s flag bearer Godwin Obaseki was a vote for him. Was that a good or bad thing to say? Was it possible that underneath all the prancing and dancing of Governor Adams Oshiomhole, there was a hidden fear of the opposition? Knowing how elections are prosecuted in these parts, what could have informed the sudden dread that followed such a robust rally? A day earlier too, Obaseki, hadn’t done badly in a CHANNELS TV organised debate. He was refined and articulate though chocking at some of the questions. At a point I felt Obaseki’s pains as the much more experienced Pastor Iyamu of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) roasted him with clear cut policy thrust and a certain confidence that shows he was ahead in the polls. But then, this is Africa and not the United States of America where a poor showing at a debate may cost one the elections. Debates don’t change a thing in these climes. They, of course, showcase the preparedness of the electorate and help to display their knowledge or ignorance of issues but if that helps with actual votes, I don’t know. Voters are swayed by other considerations out here in the third world. Among the many things voters look at for, gratification would always be number one. A voter would like to know who “values” his vote the most and what premium a candidate places on it. But all that might as well be in the past as things are changing. The Nigerian electorate is gradually coming out of decades of vote selling and apathy when it comes to making decisions. Votes are counting and the electorate is getting bolder in expressing its position.
And, ironically, it all might have started with the broom revolution popularised by the likes of Oshiomhole. They, back then, helped voters to know that they could look beyond the tyranny of leadership and assert their rights. The genie is out of the bottle. The revolution started by the current ruling party is suddenly threatening to consume it. So, faced with this kind of scenario where the Edo electorate appears to be saying they want “change”; and with a governor accused of everything including not “patronising made in Nigeria”; with a recession blamed entirely on the party at the centre; with the charismatic followership of the pastor; with the general anger in the air; it was obvious to the party leaders dancing at that rally that APC may not fare well at the polls. Postponing the election was therefore seen as one of the many things they could do to avert defeat. Will a postponement work differently this time? Only time can tell that.
