Ordinarily, you would think that the 2023 presidential election was an open contest in which candidates of various political parties locked horns in their bid for the presidential seat. But the election, in truth, was not an open affair. It was a closed shop wherein the incumbent President set out to hand over power to a candidate anointed by him and the cabal that ran his presidency.
When Bola Tinubu proclaimed that it was his turn to be President, he was only giving a loud expression to a plot that was about to be hatched. It was a plot in which Tinubu and Muhammadu Buhari were the protagonists. There can be no story without both of them involved. In other words, the story, in this case the presidential contest, was about them. Their ambitions, aspirations and preferences were intertwined. Tinubu’s claim to the presidency was largely one of entitlement. It was anchored on his oft-repeated position that he helped to translate Buhari’s dream of becoming Nigeria’s President into reality. The received impression in political circles was that Tinubu went into an alliance with Buhari to ensure the dethronement of Jonathan; that it was the coming of the political amalgamation called the All Progressives Congress (APC) that made it possible for Buhari to clinch victory in the 2015 presidential election. That was the way it seemed. But was that really the case?
It must be acknowledged that the coming of the APC posed a challenge to the then ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But that was not enough to dethrone the then incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan, from the presidency. Jonathan would have remained as President regardless of the Buhari-Tinubu alliance, if he had courage. He was not defeated in the 2015 presidential election by Buhari. What happened was that he preferred to let Buhari and his co-conspirators have their way to witnessing an uprising in which many would die. Jonathan was complicit in his own dethronement. He allowed the then head of the electoral commission, Attahiru Jega, to undermine his authority as President. Jega openly worked for the opposition APC. That was why the votes cast by thousands of underage voters in the North were allowed to count. It was an election in which unknown, outrageous and never-seen figures were manufactured by the electoral commission in some northern states like Kano, Kaduna and Katsina, among others, and declared as authentic. But whereas votes in parts of the North rose geometrically, votes in some southern states, including Jonathan’s Bayelsa State, were suppressed. Jega’s electoral commission perfected a rigging arrangement that was tailored towards removing Jonathan as President. Jonathan was a witness to it all but he behaved as if he was tied to the stake. He could not resist the plot that eventually dethroned him. That was Jonathan. He did not have the clout to take charge of the presidency under him. He was further weakened by the absence of a strong home base. His ethnic stock did not seem to matter to those who were up in arms against him. That was why he was easily intimidated out of office.
The point being made here is that Tinubu did not make Buhari President. It was Jonathan that did. Jonathan relinquished power to Buhari out of panic. He was not bold enough to call the bluff of the segment of the North that threatened to unleash hell on the country, if he remained in office as President. That was the situation then. Tinubu, therefore, was wrong in his claim that he made Buhari President. He was also wrong in declaring that it was his turn to be President.
In the light of the foregoing, Buhari’s support for Tinubu was not a payback arrangement. Buhari had to queue behind Tinubu because the cabal that ran his presidency made it possible. Here, we are talking about elements who took Buhari through certain tutorials on which part of the country he should hand over power to. The cabal considered retaining power in the North through Atiku Abubakar, but it dropped the idea because it would mean that the North will be in charge of the presidency for 16 uninterrupted years. This arrangement would be skewed against the South. The cabal considered that it would be impolitic to follow that route.
After an extensive consideration, the cabal decided that power should shift to the South. That was where Tinubu came in. He worked with the cabal in all this. He cornered them to his side. He got them to speak his language. Together, they agreed that Tinubu would be delivered as President by whatever means possible. That was what we witnessed in the 2023 presidential election. It was a game of the cabal that dominated and controlled Buhari’s presidency.
The intrigue paid off in the long run. Tinubu became President. The cabal delivered on its self-imposed assignment. But what is the situation the morning after?
As a student of power, Tinubu has short-circuited the force that brought him into office. He has to clip its flapping wings so that he does not get sucked in. He has created his own system that appears to have left the cabal stranded.
Tinubu’s action comes across as revenge against the Buhari order. As President, Buhari savoured nepotism. He northernised the presidency, almost. He did not care a hoot about what anybody thought or felt. Now, Tinubu has taken over. His actions so far seem to be a mockery of what Buhari stood for. If Buhari practised nepotism, Tinubu is almost institutionalizing it. Some describe his own order as yorubanisation. But whatever name it is called, the reality before those who installed Tinubu is that they did not see his ethnic agenda coming. They thought he was cosmopolitan in outlook. He put himself up as a broad-minded one who was at home with all the country’s ethnic nationalities. But that is not what those who promoted his presidential ambition are getting.
What we have on our hands is case of double jeopardy. Buhari came with a lot of promise. He was thought to be the no-nonsense General who would stamp out corruption. He gave Nigerians the impression that he would defeat terror. But all these ended up like a pipe dream. Corruption and terror grew wings under Buhari. They became uncontrollable.
Now, it is Tinubu’s turn. His turn is not coming with the promise of a new and better Nigeria. It has not come with the open door policy that many associated him with. Rather, it has taken even a more worrisome ethnic turn.
But the tragedy here is that no one seems to care. Nigerians are moving on as if this aberration has become the national order. What a way to annihilate a country.