The presidential contest has commenced on a rousing start. There are 25 or so aspirants contending for the ticket of the ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC), just as the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has more than 11 people jostling for the ticket. Some politicians were hesitant at the starting block, at the blast of the whistle, because they awaited their parties to come out clean on a zoning policy. The parties grew heavy and cold feet on the matter. Even as the presidential primaries are weeks or even days away, no party has made a categorical statement on the matter. Although rotation is an agreement at the party level, it cannot halt anybody’s ambition on account of zoning or rotation because the Constitution will hold the back of anyone who runs to it for defense on the matter. No one should lose his or her right to seek election on account of zoning, because the right to vote and be voted for is basic and inalienable. That may explain the hesitation of parties, the major ones, on being categorical on the matter.
Those who vote for zoning lean on the grounds of equity and morality. The argument, and a sound one at that, is that a multi-ethnic and multi-national entity as Nigeria should make do with such political solutions as zoning to douse the tension consequent upon inequity in power, where nations in the entity feel left out in the equation. Morality is no strong factor in the struggle for power. As they say, politics is a game of numbers. Given the deafening silence of the parties, politicians have come to a realisation that the ticket may be an all-comer’s game. Many have emerged to express their interest in the first position in the land.
There is a motley crowd in the race. This development is in contradistinction to the previous elections, where a handful of people stood for party primaries. The party delegates may have lost count. The average observer is confused on the matter. Those who should know insist that there should be no confusion at this point, given that only one person would fly a party’s flag. But 20 is a crowd, making it difficult to produce a winner, although party primaries are won by simple majority devoid of any requirement for geographical spread. As aspirants crisscross the nation to woo their party delegates, hope is high that one of them would breast the tape at the primaries, irrespective of how narrow the margin would turn out.
The body language of the ruling APC seems to say that it is well disposed to letting its ticket head to the South. However, the forgoing has been punctured with the last-minute expression of interest by Senate President Ahmad Lawan, who has thrown a spanner in the works. If he does not buckle at the last minute, and ask his supporters to switch their votes to another aspirant from the South, as being speculated, he could become a major threat to power shift. He pairs with Governor Yahaya Bello as the known aspirants from the North. The heavy role of primordial sentiments on such matters may swing votes from the northern spectrum to them. Speculations are that Lawan is standing in for a major contender from the South, but if such speculation turns out a ruse, then a major shift may occur. The North/South agitation for equity would suffer damage but arguments have come to the fore that the North-East zone, from where Lawan hails, also hold the shorter end of the stick in the comity of zones who have produced Nigeria’s Presidents. Such opinions may buckle in the face of an all-inclusive count (military and civilian) on the matter. Lawan may be a pretender on the matter, just fronting for a real contender. Do not take it to the bank because 24 hours is a long time in politics.
There are other seeming pretenders in the race to scuttle the chances of others, not to win. It would seem to me that the last-minute declaration, and purchase of the N100 million forms in the ruling party by some aspirants in the South-West is a move to deplete the votes of someone from their zone. They seem to me to be political mercenaries on an assignment against a common political enemy. The South-West may hit the rocks on the matter, except the unseen hands have an anointed candidate in the South-West to whom they want to skew the votes. It may well be that Lawan is the surprise candidate with which the North intends to retain power at the centre. My hands were still on the keyboard when the APC announced an extension of date in the sale of expression of interest forms. The bulging bank balance is sweet. More surprises await the party delegates.
The opposition PDP’s situation seems to be clearer by way of clear contention from both divides. In recent times, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, a veteran in the contest, who was said to have missed it by the whiskers in 2019, has been unusually quiet though as aspirant. He has been sending emissaries to delegates rather than see them. He may have become campaign-weary, which is why many people in the opposition party want him to bow out of the race. Some of them are in the contest to deplete his votes. They opine that he abandoned the party shortly after the last elections, and went on a long holiday with his new wife in Dubai. They are tired of a repeater station that Atiku has become. There seems to be a desperation that has led him in and out of the PDP. Buhari had that kind of desperation, which yielded fruit, eventually. But Atiku’s partymates think the ticket is not his exclusive right, which is why at over 70 he ought to take it in good faith and be contended with the political heights he has attained. The pendulum of the party tends to be swinging towards Mr. Peter Obi. His credentials from Anambra State, where he cut waste and reduced cost of governance, has endeared him to the people. But delegates are not in the social media, which is why he has been on the road to sway delegates. He has proven ideas demonstrated in his governance of Anambra State. Atiku knew Obi had the desired stuff and made him vice-presidential candidate in the 2019 election. It would seem that providence wants Obi to lead the nation out of the economic woods. He is certainly not a pretender. Even in the face of jettisoning of zoning, which ought to favour him, Obi can stand to be counted in competence. He can do it.