From: Laide Raheem, Abeokuta

In Ogun State, the race to the Oke Mosan, Abeokuta’s Governor’s Office, in 2027 has begun, albeit clandestinely. Both formidable contenders and political wannabes have started to signify their interest in becoming the successor of the incumbent governor, Dapo Abiodun, who will be stepping down from the enviable seat in 2027 after eight years in the saddle.

Unlike many of the states of the federation, the political terrain of Ogun is peculiar. Oftentimes, it is difficult for political pundits to predict who wears the crown at the end of the day.

Political trends in the state, particularly from 2011 to 2019, can best be described as erratic. Apart from that, two senatorial districts – Ogun East and Ogun Central – have been alternating the governorship seat. Ogun West, which is the third senatorial district, has yet to produce a governor since the state was created in 1976. Of course, the senatorial district, comprising the Yewa-Awori people, has always taken a shot at the coveted position, but the number one seat has always eluded it.

Political juggernauts and illustrious sons of Ogun West, such as the late General Adetunji Olurin (rtd); Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, a House of Representatives member currently representing Yewa North/Imeko-Afon Federal Constituency; Senator Akin Odunsi, member of the 7th Senate and a former House of Representatives member who represented Yewa South/Ipokia Federal Constituency between 2015 and 2019, Abdul-Kabir Adekunle Akinlade, had vied for the position on one political platform or the other, yet the lofty dream has not materialised.

Though, Ogun-West is seriously gearing up and has vowed to pool their resources together in order to break the 49-year-old jinx come 2027, in like manner, Ogun -East and Ogun-Central are poised for battle to ensure the crown is grabbed. Ogun -Central has specifically declared that it is its turn after the expiration of the tenure of Governor Abiodun, who is from the East senatorial district.

2027 in perspective

To others, 2027 is two years away, but to typical Nigerian politicians, particularly those who have political ambitions, angling and jostling for positions in 2027 has been ignited. Political gladiators have started to gather in Ogun. The majority of them might have not started to display their preferred governorship candidates like banners, one thing that is certain is that talks, alignment and re-alignment are ongoing.

In the state, two political parties – the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – are the contending parties. The ongoing defection of stalwarts and chieftains from the opposition to the ruling party notwithstanding, PDP is still very strong in Ogun, especially in the Ogun- East senatorial district. The singular reason for this is the cult-like followership and support of the 2023 governorship candidate of the PDP, Oladipupo Adebutu has in the senatorial district.

Adebutu who pulled an impressive performance in the 2023 poll is from the same senatorial district with Governor Dapo Abiodun, but, he has not hidden his aspiration to gun for the governorship seat once again in 2027. Others in the opposition party might unveil their intention to contend the ticket with Adebutu as time goes on, as at now, he remains the singular governorship aspirant of the PDP in Ogun.

In the ruling APC, politicians and political office holders from the Ogun -West senatorial district dominate the governorship aspiration in the party.

Though they are yet to formally declare their intentions, Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola otherwise known as Yayi and representing Ogun- West senatorial district at the National Assembly; the deputy governor in the state, Mrs. Noimot Salako-Oyedele, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka and the House of Representatives member who is currently representing Yewa South/Ipokia Federal Constituency, Abiodun Isiaq Akinlade, are said to be having their eyes fixed on the governorship seat.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, a native of Egbaland in Ogun -Central, is also being speculated to be a contender for the position.

Also, the name of the young Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani, who is also from Egbaland, is being mentioned to be the joker up the sleeves of the Ogun- Central.

Another name that is synonymous with ‘Egba Agenda’ regarding the 2027 race to Oke Mosan is the immediate past Nigerian Higher Commissioner to the United Kingdom and former Minister of Mines and Steel Development, Ambassador Sarafa Tunji-Isola.

How they stand

Oladipupo Adebutu (PDP)

He is a former House of Representatives member and 2023 PDP governorship candidate. He is from Iperu-Remo, the same home town of the incumbent governor, Dapo Abiodun. He is also from Ogun- East like the governor, but, his nuances and body language strongly indicate that he is ready to contest with other contenders from Ogun -Central and Ogun-West in 2027. His political allies and foot soldiers in the other two senatorial districts have not relented to market Adebutu’s governorship aspirations, even when political rotation might not be in his favour.

Perhaps relying on his strong show in the 2023 general election, Adebutu, who is a son of a business mogul and philanthropist, Sir Kessington Adebutu, remains a force to be reckon with in Ogun as far as the 2027 governorship is concerned. With his father’s philanthropic influence and cordial relationship with who-is-who in Ogun -East and beyond, plus the family’s fat purse, Ladi Adebutu should be watched out for in 2027.

Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (APC)

Senator Adeola otherwise known as Yayi is the Senate Committee Chairman on Appropriations. He is currently representing Ogun -West Senatorial District at the National Assembly. The senator who is a political godson of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has changed the political narrative in the state. Not a stranger to Ogun politics, Yayi has captured the retinue of political leaders and stakeholders, not only in Ogun -West but in the Central and East, through his facilitation of projects and mega empowerment across the strata of the society.

Since his foray into Ogun from Lagos State, where he had represented Lagos -West in the National Assembly, he has been able to grow his political base exponentially. In 2019, his political structure was handed over to the incumbent governor in order to defeat the governorship candidate solidly backed by the then governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun.

The agitation for a Yewa-Awori person to become governor has gained the most traction since the advent of Yayi. Apart from his wide political experience, his closeness to Tinubu’s political dynasty as well as resources at his disposal, have placed him at a vantage position above others jostling for the governorship seat. Also, his facilitation of constituency projects such as roads, schools, hospitals, markets, electricity, town halls and what have you, across Ogun -West and beyond, have further endeared him to the Ogun State people who see him as the likely successor of Governor Dapo Abiodun.

Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (APC)

Popularly known as GNI, Isiaka has contested for the governorship seat in 2011, 2015 and 2019. The incumbent House member representing Yewa North/Imeko-Afon Federal Constituency in the Green Chamber in Abuja, was a governorship poster boy from Ogun- West on three occasions. Before the advent of Yayi, GNI used to be the household name among the people of Yewa-Awori. He is seen by many as a gentleman, intelligent and affable personality who would have been a good governor, if his ambition had been realised.

As the state is inching towards the next general election in 2027, GNI is said to still have his eyes on the governorship seat. Sources disclosed that the Imeko born politician and financial cum corporate management guru is the favourite and preferred candidate of the incumbent governor.

However, the mass acceptance and popularity of Senator Adeola might pose a stumbling block to GNI’s governorship aspiration. But like they stay in the political circle, one plus one might not be two. Nothing is cast in concrete and iron yet.

Noimot Salako-Oyedele (APC)

The incumbent Ogun State Deputy Governor is from the Awori section of Ogun- West Senatorial District. She was earlier rumoured to be angling for the senate in 2027, her interest to succeed her boss filtered into town recently. Though, no concrete evidence of her governorship aspiration has surfaced yet, the deputy governor is gathered to be consulting widely, throwing up the voting strength of the Awori people to canvass support for her aspiration.

Abiodun Isiaq Akinlade (APC)

Akinlade is another experienced politician from Ogun -West. By 2027, he would have spent 16 years cumulatively in the House of Representatives, representing Yewa South/Ipokia Federal Constituency.

The Owode-Yewa born lawmaker has aspired to govern the state in the past, but his ambition never sailed through. An astute politician, he is one of the contenders for the number one seat in Ogun State. Since the whistle for the 2027 has not been sounded, his aspiration is being co-ordinated underground. His foot soldiers and supporters, have however begun to rally relevant stakeholders in the state to support Akinlade’s lifelong ambition.

Wale Edun (APC)

The Minister of Finance and the Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun hails from Egbaland, Ogun Central Senatorial District. One of the foremost economic and finance engine rooms of President Tinubu-led administration, Edun’s name is being bandied around by politicians as the president’s favourite to replace Governor Abiodun in 2027.

The Minister, who over the years, has played his politics and carried out his business in Lagos, having been a close ally of President Tinubu, is yet to overtly show interest to be Ogun Governor. But findings indicated that he might be dragged into the race. He is favourably seen as the ace of the sleeves of Ogun Central to counter Senator Adeola’s political strides across the state. To the people of Ogun Central who feel it is their turn to produce the governor, Edun, who is also a part of Tinubu’s political dynasty, remains the best bet to tackle Adeola from Ogun West.

Ambassador Sarafa Tunji-Isola (APC)

The former Nigerian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom is a prominent politician of Egba extraction in Ogun State. His vast knowledge of the intricacies of Ogun politics and his experience as a versatile political office holder would be a plus for the former Minister of Mines and Steel Development.

He had started his consultation for the 2027 governorship earlier, which initially made him the symbol of ‘Egba Agenda’. His aspirations had gained traction and wild consultation within and without his party, but the flame started to burn slowly with the foray of Senator Adeola into Ogun Central.

Also, the entrance of other potential governorship hopefuls seems to have slowed down the momentum for the Ambassador. Regardless, Sarafa Tunji-Isola remains a strong force in the Ogun APC and an illustrious Egba son who has the capacity to become the next governor in the state.

Kemi Adeosun (APC)

She served as a Commissioner for Finance in the administration of the former governor in the state, Senator Ibikunle Amosun and later as the finance minister during the first term of former President Muhammadu Buhari. A native of Egbaland, Kemi Adeosun is not seen as a strong contender for the number one seat in the state.

Though the grapevine faintly talked about her governorship aspiration, she has not involved in politics in the state, at least overtly, to indicate the seriousness or otherwise of her reported aspiration.

Presently in Ogun State, there is grave silence and palpable lull in the political activities of both the APC and PDP. But the coast will become clearer, especially for the ruling party after its congress scheduled for September or October, 2025.